ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Anderson/Hester *	0.67647	0.48238	14.0665	0.2924	308.021	374	253	121	178	191
2	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70625	0.48649	13.5953	0.9234	290.005	320	226	94	144	152
3	Ashby AccuRatings	0.71123	0.44915	13.6017	0.2489	289.030	374	266	108	159	195
4	Atomic Football	0.70053	0.48238	13.2873	0.6974	280.256	374	262	112	178	191
5	Austin Sports	0.71658	0.53261	13.1223	1.0091	271.329	374	268	106	196	172
6	Bassett Model	0.69408	0.49834	13.7555	1.4935	295.793	304	211	93	150	151
7	Beck Elo	0.70588	0.45528	13.6206	0.4917	288.377	374	264	110	168	201
8	BG Sports	0.71658	0.52247	13.3303	1.6273	280.379	374	268	106	186	170
9	Bihl System	0.71850	0.50543	13.3258	0.8312	276.692	373	268	105	186	182
10	Billingsley	0.67914	0.49051	14.0364	-0.0580	304.272	374	254	120	181	188
11	Billingsley+	0.69251	0.43207	13.6324	0.3205	291.236	374	259	115	159	209
12	Born Power Index	0.71390	0.53117	13.0282	0.2015	272.932	374	267	107	196	173
13	Brent Craig	0.70321	0.51685	13.9719	-0.2634	304.553	374	263	111	184	172
14	Brent Craig 2	0.73529	0.51268	13.5293	0.8184	297.273	374	275	99	182	173
15	Catherwood Ratings	0.71850	0.55301	13.1046	0.9276	274.295	373	268	105	193	156
16	CF By the Numbers	0.71003	0.52286	13.3469	1.2493	282.848	369	262	107	183	167
17	Computer Adjusted Line	0.72118	0.52101	12.8928	0.5845	266.538	373	269	104	62	57
18	Covers.com	0.68161	0.51152	14.1016	-0.6704	307.182	223	152	71	111	106
19	CPA Rankings	0.71925	0.54891	12.9709	0.8027	269.022	374	269	105	202	166
20	CPA Retro	0.66043	0.49593	14.9320	0.2915	346.472	374	247	127	183	186
21	Dave Congrove	0.70241	0.50000	13.5489	0.3296	292.204	373	262	111	184	184
22	Dokter Entropy	0.72727	0.44687	13.3852	0.9033	275.765	374	272	102	164	203
23	DP Dwiggins	0.72170	0.47867	13.9752	-2.3927	298.551	212	153	59	101	110
24	Dunkel Index	0.71925	0.50000	13.3136	0.4144	287.553	374	269	105	184	184
25	Edward Kambour	0.71658	0.49864	13.3163	0.4032	282.868	374	268	106	184	185
26	Fort Heresy Model	0.65385	0.40385	18.0677	0.2135	467.854	52	34	18	21	31
27	Hank Trexler	0.71429	0.52542	16.6846	1.8814	487.628	371	265	106	186	168
28	Howell	0.70053	0.50420	13.5816	-0.1403	289.530	374	262	112	180	177
29	Keeper	0.69251	0.51491	13.8972	1.8439	301.985	374	259	115	190	179
30	Laffaye XWP	0.71123	0.51781	13.5190	-1.6398	292.491	374	266	108	189	176
31	Laz Index	0.72193	0.51220	13.2516	-0.0286	274.811	374	270	104	189	180
32	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.67647	0.50949	15.7607	-0.0259	389.982	374	253	121	188	181
33	Lee Burdorf	0.71658	0.47411	13.5516	0.4527	290.833	374	268	106	174	193
34	Line (opening)	0.71850	0.50495	13.0764	0.2802	272.726	373	268	105	153	150
35	Line (updated)	0.71390		12.9465	0.7219	268.845	374	267	107
36	Linear Regression	0.72193	0.55978	13.1373	0.2985	275.692	374	270	104	206	162
37	Logistic Regression	0.66310	0.49864	16.8715	-2.7261	432.490	374	248	126	184	185
38	Marsee	0.69786	0.47727	13.6203	2.0000	291.075	374	261	113	168	184
39	Martien Maas	0.67112	0.52316	17.0104	0.5056	431.875	374	251	123	192	175
40	Massey *	0.67112	0.48238	14.4457	0.3929	317.676	374	251	123	178	191
41	Massey Consensus	0.71123	0.49593	13.5384	0.5474	289.131	374	266	108	183	186
42	Massey Ratings	0.71658	0.50678	13.3005	0.1502	280.277	374	268	106	187	182
43	Moore Power Ratings	0.70856	0.50000	13.3196	0.0099	281.450	374	265	109	184	184
44	NationalSportsRankings	0.72460	0.52304	12.9380	0.4164	268.838	374	271	103	193	176
45	NutShell Combo	0.69519	0.45109	13.8380	0.1141	294.126	374	260	114	166	202
46	Nutshell Girl	0.64171	0.44986	15.0050	-0.1869	347.820	374	240	134	166	203
47	NutShell Sports	0.71123	0.50407	13.2851	0.2875	279.859	374	266	108	186	183
48	Payne Power Ratings	0.70053	0.49728	13.4822	-0.1967	288.057	374	262	112	183	185
49	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70053	0.50949	13.4792	0.5577	286.507	374	262	112	188	181
50	Pigskin Index	0.70053	0.46742	13.3183	-0.0931	278.572	374	262	112	165	188
51	Regression-Based Analys	0.68182	0.47727	13.9385	1.3449	299.816	374	255	119	168	184
52	Sagarin	0.70588	0.47696	13.5564	0.4105	285.853	374	264	110	176	193
53	Sagarin Elo	0.66578	0.44715	14.4941	0.3699	318.212	374	249	125	165	204
54	Sagarin Predictive	0.72193	0.52846	13.2491	0.4587	276.123	374	270	104	195	174
55	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.70856	0.44986	13.8056	0.2438	291.906	374	265	109	166	203
56	Sportrends	0.70924	0.48406	13.6386	0.0924	300.988	368	261	107	167	178
57	Stat Fox	0.71658	0.49563	13.2032	1.4228	277.963	374	268	106	170	173
58	Stephen Kerns	0.71123	0.52304	13.1714	0.3917	273.772	374	266	108	193	176
59	Super List	0.69519	0.51359	14.0204	0.6309	310.854	374	260	114	189	179
60	System Average	0.71925	0.49457	13.1392	0.3928	271.719	374	269	105	182	186
61	System Median	0.71925	0.50000	13.1648	0.3670	271.936	374	269	105	183	183
62	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.71390	0.46240	14.3182	-1.5374	321.184	374	267	107	166	193
63	Thompson SPRS	0.71006	0.48476	13.8522	0.2723	308.826	338	240	98	159	169
64	Thompson SPRS2	0.72781	0.48615	13.2572	0.4909	282.541	338	246	92	158	167
65	TW Rankings	0.68966	0.50327	14.6445	-1.7687	342.185	319	220	99	154	152
66	Warren Claassen	0.69519	0.51359	13.5187	-0.1166	288.710	374	260	114	189	179
67	Wolfe *	0.67380	0.47826	14.5100	0.5497	320.024	374	252	122	176	192


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases