ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Linear Regression	0.72193	0.55978	13.1373	0.2985	275.692	374	270	104	206	162
2	CPA Rankings	0.71925	0.54891	12.9709	0.8027	269.022	374	269	105	202	166
3	Born Power Index	0.71390	0.53117	13.0282	0.2015	272.932	374	267	107	196	173
4	Austin Sports	0.71658	0.53261	13.1223	1.0091	271.329	374	268	106	196	172
5	Sagarin Predictive	0.72193	0.52846	13.2491	0.4587	276.123	374	270	104	195	174
6	Catherwood Ratings	0.71850	0.55301	13.1046	0.9276	274.295	373	268	105	193	156
7	NationalSportsRankings	0.72460	0.52304	12.9380	0.4164	268.838	374	271	103	193	176
8	Stephen Kerns	0.71123	0.52304	13.1714	0.3917	273.772	374	266	108	193	176
9	Martien Maas	0.67112	0.52316	17.0104	0.5056	431.875	374	251	123	192	175
10	Keeper	0.69251	0.51491	13.8972	1.8439	301.985	374	259	115	190	179
11	Warren Claassen	0.69519	0.51359	13.5187	-0.1166	288.710	374	260	114	189	179
12	Laz Index	0.72193	0.51220	13.2516	-0.0286	274.811	374	270	104	189	180
13	Laffaye XWP	0.71123	0.51781	13.5190	-1.6398	292.491	374	266	108	189	176
14	Super List	0.69519	0.51359	14.0204	0.6309	310.854	374	260	114	189	179
15	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70053	0.50949	13.4792	0.5577	286.507	374	262	112	188	181
16	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.67647	0.50949	15.7607	-0.0259	389.982	374	253	121	188	181
17	Massey Ratings	0.71658	0.50678	13.3005	0.1502	280.277	374	268	106	187	182
18	NutShell Sports	0.71123	0.50407	13.2851	0.2875	279.859	374	266	108	186	183
19	BG Sports	0.71658	0.52247	13.3303	1.6273	280.379	374	268	106	186	170
20	Bihl System	0.71850	0.50543	13.3258	0.8312	276.692	373	268	105	186	182
21	Hank Trexler	0.71429	0.52542	16.6846	1.8814	487.628	371	265	106	186	168
22	Brent Craig	0.70321	0.51685	13.9719	-0.2634	304.553	374	263	111	184	172
23	Moore Power Ratings	0.70856	0.50000	13.3196	0.0099	281.450	374	265	109	184	184
24	Dave Congrove	0.70241	0.50000	13.5489	0.3296	292.204	373	262	111	184	184
25	Edward Kambour	0.71658	0.49864	13.3163	0.4032	282.868	374	268	106	184	185
26	Logistic Regression	0.66310	0.49864	16.8715	-2.7261	432.490	374	248	126	184	185
27	Dunkel Index	0.71925	0.50000	13.3136	0.4144	287.553	374	269	105	184	184
28	CPA Retro	0.66043	0.49593	14.9320	0.2915	346.472	374	247	127	183	186
29	Massey Consensus	0.71123	0.49593	13.5384	0.5474	289.131	374	266	108	183	186
30	Payne Power Ratings	0.70053	0.49728	13.4822	-0.1967	288.057	374	262	112	183	185
31	System Median	0.71925	0.50000	13.1648	0.3670	271.936	374	269	105	183	183
32	CF By the Numbers	0.71003	0.52286	13.3469	1.2493	282.848	369	262	107	183	167
33	System Average	0.71925	0.49457	13.1392	0.3928	271.719	374	269	105	182	186
34	Brent Craig 2	0.73529	0.51268	13.5293	0.8184	297.273	374	275	99	182	173
35	Billingsley	0.67914	0.49051	14.0364	-0.0580	304.272	374	254	120	181	188
36	Howell	0.70053	0.50420	13.5816	-0.1403	289.530	374	262	112	180	177
37	Massey *	0.67112	0.48238	14.4457	0.3929	317.676	374	251	123	178	191
38	Atomic Football	0.70053	0.48238	13.2873	0.6974	280.256	374	262	112	178	191
39	Anderson/Hester *	0.67647	0.48238	14.0665	0.2924	308.021	374	253	121	178	191
40	Sagarin	0.70588	0.47696	13.5564	0.4105	285.853	374	264	110	176	193
41	Wolfe *	0.67380	0.47826	14.5100	0.5497	320.024	374	252	122	176	192
42	Lee Burdorf	0.71658	0.47411	13.5516	0.4527	290.833	374	268	106	174	193
43	Stat Fox	0.71658	0.49563	13.2032	1.4228	277.963	374	268	106	170	173
44	Regression-Based Analys	0.68182	0.47727	13.9385	1.3449	299.816	374	255	119	168	184
45	Marsee	0.69786	0.47727	13.6203	2.0000	291.075	374	261	113	168	184
46	Beck Elo	0.70588	0.45528	13.6206	0.4917	288.377	374	264	110	168	201
47	Sportrends	0.70924	0.48406	13.6386	0.0924	300.988	368	261	107	167	178
48	Nutshell Girl	0.64171	0.44986	15.0050	-0.1869	347.820	374	240	134	166	203
49	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.70856	0.44986	13.8056	0.2438	291.906	374	265	109	166	203
50	NutShell Combo	0.69519	0.45109	13.8380	0.1141	294.126	374	260	114	166	202
51	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.71390	0.46240	14.3182	-1.5374	321.184	374	267	107	166	193
52	Sagarin Elo	0.66578	0.44715	14.4941	0.3699	318.212	374	249	125	165	204
53	Pigskin Index	0.70053	0.46742	13.3183	-0.0931	278.572	374	262	112	165	188
54	Dokter Entropy	0.72727	0.44687	13.3852	0.9033	275.765	374	272	102	164	203
55	Thompson SPRS	0.71006	0.48476	13.8522	0.2723	308.826	338	240	98	159	169
56	Ashby AccuRatings	0.71123	0.44915	13.6017	0.2489	289.030	374	266	108	159	195
57	Billingsley+	0.69251	0.43207	13.6324	0.3205	291.236	374	259	115	159	209
58	Thompson SPRS2	0.72781	0.48615	13.2572	0.4909	282.541	338	246	92	158	167
59	TW Rankings	0.68966	0.50327	14.6445	-1.7687	342.185	319	220	99	154	152
60	Line (opening)	0.71850	0.50495	13.0764	0.2802	272.726	373	268	105	153	150
61	Bassett Model	0.69408	0.49834	13.7555	1.4935	295.793	304	211	93	150	151
62	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70625	0.48649	13.5953	0.9234	290.005	320	226	94	144	152
63	Covers.com	0.68161	0.51152	14.1016	-0.6704	307.182	223	152	71	111	106
64	DP Dwiggins	0.72170	0.47867	13.9752	-2.3927	298.551	212	153	59	101	110
65	Computer Adjusted Line	0.72118	0.52101	12.8928	0.5845	266.538	373	269	104	62	57
66	Fort Heresy Model	0.65385	0.40385	18.0677	0.2135	467.854	52	34	18	21	31
67	Line (updated)	0.71390		12.9465	0.7219	268.845	374	267	107


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases