ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2011 Season Totals

Through 2012-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Covers.com	0.73846	0.53170	12.5168	-0.8890	251.875	715	528	187	369	325
2	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.73846	0.51395	13.0923	-2.2559	275.028	715	528	187	350	331
3	Dunkel Index	0.73810	0.55524	12.3190	-0.1385	244.870	714	527	187	392	314
4	Line (opening)	0.73427	0.51757	12.1308	-0.4231	232.140	715	525	190	324	302
5	Sagarin	0.73427	0.50636	12.6964	-0.8040	254.763	715	525	190	358	349
6	Dokter Entropy	0.73287	0.47585	12.4210	-0.0919	239.776	715	524	191	335	369
7	System Average	0.73287	0.48939	12.2337	-0.6421	235.493	715	524	191	346	361
8	Line (updated)	0.73287		12.0147	-0.1909	226.860	715	524	191
9	Computer Adjusted Line	0.73287	0.51376	12.0133	-0.2566	226.512	715	524	191	112	106
10	Hank Trexler	0.73249	0.49925	12.5098	-2.1961	248.787	714	523	191	335	336
11	Compughter Ratings	0.73149	0.46324	13.0045	-1.1448	257.441	689	504	185	315	365
12	Ashby AccuRatings	0.73147	0.51880	12.3007	-0.8317	236.688	715	523	192	345	320
13	System Median	0.73147	0.50791	12.1874	-0.6284	234.246	715	523	192	353	342
14	Howell	0.73147	0.50441	12.6706	-0.9083	252.541	715	523	192	343	337
15	Catherwood Ratings	0.73147	0.47929	12.5930	0.3329	249.407	715	523	192	324	352
16	DP Dwiggins	0.73088	0.48882	13.0247	-3.6504	266.116	680	497	183	328	343
17	Moore Power Ratings	0.73007	0.52051	12.3958	-0.6944	249.083	715	522	193	368	339
18	Stat Fox	0.73007	0.47917	12.5595	0.4814	248.750	715	522	193	322	350
19	NutShell Combo	0.72889	0.49551	13.0385	-0.7936	269.740	675	492	183	331	337
20	NutShell Sports	0.72867	0.52482	13.7991	-0.2042	306.605	715	521	194	370	335
21	Edward Kambour	0.72867	0.50142	12.6830	-0.3835	254.024	715	521	194	354	352
22	Pigskin Index	0.72727	0.50677	12.2895	-0.7927	238.076	715	520	195	337	328
23	NationalSportsRankings	0.72698	0.49840	12.3852	-0.5440	242.210	630	458	172	311	313
24	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.72689	0.52000	12.5895	-0.0388	251.853	714	519	195	364	336
25	Betgrinders.com	0.72637	0.52921	12.2997	-0.5388	231.751	603	438	165	308	274
26	Stephen Kerns	0.72449	0.44494	13.5052	-0.7895	278.254	686	497	189	299	373
27	CPA Rankings	0.72448	0.48159	13.1876	-0.0608	266.174	715	518	197	340	366
28	Super List	0.72448	0.49646	14.1629	0.1096	312.194	715	518	197	351	356
29	Regression-Based Analys	0.72448	0.51282	13.0084	0.4182	268.664	715	518	197	340	323
30	Laffaye RWP	0.72308	0.48232	14.1403	-3.9006	317.591	715	517	198	341	366
31	Sagarin Predictive	0.72308	0.47525	12.6601	-0.7101	249.436	715	517	198	336	371
32	Born Power Index	0.72308	0.51558	12.7746	-0.6030	258.575	715	517	198	364	342
33	Laz Index	0.72308	0.46317	12.6641	-1.0618	250.244	715	517	198	327	379
34	Marsee	0.72269	0.49710	13.3165	1.0084	277.860	714	516	198	343	347
35	Brent Craig	0.72269	0.50567	12.4026	-0.0460	248.306	714	516	198	357	349
36	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72129	0.50665	12.4800	-0.5249	248.054	714	515	199	343	334
37	Massey Consensus	0.71888	0.49008	12.9129	-0.3880	262.139	715	514	201	346	360
38	Dave Congrove	0.71748	0.53182	12.4172	-1.0654	243.885	715	513	202	376	331
39	Warren Claassen	0.71748	0.49081	13.4227	-1.3066	283.242	715	513	202	347	360
40	Sagarin Elo	0.71608	0.51206	13.3773	-0.8807	285.917	715	512	203	361	344
41	Nutshell Girl	0.71469	0.49364	13.7934	-1.4808	300.910	715	511	204	349	358
42	Laffaye XWP	0.71469	0.49003	13.6109	-2.7770	295.344	715	511	204	344	358
43	Beck Elo	0.71469	0.48867	12.8294	-0.5951	261.478	715	511	204	345	361
44	PerformanZ Ratings	0.71329	0.49433	13.6267	-0.6644	285.611	715	510	205	349	357
45	Billingsley+	0.71329	0.49364	12.6477	-0.7910	249.902	715	510	205	349	358
46	Atomic Football	0.71189	0.50495	12.3180	-0.4774	238.527	715	509	206	357	350
47	Payne Power Ratings	0.71189	0.46393	13.1180	-0.1259	265.730	715	509	206	328	379
48	Keeper	0.71189	0.50071	13.3980	0.5547	282.987	715	509	206	351	350
49	Lee Burdorf	0.71049	0.49858	12.8484	-0.6791	261.331	715	508	207	351	353
50	Bassett Model	0.70977	0.48097	13.2666	0.2193	270.110	665	472	193	316	341
51	Billingsley	0.70909	0.51558	13.1573	-0.7332	276.873	715	507	208	364	342
52	Massey Ratings	0.70909	0.47875	12.6193	-0.3081	249.940	715	507	208	338	368
53	Bias Free Rankings	0.70712	0.49330	12.9153	-1.5560	256.136	379	268	111	184	189
54	Sportrends	0.70597	0.50590	13.4091	-0.9134	286.859	704	497	207	343	335
55	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.70541	0.49436	13.0182	-0.7282	265.886	628	443	185	307	314
56	Colley Rankings *	0.70526	0.52533	12.9895	-1.3711	268.107	380	268	112	197	178
57	Anderson/Hester *	0.70526	0.52267	12.9407	-1.3138	268.741	380	268	112	196	179
58	Martien Maas	0.70526	0.53333	16.5842	-0.6973	431.091	380	268	112	200	175
59	Bihl System	0.70492	0.50356	12.5864	-0.4074	246.008	427	301	126	212	209
60	football.loudsound.org	0.70435	0.50154	13.4145	-5.0261	284.157	345	243	102	163	162
61	Massey *	0.70000	0.53067	13.0379	-1.0785	275.920	380	266	114	199	176
62	Wolfe *	0.70000	0.51200	13.2549	-0.8268	281.214	380	266	114	192	183
63	Logistic Regression	0.69737	0.52533	14.8958	-4.5280	371.237	380	265	115	197	178
64	Linear Regression	0.69737	0.49067	12.9274	-0.9330	258.805	380	265	115	184	191
65	CPA Retro	0.69510	0.50919	13.6356	-0.2707	294.315	715	497	218	360	347
66	Pointshare Ratings	0.69363	0.50175	13.8522	1.0425	303.568	581	403	178	286	284
67	CF By the Numbers	0.68213	0.49262	13.0704	0.0258	261.782	582	397	185	267	275
68	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.67368	0.52000	15.4754	-0.2857	388.178	380	256	124	195	180
69	TW Rankings	0.00000	0.00000	25.0000	-25.0000	625.000	1	0	1	0	1


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases