ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2008 Season Totals

System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
Anderson/Hester *	0.70710	0.47748	13.8421	-1.3609	320.219	338	239	99	159	174
ARGH Power Ratings	0.73259	0.47858	13.2695	0.1560	288.412	718	526	192	324	353
Ashby AccuRatings	0.73816	0.46875	13.1393	0.4153	279.280	718	530	188	315	357
Atomic Football	0.75209	0.49215	12.8479	0.0911	266.434	718	540	178	345	356
Bassett Model	0.69948	0.47803	13.3794	-0.1183	290.850	579	405	174	272	297
Beck Elo	0.72284	0.47863	13.4931	-0.4882	294.166	718	519	199	336	366
Bihl System	0.73708	0.50114	13.0810	-0.3526	274.910	445	328	117	219	218
Billingsly	0.68663	0.45739	14.4297	-0.5499	335.311	718	493	225	322	382
Born Power Index	0.72981	0.50710	13.2065	-0.1040	280.310	718	524	194	357	347
Catherwood Ratings	0.70455	0.51701	13.0714	-0.5325	279.343	308	217	91	152	142
Colley Rankings *	0.70175	0.47917	13.9185	-0.9162	320.895	342	240	102	161	175
Computer Adjusted Line	0.73816	0.47893	12.6072	0.0738	256.741	718	530	188	125	136
Covers.com	0.73538	0.50857	13.0702	-0.5363	278.854	718	528	190	356	344
CPA Rankings	0.74930	0.52489	13.3203	-0.2382	289.026	718	538	180	369	334
CPA Retro	0.71588	0.48153	14.1334	-0.1177	326.773	718	514	204	339	365
Dave Congrove	0.72423	0.50356	13.2581	-0.8393	285.592	718	520	198	354	349
Dokter Entropy	0.74652	0.47585	13.1575	0.5936	281.082	718	536	182	335	369
DP Dwiggins	0.71429	0.50903	13.5109	-3.0640	296.301	567	405	162	282	272
Dunkel Index	0.73603	0.50427	12.9018	0.6649	273.168	716	527	189	354	348
Edward Kambour	0.74591	0.49469	13.3416	0.4994	287.046	673	502	171	326	333
Hank Trexler	0.72981	0.47939	13.0362	-0.3343	275.688	718	524	194	314	341
Harmon Forcast	0.73780	0.49178	12.9010	-0.1646	270.614	717	529	188	329	340
Howell	0.72563	0.49102	13.3831	-0.0236	291.982	718	521	197	328	340
Imes Comprank	0.72331	0.48308	13.7986	-0.3628	304.556	665	481	184	314	336
Keeper	0.73120	0.48295	13.4905	0.4086	288.850	718	525	193	340	364
Laz Index	0.74234	0.50285	13.1206	-0.6036	282.273	718	533	185	353	349
Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65789	0.49258	16.1102	-1.1122	412.168	342	225	117	166	171
Lee Burdorf	0.73677	0.49785	13.2455	-0.3589	281.820	718	529	189	348	351
Line (opening)	0.72905	0.47458	12.7884	0.0216	264.500	716	522	194	280	310
Line (updated)	0.73816		12.5912	0.1024	255.867	718	530	188
Linear Regression	0.74561	0.50148	13.3796	-0.8116	288.757	342	255	87	169	168
Logistic Regression	0.67251	0.49852	19.9079	-4.7427	967.244	342	230	112	168	169
Marsee	0.72065	0.49606	13.5691	1.3284	298.360	673	485	188	315	320
Martien Maas	0.70221	0.49487	14.0884	-0.1875	328.068	497	349	148	241	246
Massey BCS *	0.71637	0.49258	13.5732	-0.8457	313.232	342	245	97	166	171
Massey Consensus	0.74095	0.49148	13.6242	0.1080	300.364	718	532	186	346	358
Moore Power Ratings	0.74373	0.49148	13.1593	-0.4516	281.757	718	534	184	346	358
Nutshell Girl	0.70760	0.50742	13.5932	-1.5051	302.535	342	242	100	171	166
NutShell Retro	0.71727	0.47937	13.5750	0.0755	299.352	718	515	203	337	366
NutShell Sports	0.74373	0.50852	13.1522	0.0385	283.134	718	534	184	358	346
PerformanZ Ratings	0.73955	0.47511	13.9043	-0.4733	308.905	718	531	187	334	369
Pigskin Index	0.73625	0.45692	13.0734	-0.2268	275.667	709	522	187	297	353
Sagarin	0.73677	0.48506	13.3644	-0.4172	291.403	718	529	189	341	362
Sagarin Elo	0.70613	0.48011	14.1104	-0.3101	326.758	718	507	211	338	366
Sagarin Predictive	0.73677	0.49716	13.2170	-0.4181	280.841	718	529	189	350	354
Sportrends	0.69350	0.49564	14.8414	-1.3575	367.346	708	491	217	341	347
Stat Fox	0.74791	0.53881	12.8705	0.9515	273.741	718	537	181	361	309
Stephen Kerns	0.72385	0.53912	13.6591	-2.9885	305.183	717	519	198	379	324
Super List	0.73398	0.48222	15.3791	0.4898	369.664	718	527	191	339	364
System Average	0.75487	0.48080	12.9140	-0.2240	270.949	718	542	176	338	365
System Median	0.75487	0.48058	12.8794	-0.2401	270.866	718	542	176	334	361
Tom Benson	0.69923	0.48148	14.6618	-1.0881	347.855	522	365	157	247	266
Warren Claassen	0.72563	0.49075	14.0176	-1.0525	316.050	718	521	197	345	358
Wolfe *	0.70175	0.51039	14.0233	-0.3427	329.651	342	240	102	172	165


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases