ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Last Week

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Lee Burdorf	0.74286	0.58824	11.8689	-2.7369	221.304	35	26	9	20	14
2	NationalSportsRankings	0.71429	0.67647	11.9823	-2.6286	231.383	35	25	10	23	11
3	Laffaye XWP	0.71429	0.54545	13.6769	-4.2711	293.903	35	25	10	18	15
4	Dunkel Index	0.68571	0.55882	15.0151	-1.1317	397.290	35	24	11	19	15
5	ARGH Power Ratings	0.68571	0.57576	13.4000	-2.7143	284.075	35	24	11	19	14
6	Catherwood Ratings	0.68571	0.58824	13.0857	-2.5143	265.486	35	24	11	20	14
7	Keeper	0.68571	0.55882	12.9354	1.3554	270.697	35	24	11	19	15
8	Moore Power Ratings	0.68571	0.47059	12.8737	-3.0869	255.441	35	24	11	16	18
9	Pigskin Index	0.68571	0.52941	12.8000	-3.7126	265.026	35	24	11	18	16
10	Brent Craig 2	0.68571	0.61765	12.6000	-2.2000	244.143	35	24	11	21	13
11	Stat Fox	0.68571	0.58824	12.1711	-2.5700	230.139	35	24	11	20	14
12	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65714	0.50000	14.2331	-0.0274	301.535	35	23	12	17	17
13	Warren Claassen	0.65714	0.52941	14.0697	-3.2783	307.483	35	23	12	18	16
14	Covers.com	0.65714	0.54545	14.0100	-4.6911	313.705	35	23	12	18	15
15	Howell	0.65714	0.58824	13.6143	-2.2714	291.450	35	23	12	20	14
16	Bihl System	0.65714	0.64706	13.3703	-3.2286	266.481	35	23	12	22	12
17	Edward Kambour	0.65714	0.58824	13.3020	-3.2289	275.809	35	23	12	20	14
18	System Median	0.65714	0.67647	13.1840	-3.0143	262.723	35	23	12	23	11
19	Sagarin Predictive	0.65714	0.58824	13.1383	-3.2137	263.636	35	23	12	20	14
20	Linear Regression	0.65714	0.64706	12.9671	-2.9174	258.118	35	23	12	22	12
21	Payne Power Ratings	0.62857	0.57576	13.8534	-3.2637	293.564	35	22	13	19	14
22	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.62857	0.51515	13.9714	-4.8286	298.543	35	22	13	17	16
23	Dokter Entropy	0.62857	0.51515	14.0666	-3.2837	291.095	35	22	13	17	16
24	Billingsley	0.62857	0.47059	14.2286	-3.6857	304.732	35	22	13	16	18
25	Atomic Football	0.62857	0.41176	14.2446	-3.0023	302.732	35	22	13	14	20
26	Computer Adjusted Line	0.62857	0.45455	13.5286	-2.3286	286.921	35	22	13	5	6
27	Laz Index	0.62857	0.55882	13.4929	-3.5963	280.209	35	22	13	19	15
28	Stephen Kerns	0.62857	0.47059	13.3200	-2.4457	275.575	35	22	13	16	18
29	Born Power Index	0.62857	0.61765	11.8826	-2.3911	228.543	35	22	13	21	13
30	CPA Rankings	0.62857	0.61765	13.1009	-2.4734	258.624	35	22	13	21	13
31	BG Sports	0.62857	0.60606	13.1286	3.7571	277.864	35	22	13	20	13
32	Austin Sports	0.62857	0.58824	13.2674	-2.9817	261.529	35	22	13	20	14
33	Marsee	0.62857	0.60606	13.2857	-3.1143	269.629	35	22	13	20	13
34	Regression-Based Analys	0.60000	0.46875	14.2571	-1.7429	309.171	35	21	14	15	17
35	Sportrends	0.60000	0.50000	14.0000	-3.6571	293.357	35	21	14	15	15
36	Massey Consensus	0.60000	0.55882	13.9729	-3.2980	300.304	35	21	14	19	15
37	Hank Trexler	0.60000	0.48485	13.8857	-4.2286	301.429	35	21	14	16	17
38	Sagarin	0.60000	0.58824	13.8169	-3.1580	286.390	35	21	14	20	14
39	Dave Congrove	0.60000	0.52941	13.7889	-2.6626	279.887	35	21	14	18	16
40	Line (updated)	0.60000		13.4571	-2.2000	287.471	35	21	14
41	PerformanZ Ratings	0.60000	0.52941	13.3783	-2.9697	280.594	35	21	14	18	16
42	System Average	0.60000	0.61765	13.3197	-2.8540	267.091	35	21	14	21	13
43	NutShell Combo	0.60000	0.67647	13.1703	-3.1063	250.220	35	21	14	23	11
44	Anderson/Hester *	0.57143	0.50000	14.6220	-3.6763	331.878	35	20	15	17	17
45	Sagarin Elo	0.57143	0.52941	14.9189	-2.9029	328.797	35	20	15	18	16
46	Massey *	0.57143	0.52941	14.9674	-2.5463	328.660	35	20	15	18	16
47	Martien Maas	0.57143	0.50000	16.4829	-0.0771	394.255	35	20	15	17	17
48	Ashby AccuRatings	0.57143	0.43750	14.1143	-3.3143	293.486	35	20	15	14	18
49	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.57143	0.44118	14.1000	-3.9263	292.560	35	20	15	15	19
50	Beck Elo	0.57143	0.41176	13.7823	-4.3989	281.370	35	20	15	14	20
51	Brent Craig	0.57143	0.51515	13.5714	-3.8857	311.214	35	20	15	17	16
52	CF By the Numbers	0.57143	0.54545	13.3429	-1.5143	271.057	35	20	15	18	15
53	NutShell Sports	0.57143	0.61765	12.0786	-1.3831	217.640	35	20	15	21	13
54	Massey Ratings	0.54286	0.55882	13.5434	-2.8331	270.046	35	19	16	19	15
55	Logistic Regression	0.54286	0.44118	15.2091	-6.3983	337.549	35	19	16	15	19
56	CPA Retro	0.54286	0.41176	15.1217	-4.1486	354.419	35	19	16	14	20
57	Wolfe *	0.54286	0.52941	14.6777	-2.8269	323.879	35	19	16	18	16
58	Line (opening)	0.54286	0.40000	14.0571	-2.2000	296.886	35	19	16	12	18
59	Nutshell Girl	0.51429	0.44118	14.6617	-4.8326	314.933	35	18	17	15	19
60	Billingsley+	0.51429	0.44118	13.5906	-3.1797	266.308	35	18	17	15	19
61	Super List	0.51429	0.52941	14.2900	-1.1643	298.119	35	18	17	18	16
62	Bassett Model	0.61905	0.65000	13.8262	-2.1414	307.923	21	13	8	13	7


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases