ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2009 Retrodiction Results

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul
1	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.84314	8.3487	0.2736	120.486	714	602	112
2	Edward Kambour	0.82913	8.7623	0.5477	129.109	714	592	122
3	Least Squares	0.80532	9.4972	0.2247	148.888	714	575	139
4	CPA Rankings	0.79132	9.5698	-0.2067	150.610	714	565	149
5	Sagarin Predictive	0.80392	9.7150	0.7855	153.902	714	574	140
6	System Average	0.82633	9.6524	0.3864	154.135	714	590	124
7	system Median	0.82493	9.6589	0.3472	154.646	714	589	125
8	Stephen Kerns	0.79552	9.8010	0.9677	157.736	714	568	146
9	Born Power Index	0.78992	9.9041	1.0303	158.078	714	564	150
10	Laz Index	0.80252	9.7953	0.3511	158.911	714	573	141
11	Sonny Moore	0.79972	9.8386	0.7398	159.226	714	571	143
12	Stat Fox	0.75910	10.0126	1.6586	159.284	714	542	172
13	Pigskin Index	0.78992	9.9132	0.5382	161.535	714	564	150
14	Frank Alder	0.82073	9.9358	0.3487	162.454	714	586	128
15	Payne Power Ratings	0.82773	9.9365	0.0928	162.893	714	591	123
16	Sagarin	0.83473	9.9181	0.6455	163.121	714	596	118
17	Massey BCS *	0.83053	9.8853	0.8813	163.786	714	593	121
18	NutShell Sports	0.79552	9.9998	0.8335	164.251	714	568	146
19	NationalSportsRankings	0.77591	9.8039	0.4618	165.187	714	554	160
20	Billingsley+	0.80112	9.8054	0.7180	166.083	714	572	142
21	Beck Elo	0.81092	9.8873	0.1811	166.104	714	579	135
22	Stortrends	0.76814	10.1856	-0.0655	166.544	703	540	163
23	NutShell Combo	0.80812	10.1149	0.3401	168.472	714	577	137
24	PerformanZ Ratings	0.81092	10.2000	0.3289	168.966	714	579	135
25	Warren Claassen	0.82633	10.0728	0.3127	169.502	714	590	124
26	Massey Concensus Rank	0.82353	10.1665	0.8555	170.974	714	588	126
27	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.81793	10.0645	0.1443	171.262	714	584	130
28	Anderson/Hester *	0.82913	10.4552	0.7338	183.230	714	592	122
29	Ashby AccuRatings	0.77171	10.6569	1.0623	183.613	714	551	163
30	Martien Maas	0.83193	10.5164	0.6175	184.620	714	594	120
31	Colley Rankings *	0.82773	10.6053	0.6938	184.955	714	591	123
32	Covers.com	0.79832	10.6341	-0.2744	186.175	714	570	144
33	Sagarin Elo	0.84034	10.5056	0.5339	186.933	714	600	114
34	CPA Retro	0.82913	10.6822	-0.2083	193.188	714	592	122
35	Billingsly	0.81653	11.0919	0.2098	204.488	714	583	131
36	SuperList	0.83193	11.2859	1.1261	208.702	714	594	120
37	Wolfe *	0.83894	11.4750	0.9808	219.604	714	599	115
38	Nutshell Girl	0.78711	11.4523	-0.1535	220.037	714	562	152
39	Logistic Regression	0.80952	13.1234	-3.6743	285.559	714	578	136


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases