ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2011 Second Half Totals

Through 2012-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Computer Adjusted Line	0.72105	0.49587	12.2487	-1.0382	234.164	380	274	106	60	61
2	Line (updated)	0.72368		12.2421	-0.9763	234.447	380	275	105
3	Betgrinders.com	0.69030	0.55385	12.6370	-1.3646	235.528	268	185	83	144	116
4	System Median	0.71842	0.53117	12.3097	-1.3227	238.165	380	273	107	196	173
5	Line (opening)	0.71316	0.51964	12.3368	-1.1132	238.575	380	271	109	172	159
6	NationalSportsRankings	0.72105	0.49867	12.4550	-1.3577	239.479	380	274	106	187	188
7	System Average	0.71842	0.52267	12.3585	-1.3686	240.100	380	273	107	196	179
8	Ashby AccuRatings	0.72632	0.51143	12.5185	-1.4494	240.788	380	276	104	179	171
9	Bihl System	0.71353	0.51752	12.4006	-0.8664	241.085	377	269	108	192	179
10	Dokter Entropy	0.71842	0.45576	12.6212	-0.7667	243.336	380	273	107	170	203
11	Atomic Football	0.69737	0.48800	12.5323	-1.0546	244.373	380	265	115	183	192
12	Moore Power Ratings	0.71579	0.51200	12.5384	-1.5206	246.132	380	272	108	192	183
13	Dave Congrove	0.71053	0.50667	12.5505	-1.4174	247.731	380	270	110	190	185
14	Hank Trexler	0.70976	0.49858	12.4960	-2.8338	247.968	379	269	110	176	177
15	Stat Fox	0.71316	0.44350	12.8001	-0.2313	248.037	380	271	109	157	197
16	Marsee	0.71504	0.52717	12.6491	0.3588	248.211	379	271	108	194	174
17	CF By the Numbers	0.67368	0.50575	12.7237	-0.8553	248.824	380	256	124	176	172
18	Howell	0.71842	0.52632	12.5303	-1.1513	248.942	380	273	107	190	171
19	Pigskin Index	0.71579	0.51003	12.5790	-1.6208	249.395	380	272	108	178	171
20	Massey Ratings	0.70526	0.50000	12.6726	-1.0268	249.617	380	268	112	187	187
21	Dunkel Index	0.72895	0.54933	12.5766	-0.6602	249.759	380	277	103	206	169
22	ARGH Power Ratings	0.69921	0.53039	12.4769	-1.0508	250.428	379	265	114	192	170
23	CPA Rankings	0.71316	0.48800	12.8769	-0.7553	250.869	380	271	109	183	192
24	Sagarin Predictive	0.71842	0.48267	12.6748	-1.5903	250.979	380	273	107	181	194
25	Laz Index	0.72105	0.48267	12.7159	-1.7421	251.519	380	274	106	181	194
26	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.71768	0.49596	12.7018	-1.2613	252.290	379	272	107	184	187
27	Edward Kambour	0.71842	0.48000	12.9061	-1.1087	254.119	380	273	107	180	195
28	Pointshare Ratings	0.70976	0.51892	12.7821	-0.5161	255.091	379	269	110	192	178
29	Sagarin	0.70789	0.53600	12.6382	-1.6012	255.308	380	269	111	201	174
30	Bias Free Rankings	0.70712	0.49330	12.9153	-1.5560	256.136	379	268	111	184	189
31	Brent Craig	0.70263	0.48267	12.6972	-0.7927	256.881	380	267	113	181	194
32	Beck Elo	0.70263	0.48800	12.7144	-1.2588	257.107	380	267	113	183	192
33	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.71579	0.52139	12.7382	-1.5583	257.109	380	272	108	195	179
34	Born Power Index	0.70789	0.50802	12.8746	-1.4309	258.254	380	269	111	190	184
35	Warren Claassen	0.71842	0.50400	12.8058	-1.7948	258.561	380	273	107	189	186
36	Payne Power Ratings	0.69737	0.46400	12.9560	-0.7932	258.646	380	265	115	174	201
37	Linear Regression	0.69737	0.49067	12.9274	-0.9330	258.805	380	265	115	184	191
38	Catherwood Ratings	0.71842	0.46328	12.9342	-0.3658	258.861	380	273	107	164	190
39	Billingsley+	0.69211	0.47467	12.9836	-1.4483	259.138	380	263	117	178	197
40	Lee Burdorf	0.69474	0.51206	12.8852	-1.3820	259.880	380	264	116	191	182
41	Covers.com	0.72105	0.52446	12.8658	-1.8110	260.285	380	274	106	193	175
42	NutShell Combo	0.72368	0.48800	12.9457	-1.5782	261.480	380	275	105	183	192
43	Stephen Kerns	0.71579	0.46631	13.0276	-1.4044	262.192	380	272	108	173	198
44	Massey Consensus	0.70789	0.52267	12.8505	-1.2318	263.411	380	269	111	196	179
45	Regression-Based Analys	0.71316	0.47851	13.1158	-0.7421	264.595	380	271	109	167	182
46	Colley Rankings *	0.70526	0.52533	12.9895	-1.3711	268.107	380	268	112	197	178
47	Compughter Ratings	0.72034	0.45115	13.3292	-1.7696	268.575	354	255	99	157	191
48	Bassett Model	0.69474	0.45867	13.4253	-0.2361	268.709	380	264	116	172	203
49	Anderson/Hester *	0.70526	0.52267	12.9407	-1.3138	268.741	380	268	112	196	179
50	Billingsley	0.68947	0.50400	13.0826	-1.3491	269.212	380	262	118	189	186
51	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70000	0.49465	13.2069	-1.1904	272.648	380	266	114	185	189
52	Keeper	0.69737	0.50806	13.1155	-0.3640	272.964	380	265	115	189	183
53	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.73947	0.52646	13.0500	-3.2868	274.003	380	281	99	189	170
54	Massey *	0.70000	0.53067	13.0379	-1.0785	275.920	380	266	114	199	176
55	DP Dwiggins	0.72464	0.50294	13.2079	-4.7775	276.042	345	250	95	171	169
56	Wolfe *	0.70000	0.51200	13.2549	-0.8268	281.214	380	266	114	192	183
57	football.loudsound.org	0.70435	0.50154	13.4145	-5.0261	284.157	345	243	102	163	162
58	Sagarin Elo	0.70263	0.51743	13.2962	-1.5678	284.955	380	267	113	193	180
59	Laffaye XWP	0.70263	0.49057	13.2048	-2.9126	285.210	380	267	113	182	189
60	NutShell Sports	0.71579	0.52547	13.4466	-1.6097	288.099	380	272	108	196	177
61	Nutshell Girl	0.68421	0.52267	13.7637	-1.8425	298.378	380	260	120	196	179
62	CPA Retro	0.67632	0.50667	13.6992	-0.9582	299.289	380	257	123	190	185
63	Laffaye RWP	0.72632	0.51467	13.7204	-4.4626	307.249	380	276	104	193	182
64	Sportrends	0.67914	0.48169	14.2513	-1.1390	311.714	374	254	120	171	184
65	Super List	0.71579	0.51467	13.9920	-1.1930	312.525	380	272	108	193	182
66	Logistic Regression	0.69737	0.52533	14.8958	-4.5280	371.237	380	265	115	197	178
67	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.67368	0.52000	15.4754	-0.2857	388.178	380	256	124	195	180
68	Martien Maas	0.70526	0.53333	16.5842	-0.6973	431.091	380	268	112	200	175
69	TW Rankings	0.00000	0.00000	25.0000	-25.0000	625.000	1	0	1	0	1


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases