ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Season Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Linear Regression	0.72193	0.55978	13.1373	0.2985	275.692	374	270	104	206	162
2	Catherwood Ratings	0.74198	0.53353	12.8257	0.6416	262.301	717	532	185	358	313
3	Martien Maas	0.67112	0.52316	17.0104	0.5056	431.875	374	251	123	192	175
4	BG Sports	0.71658	0.52247	13.3303	1.6273	280.379	374	268	106	186	170
5	Fort Heresy Model	0.74747	0.52073	13.3428	0.0253	289.087	396	296	100	201	185
6	Brent Craig	0.73222	0.51622	13.4310	-0.2510	282.981	717	525	192	350	328
7	Stat Fox	0.73538	0.50983	12.8315	1.0100	261.767	718	528	190	337	324
8	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.67647	0.50949	15.7607	-0.0259	389.982	374	253	121	188	181
9	TW Rankings	0.71342	0.50866	14.0236	-1.5578	311.868	663	473	190	323	312
10	CPA Rankings	0.73677	0.50855	13.0066	0.0177	265.661	718	529	189	357	345
11	Hank Trexler	0.74266	0.50737	15.2392	-0.0252	391.754	715	531	184	344	334
12	Keeper	0.72563	0.50640	13.6516	1.2470	289.373	718	521	197	356	347
13	Born Power Index	0.72702	0.50640	13.0030	-0.1690	264.115	718	522	196	356	347
14	Bihl System	0.71850	0.50543	13.3258	0.8312	276.692	373	268	105	186	182
15	Line (opening)	0.74022	0.50512	12.5615	0.1187	252.069	716	530	186	296	290
16	Stephen Kerns	0.73677	0.50499	13.0266	-0.1901	262.428	718	529	189	354	347
17	CF By the Numbers	0.72612	0.50448	13.1180	0.6489	269.098	712	517	195	338	332
18	PerformanZ Ratings	0.72145	0.50427	13.6104	0.0840	291.185	718	518	200	354	348
19	Brent Craig 2	0.71591	0.50199	13.9677	0.5210	309.305	528	378	150	252	250
20	NationalSportsRankings	0.74234	0.50143	12.8706	-0.1577	260.193	718	533	185	351	349
21	Moore Power Ratings	0.72702	0.50000	12.9458	-0.2447	266.675	718	522	196	351	351
22	NutShell Sports	0.72563	0.49929	13.3127	-0.2543	277.145	718	521	197	351	352
23	Logistic Regression	0.66310	0.49864	16.8715	-2.7261	432.490	374	248	126	184	185
24	Warren Claassen	0.70613	0.49858	13.6229	-0.4837	290.384	718	507	211	350	352
25	Austin Sports	0.70865	0.49808	13.4856	0.6090	282.490	532	377	155	260	262
26	Dave Congrove	0.72106	0.49573	13.1921	-0.3063	275.925	717	517	200	348	354
27	Super List	0.72006	0.49573	14.0816	0.5471	304.666	718	517	201	348	354
28	Billingsley	0.71866	0.49502	13.6055	-0.1945	289.522	718	516	202	348	355
29	Atomic Football	0.73259	0.49502	12.7860	0.2589	259.991	718	526	192	348	355
30	Sagarin Predictive	0.74373	0.49502	13.0769	0.0010	268.635	718	534	184	348	355
31	Dunkel Index	0.75487	0.49430	12.8483	0.2184	264.611	718	542	176	347	355
32	Tom Benson	0.73810	0.49367	13.5186	-7.3957	283.796	84	62	22	39	40
33	CPA Retro	0.69916	0.49360	14.1785	0.0339	313.086	718	502	216	347	356
34	Sportrends	0.72663	0.49247	13.3421	-0.4214	287.264	706	513	193	327	337
35	Edward Kambour	0.74095	0.49218	13.2690	0.0757	277.326	718	532	186	346	357
36	Massey Ratings	0.75070	0.49218	12.9918	-0.1753	268.537	718	539	179	346	357
37	Laffaye XWP	0.71688	0.49065	13.8715	-0.9781	305.159	717	514	203	341	354
38	Pigskin Index	0.72981	0.49025	12.8398	-0.2962	258.710	718	524	194	327	340
39	Regression-Based Analys	0.72841	0.48961	13.4694	1.2187	285.937	718	523	195	330	344
40	System Median	0.74373	0.48711	12.7773	-0.0695	255.672	718	534	184	340	358
41	Howell	0.73120	0.48680	13.3057	-0.4463	278.049	718	525	193	332	350
42	Bassett Model	0.72772	0.48576	13.4248	1.2084	280.244	606	441	165	290	307
43	Computer Adjusted Line	0.75838	0.48571	12.4106	0.2877	244.423	716	543	173	119	126
44	Anderson/Hester *	0.67647	0.48238	14.0665	0.2924	308.021	374	253	121	178	191
45	Massey *	0.67112	0.48238	14.4457	0.3929	317.676	374	251	123	178	191
46	Payne Power Ratings	0.72106	0.48217	13.3321	-0.3759	280.833	717	517	200	338	363
47	Covers.com	0.72663	0.48168	13.7490	-0.9326	294.563	567	412	155	263	283
48	Laz Index	0.73955	0.48006	13.0877	-0.5947	265.044	718	531	187	337	365
49	Wolfe *	0.67380	0.47826	14.5100	0.5497	320.024	374	252	122	176	192
50	Ashby AccuRatings	0.73259	0.47781	13.0794	-0.2296	269.735	718	526	192	323	353
51	System Average	0.74513	0.47578	12.7673	-0.0624	255.497	718	535	183	334	368
52	DP Dwiggins	0.72709	0.47551	13.4067	-3.2487	273.865	502	365	137	233	257
53	Massey Consensus	0.73398	0.47511	13.1940	0.2370	270.907	718	527	191	334	369
54	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72892	0.47039	13.2097	0.4590	269.397	664	484	180	286	322
55	Thompson SPRS	0.69128	0.46897	14.1517	0.0852	318.567	447	309	138	204	231
56	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.74234	0.46824	13.7897	-1.5919	301.483	718	533	185	317	360
57	Sagarin Elo	0.69499	0.46799	14.0883	0.1753	305.243	718	499	219	329	374
58	Thompson SPRS2	0.71365	0.46759	13.4428	0.4083	286.027	447	319	128	202	230
59	Lee Burdorf	0.72841	0.46571	13.2511	-0.1600	277.597	718	523	195	326	374
60	Sagarin	0.72841	0.46515	13.2874	0.0761	276.496	718	523	195	327	376
61	NutShell Combo	0.72563	0.46296	13.3721	-0.3890	276.511	718	521	197	325	377
62	Dokter Entropy	0.76045	0.46000	12.8253	0.4164	257.753	718	546	172	322	378
63	Marsee	0.71448	0.45950	13.8412	1.5125	296.373	718	513	205	312	367
64	Billingsley+	0.73120	0.45299	13.2397	0.0029	274.557	718	525	193	318	384
65	Nutshell Girl	0.68802	0.45092	14.4449	-0.7402	327.943	718	494	224	317	386
66	Beck Elo	0.72423	0.44097	13.5768	-0.1487	284.647	718	520	198	310	393
67	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.72981	0.43447	13.5202	-0.4301	282.492	718	524	194	305	397
68	Line (updated)	0.75348		12.4220	0.4150	245.100	718	541	177


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases