ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2009 Season Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Logistic Regression	0.71774	0.53591	15.0370	-2.4933	369.468	372	267	105	194	168
2	Covers.com	0.73249	0.53488	12.0912	0.0708	236.518	714	523	191	368	320
3	Billingsley	0.73249	0.52874	12.5430	-0.0059	253.321	714	523	191	368	328
4	Linear Regression	0.73387	0.52762	11.8922	0.9067	228.930	372	273	99	191	171
5	Stephen Kerns	0.72549	0.52586	12.5291	0.7475	256.894	714	518	196	366	330
6	Nutshell Girl	0.73669	0.52586	12.2668	-0.1733	244.838	714	526	188	366	330
7	NutShell Combo	0.73669	0.52450	11.7003	0.1868	221.595	714	526	188	364	330
8	Edward Kambour	0.74650	0.52450	11.6492	0.7182	219.689	714	533	181	364	330
9	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.72581	0.52210	13.7862	0.7620	311.808	372	270	102	189	173
10	Howell	0.73352	0.51740	12.0022	0.0065	232.849	713	523	190	342	319
11	Moore Power Ratings	0.74930	0.51729	11.7112	0.5256	225.807	714	535	179	359	335
12	Computer Adjusted Line	0.73810	0.51661	11.2612	1.0917	206.163	714	527	187	140	131
13	Dokter Entropy	0.75070	0.51655	11.4444	0.7752	212.719	714	536	178	359	336
14	DP Dwiggins	0.71196	0.51593	12.4536	-3.3892	250.857	677	482	195	340	319
15	NutShell Sports	0.72829	0.51437	12.2180	0.5398	241.651	714	520	194	358	338
16	Massey *	0.77688	0.51105	11.8020	1.2431	223.550	372	289	83	185	177
17	ARGH Power Ratings	0.74230	0.51045	12.2017	0.6674	239.155	714	530	184	342	328
18	Dave Congrove	0.72689	0.51006	12.0814	-0.1209	235.237	714	519	195	355	341
19	Billingsley+	0.74930	0.50935	11.7586	0.4208	228.385	714	535	179	354	341
20	Beck Elo	0.72689	0.50794	12.0890	0.2810	239.203	714	519	195	352	341
21	Sagarin Elo	0.70728	0.50718	12.7487	0.2918	263.889	714	505	209	353	343
22	Massey Consensus	0.72549	0.50575	12.0517	0.6875	237.293	714	518	196	352	344
23	CPA Rankings	0.73204	0.50539	12.2632	0.1163	244.168	668	489	179	328	321
24	Super List	0.72549	0.50504	13.5815	0.9087	292.143	714	518	196	351	344
25	CPA Retro	0.72455	0.50462	13.3387	-0.0054	286.861	668	484	184	328	322
26	Sagarin Predictive	0.73810	0.50431	11.7529	0.6497	224.315	714	527	187	351	345
27	Warren Claassen	0.70868	0.50431	12.9084	-0.4963	270.781	714	506	208	351	345
28	Stat Fox	0.73950	0.50382	11.6625	1.6683	221.267	714	528	186	330	325
29	Lee Burdorf	0.73249	0.50363	12.0581	0.4940	238.303	714	523	191	347	342
30	Colley Rankings *	0.69892	0.50276	12.9231	0.8179	270.791	372	260	112	182	180
31	TW Rankings	0.70152	0.50236	13.0547	-0.1404	283.666	660	463	197	319	316
32	Laz Index	0.74930	0.50144	11.6667	0.1511	221.865	714	535	179	348	346
33	System Average	0.75210	0.50144	11.5723	0.4370	217.049	714	537	177	349	347
34	Sagarin	0.72689	0.50000	11.9533	0.4593	234.340	714	519	195	348	348
35	Catherwood Ratings	0.72269	0.50000	11.9272	1.2661	236.606	714	516	198	326	326
36	Frank Alder	0.72549	0.49856	12.6280	-0.4457	260.100	714	518	196	347	349
37	Line (opening)	0.73249	0.49742	11.4174	0.8249	212.248	714	523	191	289	292
38	Atomic Football	0.75210	0.49713	11.5120	0.8409	216.111	714	537	177	346	350
39	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.73109	0.49713	12.0536	0.1328	238.557	714	522	192	346	350
40	Dunkel Index	0.73913	0.49712	11.8454	1.1091	227.489	713	527	186	345	349
41	Keeper	0.73669	0.49640	12.0717	1.5916	234.506	714	526	188	345	350
42	Pigskin Index	0.75630	0.49475	11.5405	0.6110	216.060	714	540	174	330	337
43	Wolfe *	0.70699	0.49448	13.4698	1.5001	288.803	372	263	109	179	183
44	Sportrends	0.70555	0.49319	12.7319	-0.1486	259.673	703	496	207	326	335
45	Anderson/Hester *	0.73118	0.49307	12.5199	0.7481	249.200	372	272	100	178	183
46	Payne Power Ratings	0.72917	0.49286	12.4982	-0.1746	255.153	576	420	156	276	284
47	Hank Trexler	0.75035	0.49238	11.8850	-0.0084	231.237	713	535	178	323	333
48	Martien Maas	0.68821	0.49216	13.0766	0.4696	276.537	526	362	164	251	259
49	System Median	0.74790	0.49197	11.5495	0.4387	216.008	714	534	180	337	348
50	Ashby AccuRatings	0.73669	0.49163	11.7563	0.1601	224.631	714	526	188	323	334
51	Born Power Index	0.73669	0.48991	12.0834	0.4529	240.313	714	526	188	340	354
52	Harmon Forcast	0.72321	0.48967	12.2321	-1.4048	247.691	672	486	186	308	321
53	Bassett Model	0.72996	0.48918	12.4607	1.8703	248.630	711	519	192	339	354
54	Bihl System	0.72706	0.48786	11.8486	0.8618	227.504	425	309	116	201	211
55	Tom Benson	0.67556	0.48703	14.9517	3.2272	341.119	712	481	231	338	356
56	Imes Comprank	0.72345	0.48473	12.4674	-0.0253	250.253	499	361	138	238	253
57	NationalSportsRankings	0.74848	0.48460	11.7592	0.3506	225.182	656	491	165	299	318
58	PerformanZ Ratings	0.72409	0.48276	12.6587	-0.0329	264.096	714	517	197	336	360
59	Marsee	0.73773	0.47626	12.6858	1.9677	262.714	713	526	187	321	353
60	CF By the Numbers	0.69968	0.43902	11.9457	-0.5272	228.929	313	219	94	126	161
61	Line (updated)	0.73389		11.2654	1.1814	206.152	714	524	190


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases