Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.754480.5289611.99101.7583233.66339129596137122
2Thompson ATS0.753850.4895312.23591.2774240.66339029496187195
3Thompson CAL0.753850.4764412.25411.6936239.80339029496182200
4Computer Adjusted Line0.751920.5084712.06141.7059235.39539129497150145
5Pigskin Index0.749360.4739712.73141.2381260.37239129398173192
6Pi-Rate Ratings0.749360.5326412.63451.9313257.84839129398204179
7Line (Midweek)0.7493612.09721.7008238.15439129398
8Thompson Average0.743590.4631612.46031.6197248.729390290100176204
9Dokter Entropy0.741690.4738212.52701.6995249.877391290101181201
10Nutshell Girl0.739410.5217415.2463-3.2947396.43030722780156143
11Billingsley+0.739130.4856413.21940.7297284.138391289102186197
12Dunkel Index0.739130.5143613.21741.6466301.399391289102197186
13Sagarin Ratings0.739130.4412513.08281.9108271.687391289102169214
14Sagarin Points0.739130.4621412.93481.9703271.920391289102177206
15System Median0.739130.4707412.68041.4115255.483391289102177199
16PI-Rate Bias0.739130.5476212.56271.7724252.935391289102207171
17Line (opening)0.736570.5000012.25061.4859239.533391288103161161
18DP Dwiggins0.736530.4454813.84131.5659301.37333424688143178
19Billingsley0.734020.4960813.75730.3109308.203391287104190193
20Pi-Ratings Mean0.734020.5552612.40511.3412246.119391287104211169
21Atomic Football0.734020.4734012.68221.8131253.881391287104178198
22CPA Rankings0.731460.4934713.29651.2663272.067391286105189194
23DirectorOfInformation0.731460.4986913.00931.0459271.544391286105191192
24Massey Consensus0.731460.4725813.31421.7211280.151391286105181202
25System Average0.728900.4633512.72701.3749257.938391285106177205
26Randal Horobik0.728900.4613313.77491.6829290.688391285106167195
27Catherwood Ratings0.728210.4565213.87181.8308309.073390284106168200
28NutShell Sports0.727510.4986614.03400.1987325.282389283106186187
29Sagarin Golden Mean0.726340.4673613.55851.7476287.690391284107179204
30Lee Burdorf0.724940.4907713.65881.1910291.318389282107186193
31Brent Craig 20.724250.4879715.6717-1.2538401.55430121883142149
32Moore Power Ratings0.724230.4368413.84371.7594304.652388281107166214
33Ashby AccuRatings0.723790.4630112.80051.1843258.077391283108169196
34Edward Kambour0.723680.4677413.45221.6146289.180380275105174198
35Cleanup Hitter0.721850.5358415.6022-2.2801415.15430221884157136
36Keeper0.721230.4699713.99282.6748306.185391282109180203
37Massey Ratings0.721230.4562813.19180.8338275.955391282109167199
38Stat Fox0.721230.4540513.46802.1845293.938391282109168202
39Brent Craig0.720510.4435713.35911.9641278.346390281109169212
40NutShell Combo0.720380.4607812.88101.1918273.3632111525994110
41ComPughter Ratings0.718670.4960813.08881.2426272.536391281110190193
42Regression Based Analys0.718670.4254714.32482.5038321.460391281110157212
43Dave Congrove0.716110.4595314.04890.6338319.306391280111176207
44ThePowerRank.com0.713140.4918012.66630.7182262.778373266107180186
45Payne Power Ratings0.711000.4752013.55641.4118290.528391278113182201
46Sagarin Points Elo0.711000.4804213.80991.8075301.855391278113184199
47Daniel Curry Index0.708440.4607314.92051.3814354.236391277114176206
48MDS Model0.707690.5078514.02940.3984317.250390276114194188
49ARGH Power Ratings0.705880.4483713.73471.4572292.382391276115165203
50Beck Elo0.703590.4285713.91421.4311298.01533423599141188
51Born Power Index0.703320.4517014.32801.5978319.460391275116173210
52Laz Index0.703320.5013113.23830.5269277.943391275116192191
53Tempo Free Gridiron0.703320.5119413.6650-0.7136307.306391275116193184
54CPA Retro0.700770.4830314.21931.3986314.876391274117185198
55Super List0.700770.5235614.36041.5032329.466391274117200182
56Stephen Kerns0.697550.4450714.3986-0.1631320.405367256111158197
57Sportrends0.697060.4937914.7074-0.9779362.238340237103159163
58Nutshell Eye0.696680.4623113.17771.5972277.8902111476492107
59Laffaye XWP0.695650.4581217.01897.2292445.446391272119175207
60FEI Projections0.692310.5013613.43590.8103284.793390270120185184
61PerformanZ Ratings0.690540.4621414.44900.9204327.867391270121177206
62Marsee0.687980.4435514.50383.1790328.821391269122165207
63Howell0.684620.4918013.97311.0912309.485390267123180186
64Donchess Inference0.683800.4698213.87350.3763301.671389266123179202
65Covers.com0.680310.5197913.8580-0.2423314.990391266125197182
66Laffaye RWP0.675190.5274214.3409-1.5065330.599391264127202181
67PointShare0.611370.4876814.21181.4185313.4302111298299104
68Bihl System0.607840.4000014.31512.4616303.54310262404060

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases