ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

20 Season Totals

System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
Stat Fox	0.74860	0.52345	12.5055	0.6604	252.748	712	533	179	346	315
Line (updated)	0.74017		12.1945	-0.1131	244.573	712	527	185
Ashby AccuRatings	0.74017	0.50525	12.3946	0.3556	248.113	712	527	185	337	330
Harmon Forcast	0.74017	0.51923	12.4508	0.1250	248.833	712	527	185	351	325
Pigskin Index	0.73876	0.52782	12.5477	-0.3397	255.480	712	526	186	351	314
Edward Kambour	0.73876	0.52286	12.5649	0.4035	258.935	712	526	186	366	334
Computer Adjusted Line	0.73840	0.48980	12.2110	-0.1322	244.678	711	525	186	120	125
Dokter Entropy	0.73455	0.48787	13.1842	1.2923	279.344	712	523	189	342	359
Thompson pred	0.73455	0.51506	12.3094	-0.2660	246.890	712	523	189	359	338
System Average	0.73315	0.50286	12.5044	-0.4384	251.114	712	522	190	352	348
Hank Trexler	0.73315	0.48733	12.5267	0.1587	254.136	712	522	190	327	344
Line (opening)	0.73174	0.50998	12.3371	-0.3174	254.296	712	521	191	281	270
Thompson SPRS	0.72893	0.51571	12.3348	-0.0259	248.319	712	519	193	361	339
Atomic Football	0.72893	0.50358	12.7171	-0.5547	256.456	712	519	193	352	347
Ed Bemiss	0.72855	0.50578	12.9370	-1.1206	271.848	711	518	193	350	342
Dave Congrove	0.72753	0.51571	12.7879	-0.9156	260.736	712	518	194	361	339
Thompson stats	0.72612	0.50857	12.7880	-0.5980	263.100	712	517	195	356	344
Tom Benson	0.72574	0.49286	13.1942	0.2078	282.875	711	516	195	345	355
Gupta Power Ratings	0.72562	0.52123	13.6168	0.1679	304.141	441	320	121	221	203
Keeper	0.72472	0.50642	12.9280	0.5575	270.918	712	516	196	355	346
System Median	0.72331	0.50504	12.4885	-0.3887	251.599	712	515	197	351	344
Bihl System	0.72195	0.48883	12.6441	-0.2441	261.381	410	296	114	197	206
Laz Index	0.72191	0.49358	12.7716	-0.9722	264.546	712	514	198	346	355
CPA Rankings	0.72191	0.47076	13.2357	-0.2511	278.423	712	514	198	330	371
PerformanZ Ratings	0.72051	0.50214	13.4099	-0.9380	291.193	712	513	199	352	349
Stephen Kerns	0.72051	0.47571	13.7066	0.9094	298.377	712	513	199	333	367
Sagarin Predictive	0.71910	0.50571	13.0006	-0.6604	273.375	712	512	200	354	346
Moore Power Ratings	0.71910	0.49499	12.7941	-0.7912	262.429	712	512	200	346	353
Imes Comprank	0.71791	0.49284	13.0031	-0.3282	273.932	709	509	200	344	354
ARGH Power Ratings	0.71629	0.49480	12.9354	0.0386	269.148	712	510	202	333	340
Howell	0.71629	0.49321	13.0301	-0.2800	270.901	712	510	202	327	336
Lee Burdorf	0.71629	0.48777	13.1949	-0.7062	280.601	712	510	202	339	356
Linear Regression	0.71629	0.45429	12.9378	-0.1685	272.502	356	255	101	159	191
Sagarin	0.71489	0.48286	12.9426	-0.6904	268.494	712	509	203	338	362
Born Power Index	0.71489	0.48787	13.1968	-0.4187	277.137	712	509	203	342	359
Super List	0.71489	0.48787	14.4596	0.3736	334.375	712	509	203	342	359
Beck Elo	0.71348	0.48143	13.4789	-0.8706	282.709	712	508	204	337	363
NutShell Sports	0.71067	0.53714	13.1498	-0.3965	273.241	712	506	206	376	324
TSR Slots	0.70787	0.51355	19.7393	-1.0590	786.405	712	504	208	360	341
NutShell Retro	0.70787	0.52354	13.5335	0.0573	287.570	712	504	208	367	334
Warren Claassen	0.70646	0.48502	13.8103	-1.1496	299.995	712	503	209	340	361
Anderson/Hester *	0.70627	0.46980	13.2646	-0.5668	274.919	303	214	89	140	158
Brent Craig	0.70506	0.50371	13.1201	-1.4347	280.696	712	502	210	339	334
Massey Consensus	0.70506	0.50071	13.1910	-0.7335	275.559	712	502	210	351	350
Dunkel Index	0.70475	0.48343	13.5449	0.2301	292.122	674	475	199	321	343
Marsee	0.70225	0.48301	13.8539	1.1376	304.335	712	500	212	327	350
Sagarin Elo	0.70084	0.48429	13.9876	-0.5891	308.018	712	499	213	339	361
CPA Retro	0.69944	0.49286	13.6243	-0.1013	292.535	712	498	214	345	355
Bassett Model	0.69590	0.49424	13.1823	-0.0504	272.107	707	492	215	343	351
Massey BCS *	0.69444	0.44654	13.3517	-0.4423	277.434	324	225	99	142	176
Billingsly	0.69242	0.48286	13.4777	-0.6652	280.262	712	493	219	338	362
Colley Rankings *	0.69014	0.46705	13.4215	-0.3746	282.412	355	245	110	163	186
Covers.com	0.68872	0.53303	13.4444	-1.5875	295.206	665	458	207	347	304
Wolfe *	0.68647	0.46644	13.3491	-0.0573	279.835	303	208	95	139	159
The Sports Report	0.68118	0.49358	14.2865	-1.1090	329.505	712	485	227	346	355
Martien Maas	0.67698	0.46850	13.7909	0.3771	297.789	517	350	167	238	270
Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65169	0.48857	15.2696	0.5832	368.957	356	232	124	171	179
Logistic Regression	0.64888	0.49143	13.9408	-0.1244	317.623	356	231	125	172	178
TSR Pred	0.64607	0.48571	20.0556	-1.1878	822.795	712	460	252	340	360
Sports Report Elo	0.64607	0.47571	14.9124	-0.2994	341.967	712	460	252	333	367
Sportrends	0.58427	0.47564	17.4001	-8.8754	478.658	712	416	296	332	366


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases