Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2014-11-23
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.753490.5282212.45581.3101246.704645486159234209
2Thompson CAL0.753110.4952112.60921.1461250.204644485159310316
3Thompson ATS0.753110.4936112.63800.9011251.921644485159309317
4Computer Adjusted Line0.751940.5143412.49691.2380247.642645485160251237
5DP Dwiggins0.749350.4517913.67621.4726293.43038328796164199
6Dokter Entropy0.747290.4920112.81091.2782256.525645482163308318
7Thompson Average0.746890.4887512.77011.0125256.743644481163304318
8Line (Midweek)0.7464812.48591.2074249.317639477162
9Billingsley+0.745740.5151513.25400.3016280.999645481164323304
10Pigskin Index0.744190.5126513.02480.5786267.831645480165304289
11CPA Rankings0.744190.4896313.46810.3718278.680645480165307320
12Sagarin Ratings0.742640.4784713.21191.2480272.777645479166300327
13DirectorOfInformation0.742640.4912313.10560.5491273.352645479166308319
14Sagarin Points0.741090.4768713.13131.3137273.630645478167299328
15Dunkel Index0.740680.5143813.51011.3246300.587644477167322304
16System Median0.739530.5000012.92440.7983262.173645477168308308
17Pi-Rate Ratings0.739530.5320513.02181.0542269.124645477168332292
18Line (opening)0.737980.5284112.55120.9574249.645645476169279249
19Atomic Football0.736430.4991712.93451.1797263.968645475170301302
20Sagarin Golden Mean0.736430.4928213.52771.1500283.034645475170309318
21Catherwood Ratings0.735610.4958513.81651.4837299.434643473170299304
22Stat Fox0.734880.4900013.49611.8065287.605645474171294306
23Randal Horobik0.734350.4780213.73601.1337291.875591434157261285
24PI-Rate Bias0.733330.5337613.02190.9447266.669645473172332290
25Massey Consensus0.733330.5023913.36181.0882279.236645473172315312
26System Average0.731780.4896012.95790.7923263.546645472173306319
27Dave Congrove0.731780.4768713.96200.3252312.259645472173299328
28Pi-Ratings Mean0.731780.5362312.88650.6161260.201645472173333288
29Payne Power Ratings0.731370.5056013.55240.3251287.097644471173316309
30Brent Craig 20.730880.4781313.29414.5184281.04835325895164179
31Ashby AccuRatings0.730230.4932412.89310.6700261.281645471174292300
32Billingsley0.730230.5151513.7157-0.0564303.502645471174323304
33Lee Burdorf0.729390.4919613.74340.8019293.603643469174306316
34Moore Power Ratings0.727410.4783313.84231.1616301.907642467175298325
35Born Power Index0.725580.4848514.15020.9202308.271645468177304323
36ARGH Power Ratings0.725580.4900313.66200.9891287.417645468177295307
37Sagarin Points Elo0.724030.4951913.70841.1291293.646645467178309315
38Daniel Curry Index0.724030.4920114.57780.8293332.290645467178308318
39Edward Kambour0.723970.4967513.49991.0653286.536634459175306310
40Regression Based Analys0.723950.4481414.21572.3876319.013547396151229282
41Nutshell Girl0.723230.4736813.72710.9021300.683607439168279310
42Tempo Free Gridiron0.722120.5162513.8099-1.1042312.996547395152270253
43Cleanup Hitter0.721370.4955914.42122.5467348.721585422163281286
44ComPughter Ratings0.720930.4912313.41370.5020280.125645465180308319
45Brent Craig0.720500.4704013.63621.3231286.358644464180294331
46NutShell Sports0.720060.5008214.1585-0.0333323.625643463180307306
47Laz Index0.719380.4976113.36080.2174279.321645464181312315
48Keeper0.719380.4784713.88332.0395294.867645464181300327
49ThePowerRank.com0.717700.4942513.17500.3603275.177627450177301308
50Stephen Kerns0.713370.4721814.0015-0.1624300.260621443178280313
51MDS Model0.712730.4968114.00070.2210312.442644459185311315
52NutShell Combo0.711830.5022413.49340.3639292.451465331134224222
53Covers.com0.708530.5257213.8914-0.2927310.594645457188327295
54Massey Ratings0.707750.4859013.5149-0.1889286.840503356147224237
55Beck Elo0.705780.4729513.90390.7925296.246588415173271302
56Super List0.705430.5335514.61880.8208337.314645455190334292
57Howell0.704970.5050213.86030.5638300.368644454190302296
58Linear Regression0.704720.4877014.0429-1.2217299.67525417975119125
59Marsee0.703880.4713614.19692.6899313.181645454191288323
60PerformanZ Ratings0.702330.4816614.16620.6771309.657645453192302325
61Laffaye RWP0.700780.5374814.1005-1.7264316.987645452193337290
62Donchess Inference0.699840.5016013.63230.0467290.252643450193313311
63Laffaye XWP0.699220.4775616.55976.6236422.994645451194298326
64Nutshell Eye0.694620.4909113.73760.5937298.571465323142216224
65Bihl System0.693820.4680213.82761.0705289.642356247109161183
66Logistic Regression0.692910.5573816.4368-3.5694413.46725417678136108
67FEI Projections0.690990.5090913.78570.0373302.410644445199308297
68CPA Retro0.688370.4848514.46270.1474319.242645444201304323
69Loudsound.org0.688310.5374113.7954-3.6845310.71130821296158136
70Sportrends0.686830.5018914.5570-0.1637341.003562386176266264
71Least Squares w/ HFA0.685040.5409815.9146-1.1947402.27125417480132112
72PointShare0.662370.5022414.0942-0.2619307.907465308157224222

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases