Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1DP Dwiggins0.749350.4517913.67621.4726293.43038328796164199
2Thompson CAL0.739470.5081112.57491.1438251.332760562198376364
3Line (updated)0.736840.5233512.47701.3191249.765760560200269245
4Thompson ATS0.736840.5067612.62680.9076253.703760560200375365
5Computer Adjusted Line0.735530.5132312.50661.2500250.262760559201291276
6Randal Horobik0.734350.4780213.73601.1337291.875591434157261285
7CPA Rankings0.734210.5027013.22780.4700273.204760558202372368
8Sagarin Ratings0.734210.4966213.07981.2648270.887760558202367372
9Pigskin Index0.732890.5100312.96580.5319268.003760557203356342
10Dave Congrove0.732890.4891913.75050.3377306.783760557203362378
11Line (Midweek)0.7326212.49731.2580252.051748548200
12Thompson Average0.731580.5027212.70091.0303256.739760556204370366
13Billingsley+0.731580.5216213.17330.3666279.161760556204386354
14Brent Craig 20.730880.4781313.29414.5184281.04835325895164179
15System Median0.730260.5151512.82450.8342261.095760555205374352
16Dokter Entropy0.730260.4966212.77481.2805257.344760555205367372
17Stat Fox0.728950.4943513.37111.8056285.530760554206350358
18Sagarin Points0.728950.4857913.01631.3367271.817760554206359380
19Ashby AccuRatings0.728950.5072012.77900.7397260.553760554206352342
20Payne Power Ratings0.728590.5162613.35950.3545282.559759553206381357
21Dunkel Index0.726550.5047513.58281.4209303.465757550207372365
22Massey Consensus0.726320.5189213.21871.0745277.300760552208384356
23Sagarin Golden Mean0.726320.5027013.39051.2257281.650760552208372368
24DirectorOfInformation0.726320.4973013.02800.5673271.395760552208368372
25Sagarin Points Elo0.725000.5061113.51981.0935289.009760551209373364
26Regression Based Analys0.724460.4784113.89162.3003309.165646468178288314
27Pi-Rate Ratings0.722370.5359612.95601.0500269.513760549211395342
28System Average0.722370.5081312.85530.8323262.563760549211375363
29Atomic Football0.722370.5099712.89971.1315265.172760549211358344
30Edward Kambour0.722300.5006913.32391.1352282.256749541208365364
31ARGH Power Ratings0.721050.5028213.49511.0266285.106760548212357353
32Line (opening)0.720320.5225812.55470.9453251.703758546212324296
33Catherwood Ratings0.720320.5014013.67811.5831296.065758546212357355
34Billingsley0.718420.5189213.58350.0035299.722760546214384356
35PI-Rate Bias0.718420.5313412.93250.9499266.871760546214390344
36Moore Power Ratings0.717310.4904913.68381.1843297.639757543214361375
37Pi-Ratings Mean0.717110.5382512.81050.6926260.100760545215394338
38Daniel Curry Index0.714100.4993214.31450.8363323.839759542217368369
39Tempo Free Gridiron0.713620.5258913.6579-1.2368309.315646461185325293
40Lee Burdorf0.712400.4938813.65390.8791292.789758540218363372
41Nutshell Girl0.711910.4800613.78950.8216306.373722514208337365
42Born Power Index0.711840.4973013.89170.9360302.254760541219368372
43Keeper0.711080.4850913.74012.0397291.578758539219358380
44Laz Index0.709210.5108113.23910.2984276.767760539221378362
45NutShell Combo0.708620.5098413.44950.4232290.404580411169285274
46NutShell Sports0.708440.5103414.00850.0378316.792758537221370355
47ComPughter Ratings0.708440.5027113.33540.4806280.579758537221371367
48MDS Model0.708210.5045213.89810.0988309.047682483199335329
49Cleanup Hitter0.706720.5059014.17612.3361336.343699494205343335
50Howell0.705800.5106713.64050.6208294.962758535223359344
51Stephen Kerns0.705160.4872513.7344-0.0158293.368736519217344362
52ThePowerRank.com0.704850.5034713.10380.4475274.416742523219363358
53Massey Ratings0.703880.5079913.2848-0.0307282.541618435183286277
54Brent Craig0.703170.4816813.51861.3501284.228758533225355382
55Beck Elo0.701280.4905113.73050.8736291.916703493210336349
56Laffaye RWP0.700000.5405413.8757-1.5578311.392760532228400340
57Marsee0.698680.4777813.99212.6526307.843760531229344376
58Covers.com0.698680.5286913.7098-0.2118303.723760531229387345
59PerformanZ Ratings0.698680.5027013.86220.7613302.269760531229372368
60Donchess Inference0.697890.5047513.46600.2313286.376758529229372365
61Laffaye XWP0.692110.4782616.52096.7767425.075760526234352384
62Bihl System0.690830.4945113.49131.1259282.167469324145225230
63Super List0.690790.5331514.55720.9633335.618760525235394345
64Loudsound.org0.690770.5639713.5236-3.1740303.556401277124216167
65Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
66Nutshell Eye0.687930.5054313.54810.5517294.092580399181279273
67FEI Projections0.687750.5098313.77470.1225302.117759522237363349
68CPA Retro0.686840.4891914.21340.2496312.580760522238362378
69Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
70Sportrends0.685160.5134714.33730.0255332.841667457210324307
71Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
72PointShare0.655170.5089613.8665-0.0945302.334580380200284274

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases