Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2015 Season Totals

Through 2016-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Thompson Average0.783610.5037512.53650.6530254.224781612169336331
2Pi-Ratings Mean0.783330.5086112.69720.5736261.137780611169384371
3Thompson ATS0.782330.4993412.56850.7644257.871781611170381382
4Line (Midweek)0.7812112.44920.8378250.953777607170
5Dokter Entropy0.781050.4987012.56500.6565256.274781610171383385
6Line (updated)0.779920.5615912.40220.7819250.418777606171269210
7Computer Adjusted Line0.779920.5500012.40990.7355251.096777606171286234
8Thompson CAL0.779770.4901412.50060.7388253.040781609172373388
9Sagarin Points0.778490.4902212.93280.2870266.482781608173376391
10Atomic Football0.778490.5244112.70810.5032262.321781608173376341
11Line (opening)0.777350.5192912.42340.6229254.649777604173323299
12ESPN FPI0.777210.4731312.71800.8125263.140781607174361402
13Sagarin Ratings0.775930.5026112.80750.3203263.881781606175385381
14Donchess Inference0.773370.5127512.76390.4536267.180781604177382363
15Pi-Rate Ratings0.773080.5183712.97261.0933272.056780603177395367
16System Median0.772090.4868112.66150.4185260.400781603178369389
17Ashby AccuRatings0.771790.5186212.69100.4400262.247780602178376349
18Sagarin Recent0.770810.5091112.74560.4322265.686781602179391377
19PI-Rate Bias0.770510.5367512.86770.9564267.903780601179409353
20Sagarin Golden Mean0.769530.5039112.75400.4136263.934781601180387381
21Keeper0.767860.5148112.98730.4011274.567448344104226213
22System Average0.766970.4758212.66070.3859260.322781599182364401
23DirectorOfInformation0.766670.5071713.20990.3329287.737780598182389378
24Edward Kambour0.765690.4928313.19910.3577280.655781598183378389
25Catherwood Ratings0.765690.5074413.30091.1908283.215781598183375364
26Born Power Index0.765380.4915013.41340.4623286.335780597183376389
27ComPughter Ratings0.762580.4895013.3502-0.0479280.182775591184373389
28Stat Fox0.761840.4959213.09471.4842279.294781595186365371
29Tempo Free Gridiron0.760180.4865313.4284-0.8914304.812663504159307324
30ThePowerRank.com0.759890.5222712.83840.2149276.367758576182387354
31Pigskin Index0.758000.5195012.63250.2898260.902781592189373345
32CPA Rankings0.758000.4641513.64690.5278291.928781592189356411
33Massey Ratings0.755440.4874512.97260.1753277.353781590191369388
34Laz Index0.754160.4609413.3350-0.1928284.172781589192354414
35Dunkel Index0.753040.4814813.10860.8603271.920741558183351378
36FEI Projections0.752880.5302013.61720.9872295.234781588193395350
37ARGH Power Ratings0.752880.4911613.17770.0458276.193781588193361374
38DP Dwiggins0.750690.4701613.59420.6856296.330722542180323364
39PerformanZ Ratings0.749040.4889213.71400.0360296.906781585196375392
40Massey Consensus0.749040.5026013.05060.7950275.938781585196386382
41Linear Regression0.748950.4742513.88710.4897308.064474355119221245
42Moore Power Ratings0.747440.5169713.07040.2724275.773780583197396370
43Howell0.747110.5000013.25290.2543286.575779582197369369
44NutShell Sports0.745200.4993413.3249-0.3740290.088781582199381382
45Payne Power Ratings0.745200.4830713.4292-0.1657290.179781582199371397
46Billingsley0.743920.5013013.3058-0.0640293.859781581200385383
47Dave Congrove0.743920.4947813.20160.1731282.058781581200379387
48Regression Based Analys0.743590.4951913.84462.7828317.088663493170309315
49The Sports Cruncher0.741650.5428212.8475-0.0329269.181778577201412347
50Stephen Kerns0.739740.5156013.65650.7181296.820780577203380357
51Bihl System0.738400.4291813.53931.2199295.152474350124200266
52Lee Burdorf0.737730.5006613.29320.2389285.656774571203380379
53Daniel Curry Index0.737520.4869813.54470.5573288.309781576205374394
54Beck Elo0.737520.4725813.33310.2815290.384781576205362404
55Billingsley+0.734960.4732713.15030.2827277.020781574207363404
56CPA Retro0.732390.4752613.98880.5327312.345781572209365403
57Laffaye RWP0.732390.4947913.6707-1.9334305.100781572209380388
58Pigskin Predictor0.731430.4528913.4943-0.5629283.91635025694149180
59Marsee0.730420.4689213.66882.0642305.686779569210347393
60MDS Model0.728210.4615413.95611.4539315.142780568212354413
61Cleanup Hitter0.724710.5060114.02280.0510327.442781566215379370
62Super List0.713190.4980415.11640.9679362.319781557224382385
63Loudsound.org0.711540.5093114.1103-3.3538322.532780555225383369
64PointShare0.707090.4766514.00080.8641316.101635449186296325
65Covers.com0.704230.4796314.5422-0.2410351.431781550231365396
66Least Squares w/ HFA0.691390.4914416.31410.8705428.706418289129201208
67Logistic Regression0.684210.4219516.0775-2.2886402.652418286132173237
68Sportrends0.669270.5428113.9961-0.0164327.251641429212336283

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases