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baseball update

Things have continued to go pretty well with the baseball numbers overall.  Last time I mentioned three categories.  Over/unders, value favorites, and underdogs.  Since the last update the over/unders have gone 14-13, and the underdogs 8-9.  The big change is that the value favorites, which were negative at the time have gone 19-2 sine then.

So of the plays I have made I am 41-30 for +9.95 on over/unders, about a 13% return, 31-18 on favorites for +9.43, a 16% return, and 28-24 on underdogs for +11.11, a 21% return.



  1. tony bianco wrote:

    Hello Todd,

    I just want to make sure on the side plays. For ex., in the Philly game the line is Philly -149. Do all the predictions have Philly losing the game by 3 or more. The (-)in front I assume means the home team will lose by that many runs, correct.

    And would it be possible to give an example when you would make a play on the favorite in the game.

    Thank you

    Tuesday, May 13, 2014 at 8:54 am | Permalink
  2. Todd (admin) wrote:

    The line is for the home team, so Philly -149 means Philly is a fairly strong favorite to win. However my numbers have Philly as a rather big loser. So this game would be an underdog pick on the Angels for today.

    To pick favorites with value I sort the games by the line. I look for games that have lower lines but higher predicted values.
    So today I see quite a few good ones right now.
    I’d rather play Texas at -115 (predicted to win by 2.16) than Washington -135 only predicted to win by 1.1. Your lines may vary.
    Detroit is a 1.5 run favorite and you only have to pay -103 for it.
    Cincinnati, Toronto, Seattle, and SF are all favored by more than a run but have fairly small lines. These teams all have lower lines than Milwaukee at -119 plus are expected to win more easily.
    So play those teams over games that have large lines like Dodgers -160 or KC -147 that have low predicted margins.

    Tuesday, May 13, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink
  3. Rodrigo wrote:

    Hi Todd, I am trying to understand your sides prediction please correct me here if I am wrong
    TOR(J.HAPP) vs. MIN(K.CORREIA) line -155 3.57 , so here the home team is a favorite by -155 and +3.57 means they will lose by 3 runs ?
    CIN/BOS line -104 and prediction -1.35 means home team to by 1.35 runs?
    Thank you in advance you work is much appreciated

    Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 11:47 am | Permalink
  4. Todd (admin) wrote:

    -155 does mean the home team is favored.
    Here +3.57 means the home team is predicted to win by 3.57 runs.
    A -1.35 would mean the road team is favoried by 1.35 runs.

    So negative line means home favored, negative prediction mean road team favored

    Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
  5. Rodrigo wrote:

    Thank you
    Todd, how are the results so far, I was trying to see which method is working great.
    Thank you in advance again.

    Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 7:15 am | Permalink
  6. Scott wrote:

    Any update on these systems?

    Sunday, August 3, 2014 at 7:51 am | Permalink
  7. Todd (admin) wrote:

    I have not attempted to apply these predictions for a couple of months now.
    Looking at the numbers overall they are not that great. The different over/under methods are all running in the 48-50% correct range, and when they all agree they are only 47%.
    Since I haven’t been making picks I don’t really know how well the sides are doing. Just as raw numbers they are only about 53%, which doesn’t seem that good picking winners.

    One problem I’ve always seen with baseball is the season is too long. The teams are not always the same team they were back in April, May, or maybe even a month ago. So I don’t know what the optimal range of games to use should be.

    Monday, August 4, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink
  8. Scott wrote:

    Thank you for the response. I noticed that the over/unders weren’t working well. However, I have found the underdog plays to,be fairly successful. I don’t have a full data set but I am guessing if you ran it might show decent profit. I also find value plays working but need to be selective and not sure I would know how to fully evaluate.

    Tuesday, August 5, 2014 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

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