Skip to content

baseball update

Things have continued to go pretty well with the baseball numbers overall.  Last time I mentioned three categories.  Over/unders, value favorites, and underdogs.  Since the last update the over/unders have gone 14-13, and the underdogs 8-9.  The big change is that the value favorites, which were negative at the time have gone 19-2 sine then.

So of the plays I have made I am 41-30 for +9.95 on over/unders, about a 13% return, 31-18 on favorites for +9.43, a 16% return, and 28-24 on underdogs for +11.11, a 21% return.

 

5 Comments

  1. tony bianco wrote:

    Hello Todd,

    I just want to make sure on the side plays. For ex., in the Philly game the line is Philly -149. Do all the predictions have Philly losing the game by 3 or more. The (-)in front I assume means the home team will lose by that many runs, correct.

    And would it be possible to give an example when you would make a play on the favorite in the game.

    Thank you

    Tuesday, May 13, 2014 at 8:54 am | Permalink
  2. Todd (admin) wrote:

    The line is for the home team, so Philly -149 means Philly is a fairly strong favorite to win. However my numbers have Philly as a rather big loser. So this game would be an underdog pick on the Angels for today.

    To pick favorites with value I sort the games by the line. I look for games that have lower lines but higher predicted values.
    So today I see quite a few good ones right now.
    I’d rather play Texas at -115 (predicted to win by 2.16) than Washington -135 only predicted to win by 1.1. Your lines may vary.
    Detroit is a 1.5 run favorite and you only have to pay -103 for it.
    Cincinnati, Toronto, Seattle, and SF are all favored by more than a run but have fairly small lines. These teams all have lower lines than Milwaukee at -119 plus are expected to win more easily.
    So play those teams over games that have large lines like Dodgers -160 or KC -147 that have low predicted margins.

    Tuesday, May 13, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink
  3. Rodrigo wrote:

    Hi Todd, I am trying to understand your sides prediction please correct me here if I am wrong
    TOR(J.HAPP) vs. MIN(K.CORREIA) line -155 3.57 , so here the home team is a favorite by -155 and +3.57 means they will lose by 3 runs ?
    CIN/BOS line -104 and prediction -1.35 means home team to by 1.35 runs?
    Thank you in advance you work is much appreciated

    Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 11:47 am | Permalink
  4. Todd (admin) wrote:

    -155 does mean the home team is favored.
    Here +3.57 means the home team is predicted to win by 3.57 runs.
    A -1.35 would mean the road team is favoried by 1.35 runs.

    So negative line means home favored, negative prediction mean road team favored

    Tuesday, June 10, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
  5. Rodrigo wrote:

    Thank you
    Todd, how are the results so far, I was trying to see which method is working great.
    Thank you in advance again.

    Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 7:15 am | Permalink

Post a Comment

Your email is never published nor shared.