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baseball

I have been making baseball picks using my posted numbers off and on through the season to date and the results are kind of interesting.  I have made picks in 3 situations.

1. Play the over/under when all the numbers agree on one side and the line is a minimum of -110.  The results so far have been 27-17 for a +9.25 units.

2.  Looking for value in picking favorites to win.  To do this I sort the games each day by the line and then look to see if any of them look to present more value that other games with a similar line.  This hasn’t worked at all with a record of 12-16 with a loss of 7.3 units.  This seems kind of strange since it is always picking favorites.

3. Compared to #2 this one is interesting.  Playing underdogs when all the predictions pick the underdog.  This has gone 20-15 for +10.34 units.

So for now playing over/under or the underdog to win any time all of the numbers are in agreement has been a good strategy.   I probably would have expected the reverse results for #2 and #3.

2 Comments

  1. tony wrote:

    Todd, when you say on the over/unders a minimum of -110, are you saying don’t play anything worse than -110, like say -115 would be no play?

    Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
  2. Todd (admin) wrote:

    correct, that is my suggestion.

    Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

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