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bowl games

For the season in these NCAA picks the top game has only gone 4-9-1. But the top 5 have at least been better than 50%, 36-33-1. None of the bowls have really high probabilities, so maybe that is a good sign.

                                                                                                                                   
home             p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg                                                    
                                                                                                                                        
Oregon          0.58568  0.36499 Wisconsin           0.41432  0.63501   6.0   2.3123                                                    
NC St.          0.46512  0.37276 Louisville          0.53488  0.62724   2.5  -0.9234                                                    
Illinois        0.46632  0.37679 UCLA                0.53368  0.62321   2.5  -0.9210                                                    
LSU             0.65333  0.61879 Alabama             0.34667  0.38121   1.0   4.2847                                                    
Iowa St.        0.56016  0.61383 Rutgers             0.43984  0.38617  -1.5   1.6463                                                    
BYU             0.47984  0.38705 Tulsa               0.52016  0.61295   2.5  -0.5344                                                    
Purdue          0.48366  0.39154 Western Mich.       0.51634  0.60846   2.5  -0.4369                                                    
Vanderbilt      0.50192  0.39369 Cincinnati          0.49808  0.60631   3.0   0.0527                                                    
Georgia         0.52497  0.39445 Michigan St.        0.47503  0.60555   3.5   0.6636                                                    
Georgia Tech    0.51443  0.40377 Utah                0.48557  0.59623   3.0   0.3880                                                    
Florida St.     0.51613  0.40592 Notre Dame          0.48387  0.59408   3.0   0.4357                                                    
Pittsburgh      0.71049  0.59356 SMU                 0.28951  0.40644   3.5   6.1046                                                    
Oklahoma        0.92962  0.59120 Iowa                0.07038  0.40880  13.5  16.0061                                                    
Arkansas        0.68041  0.41395 Kansas St.          0.31959  0.58605   7.5   5.1241                                                    
Missouri        0.74809  0.57903 North Carolina      0.25191  0.42097   5.0   7.1255                                                    
Northwestern    0.13161  0.42247 Texas A&M           0.86839  0.57753 -10.0 -12.1185                                                    
                                                                                                                                   
Ohio            0.51860  0.57491 Utah St.            0.48140  0.42509  -1.5   0.4919                                                    
Wyoming         0.33401  0.57389 Temple              0.66599  0.42611  -7.0  -4.8803                                                    
Houston         0.75050  0.57015 Penn St.            0.24950  0.42985   5.5   7.4471                                                    
Virginia Tech   0.35093  0.43981 Michigan            0.64907  0.56019  -2.5  -4.1367                                                    
Southern Miss.  0.75674  0.55765 Nevada              0.24326  0.44235   6.0   7.5797                                                    
Mississippi St. 0.77469  0.55697 Wake Forest         0.22531  0.44303   6.5   8.0243                                                    
Air Force       0.33832  0.44606 Toledo              0.66168  0.55394  -3.0  -4.4458                                                    
Auburn          0.60484  0.55038 Virginia            0.39516  0.44962   1.5   2.8636                                                    
Baylor          0.83091  0.54955 Washington          0.16909  0.45045   9.0  10.3451                                                    
Clemson         0.58306  0.45121 West Va.            0.41694  0.54879   3.5   2.2087                                                    
Marshall        0.39794  0.54420 Florida Intl.       0.60206  0.45580  -4.0  -2.7987                                                    
Ohio St.        0.45703  0.53279 Florida             0.54297  0.46721  -2.0  -1.1348                                                    
South Carolina  0.62414  0.53170 Nebraska            0.37586  0.46830   2.5   3.3398                                                    
Oklahoma St.    0.65553  0.53027 Stanford            0.34447  0.46973   3.5   4.3195                                                    
TCU             0.82022  0.47043 Louisiana Tech      0.17978  0.52957  10.5   9.7135                                                    
Texas           0.62754  0.51789 California          0.37246  0.48211   3.0   3.4798                                                    
Boise St.       0.89537  0.48785 Arizona St.         0.10463  0.51215  14.0  13.6684                                                    
Northern Ill.   0.46707  0.50512 Arkansas St.        0.53293  0.49488  -1.0  -0.8656                                                    
San Diego St.   0.68403  0.50338 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.31597  0.49662   5.0   5.0901                                                    

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