Fore-Tracks

These picks did very well last week, 1-0 on the top pick and 3-0 on the top 3.
That makes the top pick 7-2 on the season, and the top 3 17-10.
Those numbers look very good but I want to point out that this is just a test and I am still not convinced that the probabilities are really what they say they are. The biggest reason these numbers are working is that that system average is hitting 56% as a whole, across all games. In the NCAA the computer average is less than 50% and the numbers are also less than 50%. The lines in the NFL have not been very accurate this season. I expect that to change as we progress through the end of the season. So I am looking for these numbers to decline.

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road           p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg                                                     

 Cincinnati     0.56055   0.66923  Pittsburgh    0.43945   0.33077   -3.0    1.6014
 San Francisco  0.76838   0.65718  N.Y. Giants   0.23162   0.34282    3.5    7.8093
 Dallas         0.56146   0.35573  Buffalo       0.43854   0.64427    5.5    1.6218
 Philadelphia   0.85044   0.36733  Arizona       0.14956   0.63267   14.5   10.9317
 Seattle        0.18408   0.38698  Baltimore     0.81592   0.61302   -6.5   -9.5467
 Chicago        0.50762   0.39417  Detroit       0.49238   0.60583    3.0    0.1993
 Carolina       0.54885   0.41702  Tennessee     0.45115   0.58298    3.5    1.2930
 Indianapolis   0.31436   0.41798  Jacksonville  0.68564   0.58202   -3.0   -5.2469
 Cleveland      0.68408   0.57557  St. Louis     0.31592   0.42443    3.0    4.9814
 Atlanta        0.53052   0.56827  New Orleans   0.46948   0.43173   -1.0    0.8026
 Miami          0.58636   0.43669  Washington    0.41364   0.56331    4.0    2.3116
 Green Bay      0.92290   0.56048  Minnesota     0.07710   0.43952   13.5   15.1143
 Kansas City    0.56107   0.44889  Denver        0.43893   0.55111    3.0    1.6341
 San Diego      0.71053   0.45565  Oakland       0.28947   0.54435    7.0    5.8297
 Tampa Bay      0.36387   0.47407  Houston       0.63613   0.52593   -3.0   -3.6895
 N.Y. Jets      0.56547   0.50876  New England   0.43453   0.49124    1.5    1.7304