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NFL Week 9

Last week the top game was correct even though the rest of the top 3 were wrong. That makes the top pick 6-2, and the top 3 14-10 on the season. The ratings still don’t like Philadelphia too much but love San Francisco. In contrast to the NCAA. The reason the NFL results are better is that that computer average is about 54% overall. 

 home           p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg                                                     

 Philadelphia  0.61838   0.33955  Chicago        0.38162   0.66045    7.5    3.1600
 Tennessee     0.46883   0.35846  Cincinnati     0.53117   0.64154    3.0   -0.8252
 Washington    0.24877   0.36217  San Francisco  0.75123   0.63783   -3.5   -7.2896
 Arizona       0.70399   0.63472  St. Louis      0.29601   0.36528    2.0    5.5967
 Kansas City   0.75391   0.62311  Miami          0.24609   0.37689    4.0    7.3618
 Indianapolis  0.17683   0.39140  Atlanta        0.82317   0.60860   -7.0   -9.9605
 Buffalo       0.67181   0.60160  N.Y. Jets      0.32819   0.39840    2.0    4.7475
 Dallas        0.82651   0.43514  Seattle        0.17349   0.56486   11.5    9.7985
 Pittsburgh    0.55802   0.44536  Baltimore      0.44198   0.55464    3.0    1.5453
 New Orleans   0.79741   0.53148  Tampa Bay      0.20259   0.46852    8.0    8.8387
 Oakland       0.75904   0.47290  Denver         0.24096   0.52710    8.0    7.2947
 San Diego     0.28548   0.48033  Green Bay      0.71452   0.51967   -5.5   -6.0245
 Houston       0.86326   0.51926  Cleveland      0.13674   0.48074   11.0   11.5076
 New England   0.81138   0.51176  N.Y. Giants    0.18862   0.48824    9.0    9.3108
This was written by admin. Posted on Friday, November 4, 2011, at 7:57 am. Filed under Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Follow comments here with the RSS feed. Trackbacks are closed, but you can post a comment.

6 Comments

  1. LEONARD V INGRANDO wrote:

    Todd,

    Been using Sagarin for years. Just ran across your site….you mention your “top picks” can you tell me where to look.

    Also, I’d like to understand better how you make these picks from the information you provide.

    Thanks in advance,
    Leonard Ingrando

    Wednesday, November 9, 2011 at 7:57 am | Permalink
  2. Dan wrote:

    “you mention your “top picks” can you tell me where to look.”

    I assume his “top pick” for each week is just the highest p(cover) percentage in each week’s table.

    For Week 9, that would have been the Bears at 66.045% chance of covering the spread. The Bears covered the spread and then some, making the top pick 7-2 through nine weeks.

    Rounding out the top 3 would have been the Bengals and 49ers at 64.154% and 63.783%, respectively, making the top 3 3-0 this past week and thus 17-10 on the season.

    Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 11:58 am | Permalink
  3. admin wrote:

    Yes, the top pick is based on the highest p(cover). The list is sorted by this number.

    Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 12:02 pm | Permalink
  4. Dan wrote:

    Week 10 picks forthcoming?

    Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 12:28 pm | Permalink
  5. admin wrote:

    Friday Mornings. I wait for as many systems to be available as possible.
    The Thursday night NFL game won’t be near the top of the list because the line and computer average are very close.

    Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 12:34 pm | Permalink
  6. Dan wrote:

    Any chance you could incorporate at least provisional/”unofficial” p(win) and p(cover) numbers into the table at the top of your main NFL page?

    (For those of us in need of ratings before the start of play on Thursday Night Football weeks.)

    Thursday, November 10, 2011 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

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