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round 2

  home             p(win)   p(cover)   road           p(win)   p(cover)   line   lineavg

  Denver          0.53179    0.36177   Pittsburgh    0.46821    0.63823    8.0   1.42139
  New England     0.51231    0.41524   Kansas City   0.48769    0.58476    4.5   0.55896
  Arizona         0.63004    0.47991   Green Bay     0.36996    0.52009    7.0   6.10823
  Carolina        0.51362    0.48015   Seattle       0.48638    0.51985    1.5   0.61034

wild card games

Here are the wild card games. With last week being between holidays I never got around to posting the games of the final week.

As for the NCAA championship game. The numbers give Alabama about a 60% chance to win but Clemson a 53.5% chance of covering a spread of 6.5.

 home             p(win)   p(cover)   road           p(win)   p(cover)   line    lineavg

 Cincinnati      0.55567    0.61795   Pittsburgh    0.44433    0.38205   -3.0    2.50336
 Minnesota       0.46084    0.56163   Seattle       0.53916    0.43837   -4.5   -1.74042
 Washington      0.48115    0.45915   Green Bay     0.51885    0.54085    1.0   -0.85033
 Houston         0.43905    0.50584   Kansas City   0.56095    0.49416   -3.0   -2.74051

NFL Week 16

Merry Christmas!
I am not updating regularly this week.

Last week the top 3 went 2-1. 24-20-1 foe the season, The to; game is 10-5.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Kansas City     0.76138    0.58575   Cleveland       0.23862    0.41425    11.5    15.4786
Denver          0.49880    0.42214   Cincinnati      0.50120    0.57786     3.5    -0.0536
Detroit         0.63822    0.42265   San Francisco   0.36178    0.57735    10.0     6.5165
Tampa Bay       0.50200    0.43535   Chicago         0.49800    0.56465     3.0     0.0887
Atlanta         0.31895    0.44237   Carolina        0.68105    0.55763    -6.5    -9.1085
Miami           0.52042    0.45306   Indianapolis    0.47958    0.54694     3.0     0.9058
Baltimore       0.33051    0.53319   Pittsburgh      0.66949    0.46681   -10.0    -8.4916
Arizona         0.62537    0.53047   Green Bay       0.37463    0.46953     4.5     5.8522
Philadelphia    0.53988    0.47287   Washington      0.46012    0.52713     3.0     1.7876
Oakland         0.57858    0.47898   San Diego       0.42142    0.52102     4.5     3.5646
Minnesota       0.61366    0.48386   N.Y. Giants     0.38634    0.51614     6.0     5.2817
New Orleans     0.56785    0.48968   Jacksonville    0.43215    0.51032     3.5     3.0439
N.Y. Jets       0.42569    0.49145   New England     0.57431    0.50855    -3.0    -3.3819
Buffalo         0.62616    0.49753   Dallas          0.37384    0.50247     6.0     5.8909
Seattle         0.73425    0.49801   St. Louis       0.26575    0.50199    13.0    12.9111
Tennessee       0.41586     .        Houston         0.58414     .           .     -3.8381

Bowl Games

The NCAA predictions have had a good year. Although looking at the overall results we came out quite lucky. The top 5 games each week ended up a little less than 59%. But all games all season only went 48%. So at least for this year sorting them out made a big difference.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Auburn               0.44235  0.38830 Memphis              0.55765  0.61170   3.0  -3.0028
Oregon               0.40491  0.40491 TCU                  0.59509  0.59509   0.0  -4.8555
Oklahoma St.         0.42504  0.57273 Mississippi          0.57496  0.42727  -7.5  -3.8088
Texas A&M            0.54349  0.57264 Louisville           0.45651  0.42736  -1.5   2.1758
Duke                 0.52960  0.56875 Indiana              0.47040  0.43125  -2.0   1.4783
Arizona St.          0.43516  0.43516 West Va.             0.56484  0.56484   0.0  -3.2694
Northern Ill.        0.39776  0.56242 Boise St.            0.60224  0.43758  -8.5  -5.3222
Western Mich.        0.62230  0.55996 Middle Tenn.         0.37770  0.44004   3.5   6.6225
Northwestern         0.39871  0.55865 Tennessee            0.60129  0.44135  -8.5  -5.4287
Michigan             0.53759  0.44712 Florida              0.46241  0.55288   4.5   1.8645
Alabama              0.63135  0.44849 Michigan St.         0.36865  0.55151   9.5   6.9196
Washington St.       0.50951  0.44932 Miami (Fla.)         0.49049  0.55068   3.0   0.4705
Arkansas             0.66358  0.45305 Kansas St.           0.33642  0.54695  11.5   9.1039
Louisiana Tech       0.49334  0.45401 Arkansas St.         0.50666  0.54599   2.0  -0.3363
Minnesota            0.57539  0.45833 Central Mich.        0.42461  0.54167   6.0   3.8824
Bowling Green        0.67216  0.54148 Georgia Southern     0.32784  0.45852   7.5   9.5931
Florida St.          0.59675  0.45921 Houston              0.40325  0.54079   7.0   4.9619
Georgia St.          0.49091  0.53964 San Jose St.         0.50909  0.46036  -2.5  -0.4645
Stanford             0.59742  0.46080 Iowa                 0.40258  0.53920   7.0   5.0299
LSU                  0.61425  0.46936 Texas Tech           0.38575  0.53064   7.5   5.9649
Temple               0.50238  0.47204 Toledo               0.49762  0.52796   1.5   0.1172
Navy                 0.54287  0.47293 Pittsburgh           0.45713  0.52707   3.5   2.1484
Washington           0.67214  0.52472 Southern Miss.       0.32786  0.47528   8.5   9.7653
New Mexico           0.34295  0.47573 Arizona              0.65705  0.52427  -7.5  -8.7422
Mississippi St.      0.59761  0.47913 NC St.               0.40239  0.52087   6.0   4.9695
Appalachian St.      0.62215  0.47960 Ohio                 0.37785  0.52040   7.5   6.4712
Utah St.             0.60459  0.48016 Akron                0.39541  0.51984   6.5   5.4945
North Carolina       0.47876  0.51879 Baylor               0.52124  0.48121  -2.0  -1.0614
Ohio St.             0.60849  0.48159 Notre Dame           0.39151  0.51841   6.5   5.5880
USC                  0.54377  0.48366 Wisconsin            0.45623  0.51634   3.0   2.1876
San Diego St.        0.53482  0.51505 Cincinnati           0.46518  0.48495   1.0   1.7566
Colorado St.         0.57353  0.51399 Nevada               0.42647  0.48601   3.0   3.6902
UCLA                 0.61455  0.48887 Nebraska             0.38545  0.51113   6.5   5.9472
Clemson              0.42445  0.49163 Oklahoma             0.57555  0.50837  -3.5  -3.9267
South Florida        0.45362  0.50347 Western Kentucky     0.54638  0.49653  -2.5  -2.3272
California           0.63740  0.49662 Air Force            0.36260  0.50338   7.5   7.3312
Marshall             0.58369  0.49683 Connecticut          0.41631  0.50317   4.5   4.3392
Virginia Tech        0.72050  0.49866 Tulsa                0.27950  0.50134  13.5  13.4320
Georgia              0.62502  0.50099 Penn St.             0.37498  0.49901   6.5   6.5490
Utah                 0.54934  0.49926 BYU                  0.45066  0.50074   2.5   2.463

NFL Week 15

Gave up a little more ground last week with the top 3 going 1-2. The top 3 are now 22-19-1. The top game is 9-5. I wonder how much luck has been involved. The numbers are based on the system average and the system average is exactly 50% across all the games this year. So we me be regressing to the mean.
This week’s top game involves a backup quarterback.

 home             phwin    phcover   road           prwin    prcover    line    lineavg

  San Francisco   0.31828   0.39861   Cincinnati    0.68172   0.60139    -4.5    -9.2495
  New England     0.77666   0.57057   Tennessee     0.22334   0.42943    14.0    17.2946
  Pittsburgh      0.58630   0.44470   Denver        0.41370   0.55530     6.5     3.9845
  Philadelphia    0.37376   0.44497   Arizona       0.62624   0.55503    -3.5    -6.0032
  New Orleans     0.51760   0.45053   Detroit       0.48240   0.54947     3.0     0.7830
  Seattle         0.76874   0.54300   Cleveland     0.23126   0.45700    14.5    16.4920
  N.Y. Giants     0.35746   0.45839   Carolina      0.64254   0.54161    -5.0    -6.8845
  Jacksonville    0.53803   0.47054   Atlanta       0.46197   0.52946     3.0     1.6920
  Oakland         0.40917   0.47443   Green Bay     0.59083   0.52557    -3.0    -4.1345
  St. Louis       0.55351   0.52040   Tampa Bay     0.44649   0.47960     1.5     2.4121
  San Diego       0.56020   0.51598   Miami         0.43980   0.48402     2.0     2.7118
  Dallas          0.44893   0.51561   N.Y. Jets     0.55107   0.48439    -3.0    -2.3019
  Minnesota       0.60638   0.48609   Chicago       0.39362   0.51391     5.5     4.8848
  Washington      0.46912   0.49157   Buffalo       0.53088   0.50843    -1.0    -1.3739
  Baltimore       0.36039   0.50513   Kansas City   0.63961   0.49487    -7.0    -6.7676
  Indianapolis    0.52272    .        Houston       0.47728    .           .      1.0096

NFL week 14

Last week a 0-3 week put a damper on what had been a great season.
Season total falls to 21-17-1, The top game is 8-5

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Carolina        0.71552    0.58758   Atlanta         0.28448    0.41242     7.5    11.5593
Cincinnati      0.62564    0.56399   Pittsburgh      0.37436    0.43601     3.0     5.8728
Cleveland       0.47403    0.44117   San Francisco   0.52597    0.55883     1.5    -1.1659
Denver          0.69610    0.55729   Oakland         0.30390    0.44271     7.5    10.0940
St. Louis       0.50079    0.55638   Detroit         0.49921    0.44362    -2.5     0.0354
Kansas City     0.72611    0.55591   San Diego       0.27389    0.44409    10.0    12.5999
N.Y. Jets       0.68645    0.55333   Tennessee       0.31355    0.44667     7.0     9.3948
Jacksonville    0.45225    0.45225   Indianapolis    0.54775    0.54775     0.0    -2.1326
Houston         0.39114    0.45408   New England     0.60886    0.54592    -3.0    -5.0683
Green Bay       0.67316    0.53529   Dallas          0.32684    0.46471     7.0     8.5788
Chicago         0.59813    0.53325   Washington      0.40187    0.46675     3.0     4.4721
Arizona         0.68469    0.47399   Minnesota       0.31531    0.52601    10.5     9.3339
Miami           0.49136    0.51396   N.Y. Giants     0.50864    0.48604    -1.0    -0.3823
Philadelphia    0.48984    0.51227   Buffalo         0.51016    0.48773    -1.0    -0.4529
Tampa Bay       0.58713    0.51078   New Orleans     0.41287    0.48922     3.5     3.9801
Baltimore       0.37057    0.49631   Seattle         0.62943    0.50369    -6.0    -6.166

NFL week 13

2-1 last week. The top 3 are now 21-14-1 on the season. The top game is now 8-4

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)   line    lineavg

New England     0.74065    0.59584   Philadelphia    0.25935    0.40416    9.5    14.1653
Miami           0.49796    0.41017   Baltimore       0.50204    0.58983    4.0    -0.0905
N.Y. Giants     0.52759    0.58216   N.Y. Jets       0.47241    0.41784   -2.5     1.2268
New Orleans     0.31077    0.43739   Carolina        0.68923    0.56261   -7.0    -9.9255
Pittsburgh      0.60200    0.44770   Indianapolis    0.39800    0.55230    7.0     4.6678
Oakland         0.38617    0.44787   Kansas City     0.61383    0.55213   -3.0    -5.3791
San Diego       0.37030    0.45211   Denver          0.62970    0.54789   -4.0    -6.1651
Tennessee       0.51454    0.45807   Jacksonville    0.48546    0.54193    2.5     0.6413
Washington      0.56709    0.46714   Dallas          0.43291    0.53286    4.5     3.0320
Chicago         0.67000    0.53086   San Francisco   0.33000    0.46914    7.0     8.3778
Cleveland       0.29457    0.47116   Cincinnati      0.70543    0.52884   -9.5   -10.8036
St. Louis       0.35765    0.47121   Arizona         0.64235    0.52879   -5.5    -6.7827
Buffalo         0.58386    0.51800   Houston         0.41614    0.48200    3.0     3.7968
Minnesota       0.51652    0.51652   Seattle         0.48348    0.48348    0.0     0.7314
Tampa Bay       0.51882    0.48520   Atlanta         0.48118    0.51480    1.5     0.8398
Detroit         0.43438    0.50090   Green Bay       0.56562    0.49910   -3.0    -2.9600

NCAA week 14

A 2-3 record last week drops the season totals to 37-26-1 in the top 5 and 8-5 for the top game.


home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Bowling Green        0.63973  0.40224 Northern Ill.        0.36027  0.59776  12.5   7.4603
Alabama              0.72488  0.41831 Florida              0.27512  0.58169  18.0  13.7670
Arkansas St.         0.78807  0.42238 Texas St.            0.21193  0.57762  25.5  21.3315
Louisiana-Monroe     0.49027  0.43139 New Mexico St.       0.50973  0.56861   3.0  -0.4867
San Diego St.        0.63073  0.54924 Air Force            0.36927  0.45076   4.5   7.0104
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.50198  0.46321 Troy St.             0.49802  0.53679   2.0   0.1018
Western Kentucky     0.66429  0.52838 Southern Miss.       0.33571  0.47162   7.5   8.9025
Clemson              0.56060  0.47241 North Carolina       0.43940  0.52759   4.5   3.1014
Baylor               0.79554  0.52751 Texas                0.20446  0.47249  20.0  21.3864
South Alabama        0.24274  0.52166 Appalachian St.      0.75726  0.47834 -18.0 -16.8999
Stanford             0.57243  0.48238 USC                  0.42757  0.51762   4.5   3.6309
Kansas St.           0.38469  0.50873 West Va.             0.61531  0.49127  -6.5  -6.0614
Georgia Southern     0.78984  0.49310 Georgia St.          0.21016  0.50690  21.0  20.6524
Houston              0.62147  0.50538 Temple               0.37853  0.49462   6.0   6.2636
Iowa                 0.42589  0.49482 Michigan St.         0.57411  0.50518  -3.5  -3.7578

NCAA week 13

Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

Last week the top 5 went 3-2. The season record is now 35-23-1. The top game is 7-5

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Oregon               0.83579  0.39579 Oregon St.           0.16421  0.60421  36.0  30.1861
North Texas          0.46786  0.41041 UTEP                 0.53214  0.58959   3.0  -1.6185
Florida              0.53129  0.58882 Florida St.          0.46871  0.41118  -3.0   1.5750
Ball St.             0.22725  0.57136 Bowling Green        0.77275  0.42864 -23.0 -19.2057
Washington           0.55478  0.42895 Washington St.       0.44522  0.57105   6.5   2.8187
Appalachian St.      0.78343  0.43073 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.21657  0.56927  23.5  19.9330
TCU                  0.48092  0.44108 Baylor               0.51908  0.55892   2.0  -0.9431
Toledo               0.69066  0.55607 Western Mich.        0.30934  0.44393   8.0  10.8219
Syracuse             0.49391  0.55343 Boston College       0.50609  0.44657  -3.0  -0.3043
Western Kentucky     0.64508  0.44812 Marshall             0.35492  0.55188  10.5   7.8623
Purdue               0.42184  0.55048 Indiana              0.57816  0.44952  -6.5  -3.9680
Texas-San Antonio    0.32761  0.54854 Middle Tenn.         0.67239  0.45146 -12.0  -9.5581
Utah                 0.77241  0.54809 Colorado             0.22759  0.45191  16.0  18.4370
Oklahoma St.         0.40925  0.54667 Oklahoma             0.59075  0.45333  -7.0  -4.6548
Central Mich.        0.81679  0.54556 Eastern Mich.        0.18321  0.45444  23.5  25.9241
Buffalo              0.66044  0.54463 Massachusetts        0.33956  0.45537   6.5   8.7349
Houston              0.48467  0.54445 Navy                 0.51533  0.45555  -3.0  -0.7661
NC St.               0.37206  0.45555 North Carolina       0.62794  0.54445  -4.5  -6.7229
Minnesota            0.40872  0.45646 Wisconsin            0.59128  0.54354  -2.5  -4.6881
Nebraska             0.41190  0.45833 Iowa                 0.58810  0.54167  -2.5  -4.6604
San Jose St.         0.32972  0.46233 Boise St.            0.67028  0.53767  -7.5  -9.3828
Michigan St.         0.71498  0.53458 Penn St.             0.28502  0.46542  11.0  12.7339
Illinois             0.40198  0.46832 Northwestern         0.59802  0.53168  -3.5  -5.1013
Old Dominion         0.45355  0.53138 Florida Atlantic     0.54645  0.46862  -4.0  -2.3911
Michigan             0.46920  0.46920 Ohio St.             0.53080  0.53080   0.0  -1.5363
South Carolina       0.23379  0.46954 Clemson              0.76621  0.53046 -17.0 -18.6132
Louisiana Tech       0.61547  0.53022 Southern Miss.       0.38453  0.46978   4.5   6.0068
Kansas               0.23023  0.52962 Kansas St.           0.76977  0.47038 -20.0 -18.4773
Georgia Tech         0.43907  0.52684 Georgia              0.56093  0.47316  -4.5  -3.1335
Georgia Southern     0.79437  0.52524 South Alabama        0.20563  0.47476  20.5  21.8062
Pittsburgh           0.64481  0.52449 Miami (Fla.)         0.35519  0.47551   6.5   7.7163
Memphis              0.80193  0.52426 SMU                  0.19807  0.47574  21.5  22.7462
New Mexico St.       0.25363  0.52332 Arkansas St.         0.74637  0.47668 -17.0 -15.8128
Kentucky             0.40073  0.47783 Louisville           0.59927  0.52217  -4.0  -5.1044
Akron                0.69997  0.52195 Kent                 0.30003  0.47805  10.5  11.6031
Auburn               0.25427  0.47813 Alabama              0.74573  0.52187 -14.5 -15.6031
Northern Ill.        0.71155  0.47884 Ohio                 0.28845  0.52116  13.5  12.4429
Temple               0.71969  0.52064 Connecticut          0.28031  0.47936  12.0  13.0245
San Diego St.        0.75396  0.48099 Nevada               0.24604  0.51901  17.5  16.5356
Arkansas             0.71743  0.48134 Missouri             0.28257  0.51866  14.0  13.0584
Georgia St.          0.50167  0.48177 Troy St.             0.49833  0.51823   1.0   0.0840
Stanford             0.56373  0.48447 Notre Dame           0.43627  0.51553   4.0   3.2244
East Carolina        0.50518  0.48487 Cincinnati           0.49482  0.51513   1.0   0.2551
Virginia             0.42604  0.48543 Virginia Tech        0.57396  0.51457  -3.0  -3.7204
Utah St.             0.42727  0.48652 BYU                  0.57273  0.51348  -3.0  -3.6688
Tennessee            0.76983  0.51287 Vanderbilt           0.23017  0.48713  17.5  18.1479
Central Florida      0.21012  0.48907 South Florida        0.78988  0.51093 -23.0 -23.6300
Fresno St.           0.32871  0.51009 Colorado St.         0.67129  0.48991 -10.0  -9.4954
Wake Forest          0.41214  0.49014 Duke                 0.58786  0.50986  -4.0  -4.4911
Idaho                0.55860  0.50876 Texas St.            0.44140  0.49124   2.5   2.9340
Rice                 0.68887  0.49364 Charlotte            0.31113  0.50636  11.0  10.6834
New Mexico           0.31792  0.49418 Air Force            0.68208  0.50582 -10.0 -10.2925
Tulane               0.37052  0.50494 Tulsa                0.62948  0.49506  -7.0  -6.7566
Wyoming              0.44488  0.50444 UNLV                 0.55512  0.49556  -3.0  -2.7786
Mississippi St.      0.50389  0.50389 Mississippi          0.49611  0.49611   0.0   0.1924
Rutgers              0.51755  0.49753 Maryland             0.48245  0.50247   1.0   0.8766
California           0.57148  0.50224 Arizona St.          0.42852  0.49776   3.5   3.6114
USC                  0.56172  0.50176 UCLA                 0.43828  0.49824   3.0   3.0870
LSU                  0.60629  0.49893 Texas A&M            0.39371  0.50107   5.5   5.4472
West Va.             0.72981  0.50063 Iowa St.             0.27019  0.49937  14.0  14.0314
Texas                0.46938  0.49954 Texas Tech           0.53062  0.50046  -1.5  -1.5229
Hawaii               0.59466   .      Louisiana-Monroe     0.40534   .         .    4.842

NFL Week 12

Last week the top 3 games went 1-1-1. The season record is now 19-13-1. The top game is 7-4

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Dallas          0.37935    0.36103   Carolina       0.62065    0.63897     1.0    -5.8313
Cleveland       0.45852    0.39465   Baltimore      0.54148    0.60535     3.0    -1.8494
Detroit         0.48018    0.41484   Philadelphia   0.51982    0.58516     3.0    -0.8831
Houston         0.61219    0.54950   New Orleans    0.38781    0.45050     3.0     5.2283
Washington      0.46767    0.53508   N.Y. Giants    0.53233    0.46492    -3.0    -1.4384
Cincinnati      0.70157    0.53045   St. Louis      0.29843    0.46955     9.0    10.3533
N.Y. Jets       0.60355    0.52824   Miami          0.39645    0.47176     3.5     4.7540
Denver          0.40788    0.47258   New England    0.59212    0.52742    -3.0    -4.2253
Indianapolis    0.59163    0.52684   Tampa Bay      0.40837    0.47316     3.0     4.1986
Jacksonville    0.56351    0.47455   San Diego      0.43649    0.52545     4.0     2.8648
Kansas City     0.61961    0.48077   Buffalo        0.38039    0.51923     6.5     5.6359
Green Bay       0.67493    0.51536   Chicago        0.32507    0.48464     8.0     8.6847
Seattle         0.56913    0.49134   Pittsburgh     0.43087    0.50866     3.5     3.1156
Atlanta         0.51678    0.49433   Minnesota      0.48322    0.50567     1.0     0.7475
San Francisco   0.30328    0.49587   Arizona        0.69672    0.50413   -10.0   -10.1859
Tennessee       0.46569    0.49947   Oakland        0.53431    0.50053    -1.5    -1.5232