home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Baltimore 0.68324 0.40416 Houston 0.31676 0.59584 7.5 4.9708 San Francisco 0.45478 0.58543 New Orleans 0.54522 0.41457 -3.5 -1.2070 Green Bay 0.79951 0.55564 N.Y. Giants 0.20049 0.44436 7.5 8.9994 New England 0.90118 0.51568 Denver 0.09882 0.48432 13.5 13.9251
last week finished the regular season off strong with a 3-0 record in the top 3 games.
So the final results for the NFL season were 11-6 for the top game, and 33-18 for the top 3 games.
I’ll continue to post these odds but will stop the record keeping here.
For the season, when p(cover) was > .55 the record was 61.5%, when p>.60 the record was 65.8%,
when p>.65 the record was 70.3%, when p>.70 then record was 74.7%.
Definitely good results. Hopefully next season can duplicate this. But I do remain skeptical. Overall the mean prediction was 58.1% which is unusually high. So I think a large part of it was that it was just a lucky year.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg N.Y. Giants 0.53170 0.41657 Atlanta 0.46830 0.58343 3.0 0.82229 Denver 0.27348 0.57908 Pittsburgh 0.72652 0.42092 -8.5 -6.38467 New Orleans 0.79020 0.42735 Detroit 0.20980 0.57265 10.5 8.55825 Houston 0.67296 0.52623 Cincinnati 0.32704 0.47377 4.0 4.68853
For those that manipulated your ratings last week to have the 14-1 Green Bay Packers lose at home, I laugh in your general direction. I’m trying to measure computer systems/algorithms not people.
Last week the top 3 were 2-1 but the lone miss was the top game. The top game is 10-6, and the top 3 30-18 for the entire season. The flaw in just taking the top game is injuries. Houston had been coming out as the top game for 4 weeks in a row. This week they at least drop down to #2. But then it is replaced by the Packers who have nothing to play for and will likely sit out some key players.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Green Bay 0.74835 0.84077 Detroit 0.25165 0.15923 -3.5 7.1342 Houston 0.71324 0.80163 Tennessee 0.28676 0.19837 -3.0 5.9335 New Orleans 0.86991 0.64128 Carolina 0.13009 0.35872 8.0 11.7889 Oakland 0.49489 0.38231 San Diego 0.50511 0.61769 3.0 -0.1341 Minnesota 0.43551 0.39824 Chicago 0.56449 0.60176 1.0 -1.6993 St. Louis 0.10937 0.40242 San Francisco 0.89063 0.59758 -10.5 -13.1400 Arizona 0.51827 0.40405 Seattle 0.48173 0.59595 3.0 0.4762 New England 0.88977 0.58790 Buffalo 0.11023 0.41210 10.5 12.8252 Atlanta 0.89942 0.58358 Tampa Bay 0.10058 0.41642 11.5 13.7745 Jacksonville 0.70473 0.58012 Indianapolis 0.29527 0.41988 3.5 5.6071 Denver 0.66462 0.55512 Kansas City 0.33538 0.44488 3.0 4.4514 N.Y. Giants 0.57280 0.45760 Dallas 0.42720 0.54240 3.0 1.8984 Cleveland 0.23363 0.47898 Pittsburgh 0.76637 0.52102 -7.0 -7.5473 Cincinnati 0.43904 0.51570 Baltimore 0.56096 0.48430 -2.0 -1.5916 Philadelphia 0.79943 0.51173 Washington 0.20057 0.48827 8.5 8.8084 Miami 0.58301 0.48860 N.Y. Jets 0.41699 0.51140 2.5 2.2000
Last week was the first losing week for a while, 1-2. That makes the top pick10-5, and the top 3 28-17. The top 3 this week look kind of iffy to me.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Indianapolis 0.14238 0.33667 Houston 0.85762 0.66333 -7.0 -11.5531 Kansas City 0.51407 0.41908 Oakland 0.48593 0.58092 2.5 0.3682 Buffalo 0.46267 0.57666 Denver 0.53733 0.42334 -3.0 -0.9794 N.Y. Jets 0.67304 0.56366 N.Y. Giants 0.32696 0.43634 3.0 4.6692 Tennessee 0.73163 0.45831 Jacksonville 0.26837 0.54169 7.5 6.4131 Washington 0.69951 0.45875 Minnesota 0.30049 0.54125 6.5 5.4255 Pittsburgh 0.94527 0.53214 St. Louis 0.05473 0.46786 16.0 16.8491 New England 0.83880 0.53074 Miami 0.16120 0.46926 9.5 10.3032 Dallas 0.58295 0.52631 Philadelphia 0.41705 0.47369 1.5 2.1901 Green Bay 0.88152 0.47753 Chicago 0.11848 0.52247 13.0 12.4087 Seattle 0.38655 0.48012 San Francisco 0.61345 0.51988 -2.5 -3.0227 Carolina 0.77352 0.51927 Tampa Bay 0.22648 0.48073 7.5 8.0163 Baltimore 0.89135 0.51585 Cleveland 0.10865 0.48415 12.5 12.9159 Cincinnati 0.66302 0.51379 Arizona 0.33698 0.48621 4.0 4.3581 New Orleans 0.72538 0.48773 Atlanta 0.27462 0.51227 6.5 6.1826 Detroit 0.58328 0.48962 San Diego 0.41672 0.51038 2.5 2.2247
I’ve got two new papers (as the statistician co-author) that are in press this month. One in the Journal Epidemiology, “Accounting for Bias Due to Selective Attrition. The example of Smoking and Cognitive Decline”. And another in the journal Neuro-Epidemiology. “Characteristics of MR Infarcts Associated with Dementia and Cognitive Function in the Elderly”.
I’ll be heading home for the holidays Tuesday night. So things could get updated slowly.
It was another wining week last week for the NFL picks. 1-0 on the top game and 2-1 for the top 3.
That makes the top game 10-4 this season and the top 3, 27-15.
I don’t like that fact that Houston has been the top pick every week since they lost their quarterback but so far they have kept winning.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Houston 0.87368 0.70185 Carolina 0.12632 0.29815 6.5 12.1055 Philadelphia 0.47531 0.36316 N.Y. Jets 0.52469 0.63684 3.0 -0.6450 Minnesota 0.19151 0.40058 New Orleans 0.80849 0.59942 -6.5 -9.1383 Atlanta 0.81865 0.40165 Jacksonville 0.18135 0.59835 12.0 9.4219 Indianapolis 0.19635 0.40430 Tennessee 0.80365 0.59570 -6.5 -9.0705 Chicago 0.70060 0.57606 Seattle 0.29940 0.42394 3.5 5.5085 Tampa Bay 0.30934 0.56860 Dallas 0.69066 0.43140 -7.0 -5.1960 Denver 0.30441 0.54310 New England 0.69559 0.45690 -6.5 -5.3652 St. Louis 0.23776 0.46076 Cincinnati 0.76224 0.53924 -6.5 -7.5412 Oakland 0.42534 0.46318 Detroit 0.57466 0.53682 -1.0 -1.9644 San Francisco 0.55963 0.46406 Pittsburgh 0.44037 0.53594 2.5 1.5613 Arizona 0.70451 0.46407 Cleveland 0.29549 0.53593 6.5 5.5659 Kansas City 0.08793 0.46688 Green Bay 0.91207 0.53312 -13.5 -14.3831 Buffalo 0.47223 0.52910 Miami 0.52777 0.47090 -1.5 -0.7323 San Diego 0.38021 0.47317 Baltimore 0.61979 0.52683 -2.5 -3.2082 N.Y. Giants 0.75647 0.50779 Washington 0.24353 0.49221 7.0 7.2024
For the season in these NCAA picks the top game has only gone 4-9-1. But the top 5 have at least been better than 50%, 36-33-1. None of the bowls have really high probabilities, so maybe that is a good sign.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Oregon 0.58568 0.36499 Wisconsin 0.41432 0.63501 6.0 2.3123 NC St. 0.46512 0.37276 Louisville 0.53488 0.62724 2.5 -0.9234 Illinois 0.46632 0.37679 UCLA 0.53368 0.62321 2.5 -0.9210 LSU 0.65333 0.61879 Alabama 0.34667 0.38121 1.0 4.2847 Iowa St. 0.56016 0.61383 Rutgers 0.43984 0.38617 -1.5 1.6463 BYU 0.47984 0.38705 Tulsa 0.52016 0.61295 2.5 -0.5344 Purdue 0.48366 0.39154 Western Mich. 0.51634 0.60846 2.5 -0.4369 Vanderbilt 0.50192 0.39369 Cincinnati 0.49808 0.60631 3.0 0.0527 Georgia 0.52497 0.39445 Michigan St. 0.47503 0.60555 3.5 0.6636 Georgia Tech 0.51443 0.40377 Utah 0.48557 0.59623 3.0 0.3880 Florida St. 0.51613 0.40592 Notre Dame 0.48387 0.59408 3.0 0.4357 Pittsburgh 0.71049 0.59356 SMU 0.28951 0.40644 3.5 6.1046 Oklahoma 0.92962 0.59120 Iowa 0.07038 0.40880 13.5 16.0061 Arkansas 0.68041 0.41395 Kansas St. 0.31959 0.58605 7.5 5.1241 Missouri 0.74809 0.57903 North Carolina 0.25191 0.42097 5.0 7.1255 Northwestern 0.13161 0.42247 Texas A&M 0.86839 0.57753 -10.0 -12.1185
Ohio 0.51860 0.57491 Utah St. 0.48140 0.42509 -1.5 0.4919 Wyoming 0.33401 0.57389 Temple 0.66599 0.42611 -7.0 -4.8803 Houston 0.75050 0.57015 Penn St. 0.24950 0.42985 5.5 7.4471 Virginia Tech 0.35093 0.43981 Michigan 0.64907 0.56019 -2.5 -4.1367 Southern Miss. 0.75674 0.55765 Nevada 0.24326 0.44235 6.0 7.5797 Mississippi St. 0.77469 0.55697 Wake Forest 0.22531 0.44303 6.5 8.0243 Air Force 0.33832 0.44606 Toledo 0.66168 0.55394 -3.0 -4.4458 Auburn 0.60484 0.55038 Virginia 0.39516 0.44962 1.5 2.8636 Baylor 0.83091 0.54955 Washington 0.16909 0.45045 9.0 10.3451 Clemson 0.58306 0.45121 West Va. 0.41694 0.54879 3.5 2.2087 Marshall 0.39794 0.54420 Florida Intl. 0.60206 0.45580 -4.0 -2.7987 Ohio St. 0.45703 0.53279 Florida 0.54297 0.46721 -2.0 -1.1348 South Carolina 0.62414 0.53170 Nebraska 0.37586 0.46830 2.5 3.3398 Oklahoma St. 0.65553 0.53027 Stanford 0.34447 0.46973 3.5 4.3195 TCU 0.82022 0.47043 Louisiana Tech 0.17978 0.52957 10.5 9.7135 Texas 0.62754 0.51789 California 0.37246 0.48211 3.0 3.4798 Boise St. 0.89537 0.48785 Arizona St. 0.10463 0.51215 14.0 13.6684 Northern Ill. 0.46707 0.50512 Arkansas St. 0.53293 0.49488 -1.0 -0.8656 San Diego St. 0.68403 0.50338 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.31597 0.49662 5.0 5.0901
Very interesting line move on the game that was #2 in my list this week. When I posted the numbers on Thursday and even when I updated them on Friday, the line of Seattle/St. Louis was 4.5. The computer average was 9.7. Sometime between then and Sunday morning the line moved all the way to 10. That is a huge move. And of course, interestingly it moves in line with what the computer average said it should have been. The probabilities for that game is based on the line of 4.5, it would obviously be a lot lower at a line of 10.
I’ve updated the numbers after correcting the numbers for one of the systems.
I’ll have to redo these numbers on Friday. I noticed the column for whif is way off, big enough to affect these numbers.
The performance of the computer average of the system predictions continues to soar. 1-0 on the top game and 2-1 in the top 3. That makes it 9-4 for the top game and 25-14 on the top 3. And after two weeks in a row of having the Bears minus Jay Cutler being a top 3 pick, they finally drop down this week. But for the 3rd week in a row the odds makers are giving the Texas a 7 point disadvantage for using a third string qb. So far they have managed to beat the spread the first two times.
home p(win) p(cover) road p(win) p(cover) line lineavg Cincinnati 0.36289 0.26272 Houston 0.63711 0.73728 3.0 -3.7016 Seattle 0.82386 0.69165 St. Louis 0.17614 0.30835 4.5 9.7427 Baltimore 0.97282 0.65129 Indianapolis 0.02718 0.34871 16.5 20.6793 Jacksonville 0.57339 0.64702 Tampa Bay 0.42661 0.35298 -2.0 1.9244 Denver 0.51240 0.38075 Chicago 0.48760 0.61925 3.5 0.3251 Arizona 0.27471 0.39523 San Francisco 0.72529 0.60477 -3.5 -6.2934 Washington 0.16841 0.41966 New England 0.83159 0.58034 -8.0 -10.1410 Green Bay 0.90265 0.57968 Oakland 0.09735 0.42032 11.5 13.6103 San Diego 0.68484 0.42708 Buffalo 0.31516 0.57292 7.0 5.0654 Miami 0.67053 0.56230 Philadelphia 0.32947 0.43770 3.0 4.6529 Dallas 0.68340 0.55528 N.Y. Giants 0.31660 0.44472 3.5 4.9387 Carolina 0.36563 0.47838 Atlanta 0.63437 0.52162 -3.0 -3.5624 Detroit 0.83881 0.51680 Minnesota 0.16119 0.48320 10.0 10.4447 N.Y. Jets 0.83397 0.48736 Kansas City 0.16603 0.51264 10.5 10.1678 Tennessee 0.37411 0.50666 New Orleans 0.62589 0.49334 -3.5 -3.3268 Pittsburgh 0.90949 0.49889 Cleveland 0.09051 0.50111 14.0 13.9709