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Bowl games

The regular season didn’t go so well so not sure I would trust these either.

home                  p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

Alabama              0.57766   0.38654  Ohio St.       0.42234   0.61346   10.0    4.0067
Kansas St.           0.56155   0.58990  UCLA           0.43845   0.41010   -1.5    3.1128
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.43583   0.41763  Nevada         0.56417   0.58237    1.0   -3.3877
South Carolina       0.49100   0.56977  Miami (Fla.)   0.50900   0.43023   -4.0   -0.4505
Auburn               0.57192   0.43662  Wisconsin      0.42808   0.56338    7.0    3.7278
Western Kentucky     0.61703   0.56156  Central Mich.  0.38297   0.43844    3.0    6.1036
Texas A&M            0.49164   0.56053  West Va.       0.50836   0.43947   -3.5   -0.4201
Air Force            0.53581   0.55538  Western Mich.  0.46419   0.44462   -1.0    1.7992
Cincinnati           0.50463   0.44602  Virginia Tech  0.49537   0.55398    3.0    0.2350
USC                  0.58207   0.44645  Nebraska       0.41793   0.55355    7.0    4.2579
Mississippi St.      0.59965   0.45586  Georgia Tech   0.40035   0.54414    7.5    5.2407
Rice                 0.49835   0.45900  Fresno St.     0.50165   0.54100    2.0   -0.0835
LSU                  0.66941   0.54038  Notre Dame     0.33059   0.45962    7.5    9.5736
Oregon               0.64144   0.46071  Florida St.    0.35856   0.53929   10.0    7.9328
Georgia              0.66025   0.53581  Louisville     0.33975   0.46419    7.0    8.8066
Stanford             0.70421   0.46647  Maryland       0.29579   0.53353   14.0   12.2639
North Carolina       0.52664   0.46676  Rutgers        0.47336   0.53324    3.0    1.3337
San Diego St.        0.51761   0.46759  Navy           0.48239   0.53241    2.5    0.8787
Arkansas St.         0.45857   0.52760  Toledo         0.54143   0.47240   -3.5   -2.1034
Houston              0.41709   0.47533  Pittsburgh     0.58291   0.52467   -3.0   -4.2337
Baylor               0.52596   0.47561  Michigan St.   0.47404   0.52439    2.5    1.2893
Arkansas             0.63101   0.52083  Texas          0.36899   0.47917    6.0    7.0596
Boston College       0.56710   0.51735  Penn St.       0.43290   0.48265    2.5    3.3558
Tennessee            0.55491   0.48535  Iowa           0.44509   0.51465    3.5    2.7681
Bowling Green        0.46461   0.51409  South Alabama  0.53539   0.48591   -2.5   -1.7899
Florida              0.64773   0.51386  East Carolina  0.35227   0.48614    7.5    8.2150
TCU                  0.57115   0.51357  Mississippi    0.42885   0.48643    3.0    3.6929
Washington           0.59421   0.48734  Oklahoma St.   0.40579   0.51266    5.5    4.8650
Oklahoma             0.56827   0.50989  Clemson        0.43173   0.49011    3.0    3.4992
Louisiana Tech       0.61612   0.50938  Illinois       0.38388   0.49062    6.0    6.5019
Marshall             0.66703   0.49186  Northern Ill.  0.33297   0.50814   10.0    9.5770
Central Florida      0.54483   0.49550  NC St.         0.45517   0.50450    2.5    2.2733
Utah St.             0.68143   0.50414  UTEP           0.31857   0.49586   10.0   10.2070
Arizona              0.56281   0.50397  Boise St.      0.43719   0.49603    3.0    3.1999
Memphis              0.53636   0.49652  BYU            0.46364   0.50348    2.0    1.8262
Arizona St.          0.64021   0.49869  Duke           0.35979   0.50131    7.5    7.4349
Missouri             0.59650   0.49877  Minnesota      0.40350   0.50123    5.0    4.9390
Colorado St.         0.44165   0.50058  Utah           0.55835   0.49942   -3.0   -2.9706

NFL wek 16

The NFL numbers continue to be consistently pretty good. They top game is now 9-5 on the season and the top 3 are 25-17.
You might want to think twice about any game this week. The top 3 games all involve quarterback issues and a fourth game is off the board due to a QB injury.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Arizona         0.47199    0.66834   Seattle        0.52801    0.33166    -9.5    -1.2460
Chicago         0.37942    0.58149   Detroit        0.62058    0.41851    -9.5    -5.7312
Houston         0.46310    0.57390   Baltimore      0.53690    0.42610    -5.0    -1.6499
New Orleans     0.58167    0.42771   Atlanta        0.41833    0.57229     7.0     3.7217
Dallas          0.48488    0.42968   Indianapolis   0.51512    0.57032     2.5    -0.6712
N.Y. Jets       0.25526    0.44072   New England    0.74474    0.55928   -11.5   -14.2813
Pittsburgh      0.50941    0.44336   Kansas City    0.49059    0.55664     3.0     0.4237
Miami           0.63438    0.47476   Minnesota      0.36562    0.52524     7.5     6.3725
Cincinnati      0.40424    0.47856   Denver         0.59576    0.52144    -3.5    -4.4726
Tampa Bay       0.29495    0.51230   Green Bay      0.70505    0.48770   -11.5   -10.9370
St. Louis       0.62340    0.50721   N.Y. Giants    0.37660    0.49279     5.5     5.8230
Oakland         0.35139    0.49348   Buffalo        0.64861    0.50652    -7.0    -7.2968
Washington      0.32266    0.50258   Philadelphia   0.67734    0.49742    -9.0    -8.8843
Jacksonville    0.57751    0.50240   Tennessee      0.42249    0.49760     3.5     3.6096
San Francisco   0.49980    0.49980   San Diego      0.50020    0.50020     0.0    -0.0088
Carolina        0.54716     .        Cleveland      0.45284     .           .      2.1440

NFL Week 15

The highest game of the week is 8-5, the top 3 games of the week are 23-16.
There is a Thursday night pick on Arizona. And note the #2 game involves Carolina which lost their QB.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

St. Louis      0.51433    0.41659   Arizona         0.48567    0.58341     4.5     0.6470
Carolina       0.63206    0.57184   Tampa Bay       0.36794    0.42816     3.0     6.2665
Buffalo        0.46259    0.56206   Green Bay       0.53741    0.43794    -4.5    -1.6840
Philadelphia   0.62249    0.56089   Dallas          0.37751    0.43911     3.0     5.7492
Chicago        0.49898    0.55427   New Orleans     0.50102    0.44573    -2.5    -0.0457
Baltimore      0.77102    0.54519   Jacksonville    0.22898    0.45481    14.5    16.5749
Detroit        0.65810    0.45809   Minnesota       0.34190    0.54191     9.5     7.6345
Kansas City    0.73241    0.52934   Oakland         0.26759    0.47066    11.5    12.8242
San Diego      0.43168    0.52063   Denver          0.56832    0.47937    -4.0    -3.0823
New England    0.68742    0.51337   Miami           0.31258    0.48663     9.0     9.6045
Atlanta        0.48799    0.51006   Pittsburgh      0.51201    0.48994    -1.0    -0.5442
Indianapolis   0.64790    0.49034   Houston         0.35210    0.50966     7.5     7.0718
Tennessee      0.48262    0.50459   N.Y. Jets       0.51738    0.49541    -1.0    -0.7913
Cleveland      0.51809    0.49573   Cincinnati      0.48191    0.50427     1.0     0.8094
Seattle        0.70228    0.50289   San Francisco   0.29772    0.49711    10.5    10.6310
N.Y. Giants    0.64496    0.49993   Washington      0.35504    0.50007     7.0     6.9968

NFL Week 14

Top game is 7-5, top 3 are 21-15


home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Oakland        0.37845    0.57665   San Francisco   0.62155    0.42335    -9.5    -5.8952
Arizona        0.55121    0.55121   Kansas City     0.44879    0.44879     0.0     2.2998
Chicago        0.46845    0.54658   Dallas          0.53155    0.45342    -3.5    -1.4101
New Orleans    0.68313    0.45988   Carolina        0.31687    0.54012    11.0     9.2019
Cincinnati     0.60234    0.53894   Pittsburgh      0.39766    0.46106     3.0     4.7555
Miami          0.58940    0.53619   Baltimore       0.41060    0.46381     2.5     4.1380
Philadelphia   0.53307    0.53307   Seattle         0.46693    0.46693     0.0     1.4863
Detroit        0.72103    0.53228   Tampa Bay       0.27897    0.46772    10.5    11.9619
Denver         0.67359    0.47063   Buffalo         0.32641    0.52937    10.0     8.6767
Tennessee      0.47190    0.47190   N.Y. Giants     0.52810    0.52810     0.0    -1.2496
San Diego      0.39963    0.47395   New England     0.60037    0.52605    -3.5    -4.6756
Washington     0.42177    0.47547   St. Louis       0.57823    0.52453    -2.5    -3.6119
Green Bay      0.72424    0.48133   Atlanta         0.27576    0.51867    13.0    12.1599
Cleveland      0.40708    0.48277   Indianapolis    0.59292    0.51723    -3.5    -4.2701
Jacksonville   0.36887    0.48421   Houston         0.63113    0.51579    -5.5    -6.2051
Minnesota      0.64084    0.49405   N.Y. Jets       0.35916    0.50595     7.0     6.7341

NCAA Week 15

The top game is 5-8 ATS, the top 5 only 21-43.

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road              p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

  Ohio St.       0.52501   0.61047  Wisconsin        0.47499   0.38953   -4.5    1.2524
  Oregon         0.68198   0.40408  Arizona          0.31802   0.59592   15.0   10.1143
  Alabama        0.67270   0.40536  Missouri         0.32730   0.59464   14.5    9.6141
  East Carolina  0.56920   0.43028  Central Florida  0.43080   0.56972    7.0    3.4866
  Georgia Tech   0.46408   0.55027  Florida St.      0.53592   0.44973   -4.5   -1.8708
  Boise St.      0.77121   0.45507  Fresno St.       0.22879   0.54493   21.0   18.6780
  Baylor         0.61336   0.45634  Kansas St.       0.38664   0.54366    8.0    5.8349
  Tulane         0.40110   0.45861  Temple           0.59890   0.54139   -3.0   -5.0615
  Marshall       0.66461   0.46177  Louisiana Tech   0.33539   0.53823   11.0    9.0744
  TCU            0.84598   0.46627  Iowa St.         0.15402   0.53373   34.0   32.2000
  Bowling Green  0.35681   0.47615  Northern Ill.    0.64319   0.52385   -6.5   -7.6963
  Oklahoma       0.77219   0.47842  Oklahoma St.     0.22781   0.52158   20.0   18.8849
  Connecticut    0.69634   0.48823  SMU              0.30366   0.51177   12.0   11.4050
  Cincinnati     0.63352   0.50205  Houston          0.36648   0.49795    7.0    7.1028

NFL tip

A few years ago I started a new rating system. The idea was to simply take the least squares regression model and add in a term for turnovers. The thought is the line is an accurate predictor of the outcome, except that it has a (rather large actually) random error. If turnovers can explain some of that random error then theoretically this least squares adjusted for turnovers should do well against the spread. The results have been good so far, 58% ATS last year, 58% ATS this year.
But narrowing it down a bit, Look at games where the difference between this systems predictions and the line is between 1.5 and 4.5 it has been accurate 69% of the time.
Something to watch going forward.

NCAA week 14

The NCAA picks continue to lose. They have gone from bad to interesting.
The top game is 5-7, the top 5 are 19-40-1. So the NFL games are hitting over 60% while the NCAA games are only 32%.
This is early and plenty of games do not have a line yet.

  home               p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Massachusetts     0.55665  0.59452 Buffalo             0.44335  0.40548  -2.0   2.8524
  Marshall          0.78073  0.42787 Western Kentucky    0.21927  0.57213  23.5  19.7506
  Temple            0.42658  0.56477 Cincinnati          0.57342  0.43523  -7.0  -3.7263
  Memphis           0.81160  0.56001 Connecticut         0.18840  0.43999  21.0  24.0896
  Eastern Mich.     0.21443  0.55870 Toledo              0.78557  0.44130 -23.0 -20.0193
  Southern Miss.    0.36953  0.44262 UAB                 0.63047  0.55738  -4.0  -6.8905
  South Alabama     0.37485  0.55505 Navy                0.62515  0.44495  -9.5  -6.6845
  Fresno St.        0.65131  0.44545 Hawaii              0.34869  0.55455  11.0   8.2322
  Northwestern      0.68859  0.55399 Illinois            0.31141  0.44601   8.0  10.7296
  Washington St.    0.38995  0.44655 Washington          0.61005  0.55345  -3.0  -5.6666
  Kansas St.        0.82284  0.44931 Kansas              0.17716  0.55069  28.5  25.9109
  California        0.53861  0.44991 BYU                 0.46139  0.55009   4.5   1.9549
  Wisconsin         0.70550  0.45034 Minnesota           0.29450  0.54966  14.5  11.9953
  Texas-San Antonio 0.54722  0.45040 North Texas         0.45278  0.54960   5.0   2.4375
  Mississippi       0.49992  0.54928 Mississippi St.     0.50008  0.45072  -2.5  -0.0040
  Virginia Tech     0.52946  0.54917 Virginia            0.47054  0.45083  -1.0   1.4759
  Florida St.       0.67323  0.54863 Florida             0.32677  0.45137   7.5  10.0591
  Boise St.         0.62668  0.45159 Utah St.            0.37332  0.54841   9.0   6.5956
  UCLA              0.63783  0.54777 Stanford            0.36217  0.45223   5.0   7.4308
  New Mexico        0.54426  0.45361 Wyoming             0.45574  0.54639   4.5   2.1966
  UNLV              0.29705  0.45444 Nevada              0.70295  0.54556  -9.5 -11.7948
  Western Mich.     0.60818  0.45604 Northern Ill.       0.39182  0.54396   8.0   5.7426
  Miami (Ohio)      0.46837  0.53888 Ohio                0.53163  0.46112  -3.5  -1.5685
  Louisville        0.72971  0.53830 Kentucky            0.27029  0.46170  12.5  14.4913
  North Carolina    0.65367  0.53797 NC St.              0.34633  0.46203   6.5   8.4268
  Bowling Green     0.64968  0.46336 Ball St.            0.35032  0.53664  10.0   8.1466
  Georgia Southern  0.71177  0.46343 Louisiana-Monroe    0.28823  0.53657  14.5  12.6409
  Colorado          0.31005  0.46413 Utah                0.68995  0.53587  -9.0 -10.7989
  Texas A&M         0.47387  0.53398 LSU                 0.52613  0.46602  -3.0  -1.3029
  Oregon St.        0.20647  0.46695 Oregon              0.79353  0.53305 -19.5 -21.1727
  Iowa              0.46729  0.46729 Nebraska            0.53271  0.53271   0.0  -1.6290
  Tulsa             0.24832  0.52976 East Carolina       0.75168  0.47024 -17.5 -16.0140
  Georgia           0.69306  0.47311 Georgia Tech        0.30694  0.52689  12.5  11.1401
  Indiana           0.57458  0.52617 Purdue              0.42542  0.47383   2.5   3.8183
  SMU               0.20951  0.52060 Houston             0.79049  0.47940 -22.0 -20.9501
  Vanderbilt        0.25221  0.51961 Tennessee           0.74779  0.48039 -17.0 -15.9993
  Troy St.          0.32674  0.51857 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.67326  0.48143 -10.5  -9.5761
  Texas             0.35392  0.48166 TCU                 0.64608  0.51834  -7.0  -7.9252
  Arkansas St.      0.79585  0.48172 New Mexico St.      0.20415  0.51828  22.5  21.5740
  Georgia St.       0.28760  0.51814 Texas St.           0.71240  0.48186 -13.5 -12.5885
  Appalachian St.   0.76138  0.51678 Idaho               0.23862  0.48322  17.0  17.8783
  Duke              0.77441  0.48420 Wake Forest         0.22559  0.51580  19.5  18.7034
  South Florida     0.30274  0.51435 Central Florida     0.69726  0.48565 -12.0 -11.2864
  Air Force         0.37739  0.51287 Colorado St.        0.62261  0.48713  -7.0  -6.3647
  UTEP              0.56713  0.48745 Middle Tenn.        0.43287  0.51255   4.0   3.3776
  Kent              0.44134  0.51088 Akron               0.55866  0.48912  -3.5  -2.9575
  Maryland          0.65692  0.51057 Rutgers             0.34308  0.48943   8.0   8.5272
  USC               0.62447  0.49164 Notre Dame          0.37553  0.50836   7.0   6.5805
  Texas Tech        0.18132  0.49213 Baylor              0.81868  0.50787 -25.0 -25.4022
  Alabama           0.67640  0.50634 Auburn              0.32360  0.49366   9.5   9.8158
  Louisiana Tech    0.63339  0.50428 Rice                0.36661  0.49572   7.0   7.2181
  Boston College    0.69176  0.49721 Syracuse            0.30824  0.50279  11.0  10.8615
  Ohio St.          0.79241  0.49766 Michigan            0.20759  0.50234  21.0  20.8828
  Penn St.          0.28167  0.50044 Michigan St.        0.71833  0.49956 -13.0 -12.9783
  Florida Atlantic  0.55854  0.49977 Old Dominion        0.44146  0.50023   3.0   2.9884
  Arizona           0.56229   .      Arizona St.         0.43771   .         .    3.1547
Clemson         0.58926       .      South Carolina   0.41074       .        .      4.6889
Iowa St.        0.29011       .      West Va.         0.70989       .        .    -12.7140
Miami (Fla.)    0.67891       .      Pittsburgh       0.32109       .        .     10.0933
Missouri        0.51100       .      Arkansas         0.48900       .        .      0.5610
San Diego St.   0.69468       .      San Jose St.     0.30532       .        .     11.346

NFL Week 13

The NFL picks continue to win. Top pick is 7-4, top 3 is 20-13.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Green Bay       0.48315    0.41861   New England    0.51685    0.58139     3.0    -0.7627
Tampa Bay       0.36110    0.43865   Cincinnati     0.63890    0.56135    -4.0    -6.8782
Buffalo         0.61051    0.55834   Cleveland      0.38949    0.44166     2.5     5.1262
Indianapolis    0.73257    0.55714   Washington     0.26743    0.44286    10.5    13.1661
Atlanta         0.39601    0.44751   Arizona        0.60399    0.55249    -2.5    -4.9129
Houston         0.68189    0.54738   Tennessee      0.31811    0.45262     7.0     9.1288
Dallas          0.53057    0.46322   Philadelphia   0.46943    0.53678     3.0     1.3608
Baltimore       0.61390    0.46329   San Diego      0.38610    0.53671     7.0     5.3443
Minnesota       0.58186    0.52845   Carolina       0.41814    0.47155     2.5     3.7923
N.Y. Jets       0.33708    0.47580   Miami          0.66292    0.52420    -7.0    -8.0981
Detroit         0.63803    0.48504   Chicago        0.36197    0.51496     7.5     6.8084
San Francisco   0.48611    0.48611   Seattle        0.51389    0.51389     0.0    -0.6210
Kansas City     0.51384    0.51384   Denver         0.48616    0.48616     0.0     0.6541
Pittsburgh      0.59368    0.50640   New Orleans    0.40632    0.49360     4.0     4.2841
Jacksonville    0.45068    0.50616   N.Y. Giants    0.54932    0.49384    -2.5    -2.2242
St. Louis       0.64594    0.50301   Oakland        0.35406    0.49699     7.0     7.1368

NFL Week 12

As opposed the NCAA numbers which suck, the NFL top 3 are hitting 60%.
Top game is 7-3, and top 3 are 18-12.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Seattle         0.54421    0.39464   Arizona        0.45579    0.60536     7.0     2.0242
Buffalo         0.65643    0.59990   N.Y. Jets      0.34357    0.40010     3.0     7.6221
New Orleans     0.49947    0.43348   Baltimore      0.50053    0.56652     3.0    -0.0239
Denver          0.61126    0.43890   Miami          0.38874    0.56110     8.0     5.2179
New England     0.69549    0.55760   Detroit        0.30451    0.44240     7.5    10.1283
Minnesota       0.35001    0.55469   Green Bay      0.64999    0.44531   -10.0    -7.4594
Atlanta         0.51975    0.45339   Cleveland      0.48025    0.54661     3.0     0.8893
Oakland         0.29487    0.45746   Kansas City    0.70513    0.54254    -9.0   -10.9613
Houston         0.55883    0.53751   Cincinnati     0.44117    0.46249     1.0     2.7270
San Diego       0.63654    0.53411   St. Louis      0.36346    0.46589     5.0     6.5379
Indianapolis    0.76750    0.52543   Jacksonville   0.23250    0.47457    15.0    16.1589
San Francisco   0.70015    0.51026   Washington     0.29985    0.48974    10.0    10.4639
N.Y. Giants     0.42557    0.49097   Dallas         0.57443    0.50903    -3.0    -3.4058
Philadelphia    0.73181    0.50509   Tennessee      0.26819    0.49491    12.5    12.7283
Chicago         0.62903    0.50322   Tampa Bay      0.37097    0.49678     6.0     6.1448

NCAA Week 13

These ncaa games gave an 0-5 for the top 5 last week. It it interesting just how bad they have been, the top game is 5-6, but the top 5 are 18-36 on the season, only 33%.
So in otherwords, you might want to look at picking opposite these top games.

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road               p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  San Diego St.       0.48257  0.37183 Air Force         0.51743  0.62817   6.0  -0.8864
  Duke                0.70224  0.62813 North Carolina    0.29776  0.37187   5.0  11.8333
  Akron               0.51493  0.37464 Massachusetts     0.48507  0.62536   7.5   0.7613
  Nevada              0.71188  0.60736 Fresno St.        0.28812  0.39264   7.0  12.6499
  Ohio St.            0.83665  0.39704 Indiana           0.16335  0.60296  35.0  29.4388
  West Va.            0.45311  0.40512 Kansas St.        0.54689  0.59488   2.5  -2.3357
  Baylor              0.80990  0.42255 Oklahoma St.      0.19010  0.57745  28.5  24.3838
  Connecticut         0.28374  0.43189 Cincinnati        0.71626  0.56811  -9.5 -12.9963
  East Carolina       0.74640  0.43260 Tulane            0.25360  0.56740  19.0  15.5754
  Old Dominion        0.26434  0.43353 Louisiana Tech    0.73566  0.56647 -11.5 -14.9726
  South Carolina      0.78341  0.43747 South Alabama     0.21659  0.56253  24.5  21.1011
  Purdue              0.45743  0.43793 Northwestern      0.54257  0.56207   1.0  -2.1366
  UAB                 0.24086  0.55416 Marshall          0.75914  0.44584 -20.0 -17.2085
  Colorado St.        0.77354  0.44624 New Mexico        0.22646  0.55376  21.5  18.7448
  Ohio                0.39927  0.44683 Northern Ill.     0.60073  0.55317  -2.5  -5.1536
  Tennessee           0.51836  0.44872 Missouri          0.48164  0.55128   3.5   0.9175
  Central Mich.       0.47168  0.45173 Western Mich.     0.52832  0.54827   1.0  -1.4027
  Michigan            0.55669  0.45663 Maryland          0.44331  0.54337   5.0   2.8382
  Pittsburgh          0.60638  0.45936 Syracuse          0.39362  0.54064   7.5   5.4757
  Oregon              0.83977  0.45966 Colorado          0.16023  0.54034  32.5  30.3692
  Utah St.            0.74831  0.53899 San Jose St.      0.25169  0.46101  14.0  15.9895
  Arkansas            0.39481  0.46107 Mississippi       0.60519  0.53893  -3.5  -5.4542
  Memphis             0.79345  0.53659 South Florida     0.20655  0.46341  19.5  21.3713
  Arizona St.         0.75701  0.53557 Washington St.    0.24299  0.46443  15.0  16.8044
  Nebraska            0.66079  0.46491 Minnesota         0.33921  0.53509  10.5   8.7486
  Notre Dame          0.52509  0.46541 Louisville        0.47491  0.53459   3.0   1.2598
  California          0.42720  0.53407 Stanford          0.57280  0.46593  -5.5  -3.7631
  Clemson             0.86264  0.46872 Georgia St.       0.13736  0.53128  40.5  38.7415
  North Texas         0.51912  0.46997 Florida Intl.     0.48088  0.53003   2.5   0.9715
  Florida St.         0.76935  0.52889 Boston College    0.23065  0.47111  17.0  18.4896
  Michigan St.        0.78817  0.47274 Rutgers           0.21183  0.52726  22.0  20.6109
  Iowa St.            0.54562  0.52584 Texas Tech        0.45438  0.47416   1.0   2.2922
  Central Florida     0.82914  0.47570 SMU               0.17086  0.52430  28.5  27.2594
  Washington          0.64513  0.52417 Oregon St.        0.35487  0.47583   6.5   7.6937
  Wake Forest         0.28053  0.52377 Virginia Tech     0.71947  0.47623 -15.0 -13.7522
  Houston             0.78434  0.47633 Tulsa             0.21566  0.52367  21.0  19.8125
  Virginia            0.37295  0.47660 Miami (Fla.)      0.62705  0.52340  -5.5  -6.6632
  Western Kentucky    0.64688  0.47812 Texas-San Antonio 0.35312  0.52188   9.0   7.9055
  UCLA                0.56941  0.47984 USC               0.43059  0.52016   4.5   3.4987
  Utah                0.57029  0.48043 Arizona           0.42971  0.51957   4.5   3.5315
  Ball St.            0.76471  0.51535 Eastern Mich.     0.23529  0.48465  17.0  17.7824
  Illinois            0.36385  0.48608 Penn St.          0.63615  0.51392  -6.5  -7.1900
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.67069  0.49143 Appalachian St.   0.32931  0.50857  10.0   9.5667
  Wyoming             0.29939  0.50781 Boise St.         0.70061  0.49219 -12.0 -11.6093
  Middle Tenn.        0.63820  0.50753 Florida Atlantic  0.36180  0.49247   7.0   7.3766
  Oklahoma            0.81220  0.49301 Kansas            0.18780  0.50699  25.0  24.6378
  Hawaii              0.68106  0.49481 UNLV              0.31894  0.50519  10.5  10.2386
  New Mexico St.      0.36406  0.49500 Louisiana-Monroe  0.63594  0.50500  -7.0  -7.2501
  Rice                0.62819  0.49503 UTEP              0.37181  0.50497   7.0   6.7523
  Buffalo             0.63634  0.50468 Kent              0.36366  0.49532   7.0   7.2331
  Texas St.           0.36321  0.49540 Arkansas St.      0.63679  0.50460  -7.0  -7.2278
  Mississippi St.     0.84342  0.50366 Vanderbilt        0.15658  0.49634  30.5  30.6892
  Iowa                0.31867  0.49685 Wisconsin         0.68133  0.50315 -10.0 -10.1571
  Buffalo             0.63634   .      Kent              0.36366   .         .    7.2331
  Toledo              0.61301   .      Bowling Green     0.38699   .         .    5.9285