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NFL Week 12

As opposed the NCAA numbers which suck, the NFL top 3 are hitting 60%.
Top game is 7-3, and top 3 are 18-12.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Seattle         0.54421    0.39464   Arizona        0.45579    0.60536     7.0     2.0242
Buffalo         0.65643    0.59990   N.Y. Jets      0.34357    0.40010     3.0     7.6221
New Orleans     0.49947    0.43348   Baltimore      0.50053    0.56652     3.0    -0.0239
Denver          0.61126    0.43890   Miami          0.38874    0.56110     8.0     5.2179
New England     0.69549    0.55760   Detroit        0.30451    0.44240     7.5    10.1283
Minnesota       0.35001    0.55469   Green Bay      0.64999    0.44531   -10.0    -7.4594
Atlanta         0.51975    0.45339   Cleveland      0.48025    0.54661     3.0     0.8893
Oakland         0.29487    0.45746   Kansas City    0.70513    0.54254    -9.0   -10.9613
Houston         0.55883    0.53751   Cincinnati     0.44117    0.46249     1.0     2.7270
San Diego       0.63654    0.53411   St. Louis      0.36346    0.46589     5.0     6.5379
Indianapolis    0.76750    0.52543   Jacksonville   0.23250    0.47457    15.0    16.1589
San Francisco   0.70015    0.51026   Washington     0.29985    0.48974    10.0    10.4639
N.Y. Giants     0.42557    0.49097   Dallas         0.57443    0.50903    -3.0    -3.4058
Philadelphia    0.73181    0.50509   Tennessee      0.26819    0.49491    12.5    12.7283
Chicago         0.62903    0.50322   Tampa Bay      0.37097    0.49678     6.0     6.1448

NCAA Week 13

These ncaa games gave an 0-5 for the top 5 last week. It it interesting just how bad they have been, the top game is 5-6, but the top 5 are 18-36 on the season, only 33%.
So in otherwords, you might want to look at picking opposite these top games.

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road               p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  San Diego St.       0.48257  0.37183 Air Force         0.51743  0.62817   6.0  -0.8864
  Duke                0.70224  0.62813 North Carolina    0.29776  0.37187   5.0  11.8333
  Akron               0.51493  0.37464 Massachusetts     0.48507  0.62536   7.5   0.7613
  Nevada              0.71188  0.60736 Fresno St.        0.28812  0.39264   7.0  12.6499
  Ohio St.            0.83665  0.39704 Indiana           0.16335  0.60296  35.0  29.4388
  West Va.            0.45311  0.40512 Kansas St.        0.54689  0.59488   2.5  -2.3357
  Baylor              0.80990  0.42255 Oklahoma St.      0.19010  0.57745  28.5  24.3838
  Connecticut         0.28374  0.43189 Cincinnati        0.71626  0.56811  -9.5 -12.9963
  East Carolina       0.74640  0.43260 Tulane            0.25360  0.56740  19.0  15.5754
  Old Dominion        0.26434  0.43353 Louisiana Tech    0.73566  0.56647 -11.5 -14.9726
  South Carolina      0.78341  0.43747 South Alabama     0.21659  0.56253  24.5  21.1011
  Purdue              0.45743  0.43793 Northwestern      0.54257  0.56207   1.0  -2.1366
  UAB                 0.24086  0.55416 Marshall          0.75914  0.44584 -20.0 -17.2085
  Colorado St.        0.77354  0.44624 New Mexico        0.22646  0.55376  21.5  18.7448
  Ohio                0.39927  0.44683 Northern Ill.     0.60073  0.55317  -2.5  -5.1536
  Tennessee           0.51836  0.44872 Missouri          0.48164  0.55128   3.5   0.9175
  Central Mich.       0.47168  0.45173 Western Mich.     0.52832  0.54827   1.0  -1.4027
  Michigan            0.55669  0.45663 Maryland          0.44331  0.54337   5.0   2.8382
  Pittsburgh          0.60638  0.45936 Syracuse          0.39362  0.54064   7.5   5.4757
  Oregon              0.83977  0.45966 Colorado          0.16023  0.54034  32.5  30.3692
  Utah St.            0.74831  0.53899 San Jose St.      0.25169  0.46101  14.0  15.9895
  Arkansas            0.39481  0.46107 Mississippi       0.60519  0.53893  -3.5  -5.4542
  Memphis             0.79345  0.53659 South Florida     0.20655  0.46341  19.5  21.3713
  Arizona St.         0.75701  0.53557 Washington St.    0.24299  0.46443  15.0  16.8044
  Nebraska            0.66079  0.46491 Minnesota         0.33921  0.53509  10.5   8.7486
  Notre Dame          0.52509  0.46541 Louisville        0.47491  0.53459   3.0   1.2598
  California          0.42720  0.53407 Stanford          0.57280  0.46593  -5.5  -3.7631
  Clemson             0.86264  0.46872 Georgia St.       0.13736  0.53128  40.5  38.7415
  North Texas         0.51912  0.46997 Florida Intl.     0.48088  0.53003   2.5   0.9715
  Florida St.         0.76935  0.52889 Boston College    0.23065  0.47111  17.0  18.4896
  Michigan St.        0.78817  0.47274 Rutgers           0.21183  0.52726  22.0  20.6109
  Iowa St.            0.54562  0.52584 Texas Tech        0.45438  0.47416   1.0   2.2922
  Central Florida     0.82914  0.47570 SMU               0.17086  0.52430  28.5  27.2594
  Washington          0.64513  0.52417 Oregon St.        0.35487  0.47583   6.5   7.6937
  Wake Forest         0.28053  0.52377 Virginia Tech     0.71947  0.47623 -15.0 -13.7522
  Houston             0.78434  0.47633 Tulsa             0.21566  0.52367  21.0  19.8125
  Virginia            0.37295  0.47660 Miami (Fla.)      0.62705  0.52340  -5.5  -6.6632
  Western Kentucky    0.64688  0.47812 Texas-San Antonio 0.35312  0.52188   9.0   7.9055
  UCLA                0.56941  0.47984 USC               0.43059  0.52016   4.5   3.4987
  Utah                0.57029  0.48043 Arizona           0.42971  0.51957   4.5   3.5315
  Ball St.            0.76471  0.51535 Eastern Mich.     0.23529  0.48465  17.0  17.7824
  Illinois            0.36385  0.48608 Penn St.          0.63615  0.51392  -6.5  -7.1900
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.67069  0.49143 Appalachian St.   0.32931  0.50857  10.0   9.5667
  Wyoming             0.29939  0.50781 Boise St.         0.70061  0.49219 -12.0 -11.6093
  Middle Tenn.        0.63820  0.50753 Florida Atlantic  0.36180  0.49247   7.0   7.3766
  Oklahoma            0.81220  0.49301 Kansas            0.18780  0.50699  25.0  24.6378
  Hawaii              0.68106  0.49481 UNLV              0.31894  0.50519  10.5  10.2386
  New Mexico St.      0.36406  0.49500 Louisiana-Monroe  0.63594  0.50500  -7.0  -7.2501
  Rice                0.62819  0.49503 UTEP              0.37181  0.50497   7.0   6.7523
  Buffalo             0.63634  0.50468 Kent              0.36366  0.49532   7.0   7.2331
  Texas St.           0.36321  0.49540 Arkansas St.      0.63679  0.50460  -7.0  -7.2278
  Mississippi St.     0.84342  0.50366 Vanderbilt        0.15658  0.49634  30.5  30.6892
  Iowa                0.31867  0.49685 Wisconsin         0.68133  0.50315 -10.0 -10.1571
  Buffalo             0.63634   .      Kent              0.36366   .         .    7.2331
  Toledo              0.61301   .      Bowling Green     0.38699   .         .    5.9285

NFL week 11

On the bright side after a 3-0 week the nfl picks are now almost 60%.
Top game is 6-3, top 3 are 16-11.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Arizona        0.62094    0.60129   Detroit         0.37906    0.39871     1.0     5.7090
Green Bay      0.55054    0.39880   Philadelphia    0.44946    0.60120     7.0     2.2911
Kansas City    0.59563    0.59563   Seattle         0.40437    0.40437     0.0     4.5142
Tennessee      0.40523    0.55682   Pittsburgh      0.59477    0.44318    -7.0    -4.4079
Miami          0.63585    0.55410   Buffalo         0.36415    0.44590     4.0     6.4247
Carolina       0.54812    0.54812   Atlanta         0.45188    0.45188     0.0     2.1756
Chicago        0.51876    0.45231   Minnesota       0.48124    0.54769     3.0     0.8431
N.Y. Giants    0.44797    0.53701   San Francisco   0.55203    0.46299    -4.0    -2.3418
San Diego      0.73050    0.52751   Oakland         0.26950    0.47249    11.5    12.7492
New Orleans    0.63784    0.47381   Cincinnati      0.36216    0.52619     8.0     6.7888
Indianapolis   0.54016    0.47427   New England     0.45984    0.52573     3.0     1.8307
Cleveland      0.58622    0.52088   Houston         0.41378    0.47912     3.0     3.9298
Washington     0.67766    0.51102   Tampa Bay       0.32234    0.48898     8.5     8.9993
St. Louis      0.30707    0.49766   Denver          0.69293    0.50234   -10.0   -10.1073

NCAA Week 12

The college picks continue to disappoint. The top pick is 5-5 while the top 5 games of the week are 18-31-1.

  home               p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  NC St.            0.68027  0.37145 Wake Forest         0.31973  0.62855  17.0  10.1668
  Oregon St.        0.26055  0.38590 Arizona St.         0.73945  0.61410  -9.0 -15.0078
  Arkansas          0.43315  0.39588 LSU                 0.56685  0.60412   2.0  -3.3791
  Penn St.          0.63125  0.40975 Temple              0.36875  0.59025  11.5   6.9022
  Duke              0.67831  0.58742 Virginia Tech       0.32169  0.41258   5.5   9.9858
  Georgia Tech      0.52826  0.58627 Clemson             0.47174  0.41373  -3.0   1.4140
  Cincinnati        0.53085  0.57904 East Carolina       0.46915  0.42096  -2.5   1.5547
  Massachusetts     0.48942  0.42138 Ball St.            0.51058  0.57862   3.5  -0.5317
  Stanford          0.57323  0.42533 Utah                0.42677  0.57467   7.5   3.7120
  Air Force         0.47476  0.42617 Nevada              0.52524  0.57383   2.5  -1.2673
  Wisconsin         0.56594  0.42861 Nebraska            0.43406  0.57139   7.0   3.3566
  San Jose St.      0.63504  0.43370 Hawaii              0.36496  0.56630  10.5   7.1530
  Northern Ill.     0.53722  0.43826 Toledo              0.46278  0.56174   5.0   1.8712
  Illinois          0.38393  0.44919 Iowa                0.61607  0.55081  -3.5  -6.0528
  Navy              0.50816  0.45091 Georgia Southern    0.49184  0.54909   3.0   0.4246
  Marshall          0.77684  0.45371 Rice                0.22316  0.54629  21.5  19.1342
  Buffalo           0.45586  0.54529 Akron               0.54414  0.45471  -4.5  -2.2208
  SMU               0.33709  0.53830 South Florida       0.66291  0.46170 -11.0  -9.0516
  Florida Intl.     0.43865  0.53830 Middle Tenn.        0.56135  0.46170  -5.0  -3.0873
  Maryland          0.31807  0.53506 Michigan St.        0.68193  0.46494 -12.0 -10.2395
  Georgia           0.51517  0.46520 Auburn              0.48483  0.53480   2.5   0.7574
  Minnesota         0.31496  0.53213 Ohio St.            0.68504  0.46787 -12.0 -10.3974
  Notre Dame        0.75214  0.47174 Northwestern        0.24786  0.52826  17.5  16.0872
  Arkansas St.      0.74730  0.52674 Appalachian St.     0.25270  0.47326  14.5  15.8580
  Western Kentucky  0.70044  0.52665 Army                0.29956  0.47335  10.5  11.8666
  Tennessee         0.67299  0.52569 Kentucky            0.32701  0.47431   8.5   9.8138
  Western Mich.     0.82045  0.47620 Eastern Mich.       0.17955  0.52380  27.0  25.7785
  Rutgers           0.62116  0.47640 Indiana             0.37884  0.52360   7.5   6.3258
  Central Mich.     0.73606  0.47681 Miami (Ohio)        0.26394  0.52319  16.0  14.8192
  Kansas            0.17069  0.52253 TCU                 0.82931  0.47747 -28.5 -27.3478
  Alabama           0.63665  0.47912 Mississippi St.     0.36335  0.52088   8.5   7.4333
  Boise St.         0.73940  0.52001 San Diego St.       0.26060  0.47999  14.0  15.0102
  Central Florida   0.78486  0.48064 Tulsa               0.21514  0.51936  21.0  20.0224
  Texas A&M         0.59449  0.51704 Missouri            0.40551  0.48296   4.0   4.8497
  Louisiana-Monroe  0.38859  0.51346 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.61141  0.48654  -6.5  -5.8249
  UTEP              0.63121  0.51255 North Texas         0.36879  0.48745   6.5   7.1446
  Texas-San Antonio 0.64545  0.50929 Southern Miss.      0.35455  0.49071   7.5   7.9737
  Idaho             0.59669  0.49180 Troy St.            0.40331  0.50820   5.5   5.0824
  North Carolina    0.55676  0.50782 Pittsburgh          0.44324  0.49218   2.5   2.8944
  Tulane            0.31051  0.49320 Memphis             0.68949  0.50680 -10.5 -10.8419
  Miami (Fla.)      0.44957  0.50675 Florida St.         0.55043  0.49325  -3.0  -2.6484
  Oklahoma St.      0.45643  0.50598 Texas               0.54357  0.49402  -2.5  -2.2000
  Utah St.          0.77477  0.50587 New Mexico          0.22523  0.49413  18.5  18.7965
  USC               0.73447  0.49422 California          0.26553  0.50578  15.0  14.7056
  BYU               0.81081  0.50571 UNLV                0.18919  0.49429  24.0  24.2944
  Arizona           0.66821  0.50427 Washington          0.33179  0.49573   9.0   9.2117
  Florida           0.63014  0.50196 South Carolina      0.36986  0.49804   7.0   7.1009
  South Alabama     0.58053  0.50135 Texas St.           0.41947  0.49865   4.0   4.0666
  Bowling Green     0.73216  0.49986 Kent                0.26784  0.50014  14.5  14.4927
  Texas Tech        0.23334   .      Oklahoma            0.76666   .         .  -18.5643

NFL Week 10

Last week the top game was correct but the next two were wrong.
Season totals are 5-3 on top game and 13-11 on top 3.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Philadelphia   0.70575    0.58709   Carolina        0.29425    0.41291     7.0    11.1456
Jacksonville   0.30769    0.42229   Dallas          0.69231    0.57771    -6.5   -10.1704
Arizona        0.70594    0.56275   St. Louis       0.29406    0.43725     8.0    10.8752
Buffalo        0.45002    0.45002   Kansas City     0.54998    0.54998     0.0    -2.2535
Seattle        0.66894    0.45341   N.Y. Giants     0.33106    0.54659    10.5     8.3922
Detroit        0.51429    0.45906   Miami           0.48571    0.54094     2.5     0.6445
Baltimore      0.72392    0.53721   Tennessee       0.27608    0.46279    10.5    12.1870
Tampa Bay      0.46977    0.46977   Atlanta         0.53023    0.53023     0.0    -1.3716
Cincinnati     0.62102    0.47182   Cleveland       0.37898    0.52818     7.0     5.7278
N.Y. Jets      0.38671    0.48003   Pittsburgh      0.61329    0.51997    -4.5    -5.4149
New Orleans    0.58812    0.48078   San Francisco   0.41188    0.51922     5.0     4.1228
Green Bay      0.67704    0.51832   Chicago         0.32296    0.48168     8.0     8.8173
Oakland        0.26680    0.48684   Denver          0.73320    0.51316   -12.5   -13.1026

NCAA Week 11

Signs of life? Last week was only the first or second winning week of the season.
Top game is 4-5, and top 5 are 17-28 for the season.

  home              p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Old Dominion     0.49507  0.40016 Florida Intl.       0.50493  0.59984   5.0  -0.2506
  Western Kentucky 0.54630  0.40339 UTEP                0.45370  0.59661   7.5   2.3900
  Old Dominion     0.49923  0.40409 Florida Intl.       0.50077  0.59591   5.0  -0.0391
  Ball St.         0.53481  0.59072 Northern Ill.       0.46519  0.40928  -3.0   1.7984
  LSU              0.44328  0.58131 Alabama             0.55672  0.41869  -7.0  -2.8571
  Akron            0.54533  0.42033 Bowling Green       0.45467  0.57967   6.5   2.3356
  Temple           0.42866  0.57748 Memphis             0.57134  0.42252  -7.5  -3.5895
  NC St.           0.36038  0.42255 Georgia Tech        0.63962  0.57745  -3.5  -7.4334
  Indiana          0.43217  0.57054 Penn St.            0.56783  0.42946  -7.0  -3.4292
  Oregon St.       0.59031  0.43449 Washington St.      0.40969  0.56551   8.0   4.6621
  San Diego St.    0.76047  0.43800 Idaho               0.23953  0.56200  20.5  17.3040
  UNLV             0.34513  0.43812 Air Force           0.65487  0.56188  -5.5  -8.7616
  Auburn           0.76790  0.44094 Texas A&M           0.23210  0.55906  21.5  18.4126
  UAB              0.36984  0.44131 Louisiana Tech      0.63016  0.55869  -4.0  -7.0221
  Syracuse         0.37800  0.44256 Duke                0.62200  0.55744  -3.5  -6.3920
  Arizona          0.78223  0.55235 Colorado            0.21777  0.44765  17.0  19.6613
  Texas St.        0.31768  0.54617 Georgia Southern    0.68232  0.45383 -13.0 -10.5993
  Fresno St.       0.49402  0.45454 San Jose St.        0.50598  0.54546   2.0  -0.3008
  Kansas           0.39035  0.45610 Iowa St.            0.60965  0.54390  -3.5  -5.7085
  Texas            0.40071  0.45715 West Va.            0.59929  0.54285  -3.0  -5.1729
  Northwestern     0.50843  0.53843 Michigan            0.49157  0.46157  -1.5   0.4192
  Colorado St.     0.77568  0.53811 Hawaii              0.22432  0.46189  17.0  18.9375
  Florida St.      0.79264  0.53636 Virginia            0.20736  0.46364  19.5  21.3695
  New Mexico       0.24896  0.53425 Boise St.           0.75104  0.46575 -18.0 -16.2556
  Troy St.         0.60285  0.46761 Georgia St.         0.39715  0.53239   7.0   5.3641
  Houston          0.78191  0.53202 Tulane              0.21809  0.46798  18.0  19.6181
  Army             0.38440  0.46859 Connecticut         0.61560  0.53141  -4.5  -6.0851
  Utah             0.37792  0.53020 Oregon              0.62208  0.46980  -8.0  -6.4732
  Washington       0.43755  0.52590 UCLA                0.56245  0.47410  -4.5  -3.1906
  Vanderbilt       0.25401  0.47617 Florida             0.74599  0.52383 -14.5 -15.7080
  Appalachian St.  0.55308  0.47647 Louisiana-Monroe    0.44692  0.52353   4.0   2.7777
  Kent             0.28378  0.52095 Toledo              0.71622  0.47905 -14.0 -12.9434
  Purdue           0.25123  0.52010 Wisconsin           0.74877  0.47990 -17.0 -15.9817
  New Mexico St.   0.26883  0.51657 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.73117  0.48343 -15.5 -14.6413
  North Texas      0.44803  0.51550 Florida Atlantic    0.55197  0.48450  -3.5  -2.7008
  Wake Forest      0.20296  0.48507 Clemson             0.79704  0.51493 -21.0 -21.7563
  Wyoming          0.35599  0.48580 Utah St.            0.64401  0.51420  -7.0  -7.7082
  Rice             0.67628  0.51375 Texas-San Antonio   0.32372  0.48625   9.5  10.2138
  Kentucky         0.32431  0.51182 Georgia             0.67569  0.48818 -10.5  -9.9027
  Boston College   0.45017  0.50991 Louisville          0.54983  0.49009  -3.0  -2.5056
  TCU              0.60712  0.49069 Kansas St.          0.39288  0.50931   6.0   5.5370
  Michigan St.     0.57682  0.50901 Ohio St.            0.42318  0.49099   3.5   3.9548
  Arizona St.      0.55731  0.50771 Notre Dame          0.44269  0.49229   2.5   2.8839
  Minnesota        0.47723  0.50721 Iowa                0.52277  0.49279  -1.5  -1.1396
  Oklahoma         0.61930  0.50711 Baylor              0.38070  0.49289   6.0   6.3610
  Tulsa            0.70221  0.49599 SMU                 0.29779  0.50401  12.5  12.2902
  Ohio             0.57922  0.50189 Buffalo             0.42078  0.49811   4.0   4.0959
  Arkansas St.     0.67515   .      South Alabama       0.32485   .         .    9.6714
  Southern Miss.   0.20532   .      Marshall            0.79468   .         .  -22.3400

An email got me curious. The ‘system’ with the best straight up record this season in the NCAA is the updated line. So what are the records of the systems when they pick underdogs to win straight up? Turns out terrible. Not a single system is better than 50%.

      1 Linear Regression         0.50000 0.50000 13.9860  -3.3560  354.13   10      5   5     5   5
      2 Pigskin Index             0.45714 0.57576 13.7429  -0.8280  331.81   35     16  19    19  14
      3 Pi-Rate Ratings           0.45455 0.51163 14.8339   1.1843  334.72   44     20  24    22  21
      4 CPA Rankings              0.45098 0.54902 11.7939  -0.9496  244.66   51     23  28    28  23
      5 Billingsley+              0.44000 0.52000 14.2956   2.8112  339.90   50     22  28    26  24
      6 Dokter Entropy            0.43590 0.55263 13.5467   2.2067  308.45   39     17  22    21  17
      7 Dunkel Index              0.43284 0.47692 15.1136  -0.5461  480.34   67     29  38    31  34
      8 NutShell Combo            0.42222 0.50000 13.8947   5.1067  303.66   45     19  26    22  22
      9 PI-Rate Bias              0.41463 0.50000 15.3290   1.4168  356.42   41     17  24    20  20
     10 DirectorOfInformation     0.41379 0.41071 12.9324   2.2390  299.01   58     24  34    23  33
     11 Nutshell Girl             0.41270 0.51667 14.5681  -0.0887  379.41   63     26  37    31  29
     12 Logistic Regression       0.41176 0.56250 15.1012  -1.7365  367.41   17      7  10     9   7
     13 Sagarin Ratings           0.40541 0.43243 14.8089   6.2619  348.47   37     15  22    16  21
     14 Billingsley               0.40000 0.44444 12.3411   0.5829  261.92   45     18  27    20  25
     15 Lee Burdorf               0.40000 0.53846 14.2523  -1.2954  320.64   65     26  39    35  30
     16 Pi-Ratings Mean           0.39583 0.47917 15.0246   0.8958  348.63   48     19  29    23  25
     17 System Median             0.38889 0.44444 12.6267   1.6667  267.43   36     14  22    16  20
     18 NutShell Sports           0.38750 0.50000 16.3843   0.6033  428.62   80     31  49    39  39
     19 Thompson ATS              0.38462 0.38462 14.8154   9.8000  348.52   13      5   8     5   8
     20 Randal Horobik            0.38462 0.50000 13.3269   0.3654  284.93   52     20  32    25  25
     21 Stat Fox                  0.37931 0.43860 15.4140   1.8633  379.45   58     22  36    25  32
     22 Catherwood Ratings        0.37931 0.51724 15.9828   1.5690  432.47   58     22  36    30  28
     23 Payne Power Ratings       0.37879 0.53030 14.6094  -2.7658  331.64   66     25  41    35  31
     24 Dave Congrove             0.37838 0.43662 16.6864  -1.3718  457.61   74     28  46    31  40
     25 Sagarin Golden Mean       0.37736 0.46154 14.2502   6.2226  318.17   53     20  33    24  28
     26 Sagarin Points            0.37500 0.38710 13.6244   2.6019  333.87   32     12  20    12  19
     27 Brent Craig 2             0.37500 0.47500 13.1568   4.2698  284.34   40     15  25    19  21
     28 Massey Ratings            0.37500 0.42105 14.3000   0.9500  329.95   40     15  25    16  22
     29 Moore Power Ratings       0.37097 0.49180 15.1552   0.5526  361.03   62     23  39    30  31
     30 ComPughter Ratings        0.37037 0.46296 13.1693  -0.7870  294.67   54     20  34    25  29
     31 DP Dwiggins               0.36957 0.47826 14.3696  -0.0652  332.72   46     17  29    22  24
     32 Atomic Football           0.36842 0.48649 13.9445   2.2287  327.31   38     14  24    18  19
     33 Cleanup Hitter            0.36842 0.48684 19.1132   2.4211  599.64   76     28  48    37  39
     34 Nutshell Eye              0.36735 0.46939 12.7502   5.7094  247.70   49     18  31    23  26
     35 Massey Consensus          0.36735 0.44898 14.9959   2.2824  331.83   49     18  31    22  27
     36 Loudsound.org             0.36170 0.47826 14.4685  -4.2545  310.10   47     17  30    22  24
     37 MDS Model                 0.36145 0.55422 14.0086   5.1155  317.60   83     30  53    46  37
     38 Edward Kambour            0.35849 0.41509 14.2204   0.4781  342.22   53     19  34    22  31
     39 Laz Index                 0.35484 0.46774 12.7742   3.1465  264.27   62     22  40    29  33
     40 Sagarin Points Elo        0.35385 0.41538 16.6586   2.5094  401.58   65     23  42    27  38
     41 Daniel Curry Index        0.35135 0.46575 17.2772  -3.0742  471.96   74     26  48    34  39
     42 ThePowerRank.com          0.34783 0.39130 14.4178   3.8043  339.16   46     16  30    18  28
     43 Thompson Average          0.34615 0.42308 13.9577   3.5500  330.14   26      9  17    11  15
     44 Born Power Index          0.34375 0.45313 16.2048  -3.5048  397.00   64     22  42    29  35
     45 Stephen Kerns             0.34091 0.50000 16.1572  -0.6476  393.69   88     30  58    44  44
     46 Brent Craig               0.34043 0.44681 12.7570   2.8285  266.03   47     16  31    21  26
     47 Thompson CAL              0.33333 0.16667 18.2917   8.8083  460.82   12      4   8     2  10
     48 Tempo Free Gridiron       0.33333 0.43939 13.5455   0.4545  326.58   66     22  44    29  37
     49 Regression Based Analysis 0.32759 0.40351 14.6897   4.2759  346.45   58     19  39    23  34
     50 PerformanZ Ratings        0.32530 0.44578 15.5143   1.9473  374.61   83     27  56    37  46
     51 Ashby AccuRatings         0.32500 0.43590 13.1253   2.7758  271.44   40     13  27    17  22
     52 Keeper                    0.32143 0.50909 13.3545   0.6866  261.18   56     18  38    28  27
     53 Covers.com                0.31707 0.50617 14.2559   5.3368  316.38   82     26  56    41  40
     54 Sportrends                0.31461 0.42353 18.6742  -2.1011  565.10   89     28  61    36  49
     55 System Average            0.31429 0.37143 12.9097   1.8514  289.37   35     11  24    13  22
     56 Laffaye RWP               0.30952 0.51190 14.8183  -2.4448  348.89   84     26  58    43  41
     57 Super List                0.30667 0.51351 15.4599   1.8281  371.77   75     23  52    38  36
     58 FEI Projections           0.30137 0.43056 15.5890  -2.2466  386.49   73     22  51    31  41
     59 Laffaye XWP               0.29630 0.41975 21.7679  10.0519  667.81   81     24  57    34  47
     60 CPA Retro                 0.29333 0.47297 16.7499  -0.7176  428.01   75     22  53    35  39
     61 PointShare                0.29310 0.49123 14.3500   1.0017  294.66   58     17  41    28  29
     62 Marsee                    0.28767 0.45070 16.8767   5.1781  418.47   73     21  52    32  39
     63 Beck Elo                  0.28070 0.40351 15.0425   2.1502  363.41   57     16  41    23  34
     64 ARGH Power Ratings        0.28000 0.44000 14.7850   0.9250  326.97   50     14  36    22  28
     65 Bihl System               0.26923 0.46154 12.1696   2.7258  191.41   26      7  19    12  14
     66 Howell                    0.24194 0.35593 15.3229   2.1297  368.24   62     15  47    21  38
     67 Donchess Inference        0.22807 0.35088 15.0326   1.8972  358.91   57     13  44    20  37
     68 Least Squares w/ HFA      0.20833 0.33333 23.9838  -7.4588  877.55   24      5  19     8  16
     69 Line (opening)            0.20000 0.40909 11.9600   2.3600  267.04   25      5  20     9  13
     70 Computer Adjusted Line    0.00000 1.00000 34.0000  34.0000 1156.00    1      0   1     1   0

NFL Week 9

At least the NFL numbers are doing fairly well. Top game is 4-3, and top 3 are 12-9.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Kansas City     0.75001    0.58791   N.Y. Jets      0.24999    0.41209    10.5    14.6529
Carolina        0.49620    0.57245   New Orleans    0.50380    0.42755    -3.5    -0.1714
Cleveland       0.69190    0.56586   Tampa Bay      0.30810    0.43414     7.0    10.0709
Dallas          0.54257    0.45337   Arizona        0.45743    0.54663     4.0     1.9079
Cincinnati      0.74080    0.54632   Jacksonville   0.25920    0.45368    11.5    13.6138
Pittsburgh      0.46024    0.46024   Baltimore      0.53976    0.53976     0.0    -1.8056
Minnesota       0.52983    0.52983   Washington     0.47017    0.47017     0.0     1.3460
Miami           0.47833    0.47833   San Diego      0.52167    0.52167     0.0    -0.9647
Seattle         0.76251    0.48676   Oakland        0.23749    0.51324    16.5    15.8886
N.Y. Giants     0.42502    0.49036   Indianapolis   0.57498    0.50964    -3.0    -3.4333
Houston         0.46831    0.49045   Philadelphia   0.53169    0.50955    -1.0    -1.4293
New England     0.43999    0.50578   Denver         0.56001    0.49422    -3.0    -2.7394
San Francisco   0.70671    0.49956   St. Louis      0.29329    0.50044    11.0    10.9798

NCAA Week 10

The ncaa numbers continue to show no signs of turning around. Last week the top game was correct but top 5 was 2-3. Season record is 3-5 on the top game and 14-26 on the top 5

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road              p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Pittsburgh          0.38511  0.32848 Duke             0.61489  0.67152   3.5  -5.9946
  Nevada              0.65425  0.60360 San Diego St.    0.34575  0.39640   3.0   8.3568
  Army                0.36035  0.40202 Air Force        0.63965  0.59798  -2.5  -7.7541
  Baylor              0.84306  0.40436 Kansas           0.15694  0.59564  35.5  30.4334
  Connecticut         0.26173  0.41247 Central Florida  0.73827  0.58753 -10.5 -15.0800
  UCLA                0.55015  0.41403 Arizona          0.44985  0.58597   7.0   2.5525
  Hawaii              0.36290  0.41563 Utah St.         0.63710  0.58437  -3.0  -7.3301
  Georgia Tech        0.64484  0.58404 Virginia         0.35516  0.41596   3.5   7.8210
  Washington St.      0.31325  0.41969 USC              0.68675  0.58031  -6.5 -10.6174
  Mississippi St.     0.73077  0.57472 Arkansas         0.26923  0.42528  10.5  14.3823
  Miami (Fla.)        0.69305  0.42655 North Carolina   0.30695  0.57345  15.0  11.2051
  Ohio St.            0.81476  0.43357 Illinois         0.18524  0.56643  28.5  25.0142
  Appalachian St.     0.65655  0.43434 Georgia St.      0.34345  0.56566  13.0   9.3483
  Syracuse            0.62709  0.56517 NC St.           0.37291  0.43483   3.5   6.8918
  Fresno St.          0.66687  0.43871 Wyoming          0.33313  0.56129  12.5   9.3479
  Texas A&M           0.83115  0.43882 Louisiana-Monroe 0.16885  0.56118  33.0  29.6194
  Missouri            0.67632  0.55867 Kentucky         0.32368  0.44133   7.0  10.0206
  Colorado            0.37253  0.44536 Washington       0.62747  0.55464  -4.0  -6.7745
  Navy                0.24446  0.44857 Notre Dame       0.75554  0.55143 -14.0 -16.6156
  Tulane              0.36749  0.44942 Cincinnati       0.63251  0.55058  -4.5  -7.0587
  Georgia             0.73868  0.54951 Florida          0.26132  0.45049  12.5  15.0310
  New Mexico St.      0.40572  0.54931 Texas St.        0.59428  0.45069  -7.5  -4.9610
  South Carolina      0.59156  0.45709 Tennessee        0.40844  0.54291   7.0   4.7995
  South Florida       0.31644  0.46318 Houston          0.68356  0.53682  -8.5 -10.3490
  Florida Intl.       0.41995  0.53606 Rice             0.58005  0.46394  -6.0  -4.1587
  Louisiana Tech      0.65070  0.52729 Western Kentucky 0.34930  0.47271   7.0   8.4113
  Oregon St.          0.58296  0.52630 California       0.41704  0.47370   3.0   4.3515
  UTEP                0.65339  0.52554 Southern Miss.   0.34661  0.47446   7.0   8.2720
  Mississippi         0.57377  0.52501 Auburn           0.42623  0.47499   2.5   3.7516
  Arizona St.         0.59397  0.47606 Utah             0.40603  0.52394   6.0   4.8086
  Temple              0.38228  0.52356 East Carolina    0.61772  0.47644  -7.5  -6.2959
  Iowa                0.60051  0.52319 Northwestern     0.39949  0.47681   4.0   5.1506
  Michigan            0.61286  0.47773 Indiana          0.38714  0.52227   7.0   5.8857
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.60477  0.47925 South Alabama    0.39523  0.52075   6.5   5.4572
  Louisville          0.41541  0.48052 Florida St.      0.58459  0.51948  -3.5  -4.5169
  Rutgers             0.32483  0.51863 Wisconsin        0.67517  0.48137 -11.0 -10.0411
  Miami (Ohio)        0.36188  0.48272 Western Mich.    0.63812  0.51728  -6.5  -7.3635
  Vanderbilt          0.64088  0.51707 Old Dominion     0.35912  0.48293   7.0   7.8941
  Iowa St.            0.25469  0.51553 Oklahoma         0.74531  0.48447 -16.5 -15.7097
  Middle Tenn.        0.43915  0.51501 BYU              0.56085  0.48499  -4.0  -3.2161
  UNLV                0.51281  0.51281 New Mexico       0.48719  0.48719   0.0   0.6488
  San Jose St.        0.36044  0.49004 Colorado St.     0.63956  0.50996  -7.0  -7.5007
  Nebraska            0.80581  0.49140 Purdue           0.19419  0.50860  23.5  23.0642
  Memphis             0.81005  0.49282 Tulsa            0.18995  0.50718  24.5  24.1302
  Oregon              0.65323  0.50643 Stanford         0.34677  0.49357   8.0   8.3221
  West Va.            0.39998  0.50588 TCU              0.60002  0.49412  -5.5  -5.2042
  Penn St.            0.56353  0.49429 Maryland         0.43647  0.50571   3.5   3.2148
  Idaho               0.26364  0.49544 Arkansas St.     0.73636  0.50456 -14.5 -14.7300
  Kansas St.          0.73562  0.49611 Oklahoma St.     0.26438  0.50389  15.0  14.8018
  Eastern Mich.       0.27034  0.49634 Central Mich.    0.72966  0.50366 -14.0 -14.1855
  Georgia Southern    0.80678  0.49840 Troy St.         0.19322  0.50160  24.5  24.4148
  Virginia Tech       0.56788  0.49885 Boston College   0.43212  0.50115   3.5   3.4426
  Florida Atlantic    0.50925   .      UAB              0.49075   .         .    0.4722
  Texas Tech          0.43110   .      Texas            0.56890   .         .   -3.5443

NCAA week 9

Last week was a bad 1-4 in the top 5. Perhaps you start looking at opposites as the top pick is 2-5 and the top five a lowly 12-23 for the season.

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road              p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Hawaii              0.35594  0.39854 Nevada           0.64406  0.60146  -2.5  -7.7792
  Arkansas            0.76685  0.40098 UAB              0.23315  0.59902  24.5  19.0048
  Navy                0.58290  0.40755 San Jose St.     0.41710  0.59245   9.0   4.2420
  Boise St.           0.55639  0.42019 BYU              0.44361  0.57981   7.0   2.8799
  Washington St.      0.37738  0.42195 Arizona          0.62262  0.57805  -2.5  -6.5295
  Wisconsin           0.61476  0.42439 Maryland         0.38524  0.57561  10.0   6.0894
  Utah St.            0.78809  0.57516 UNLV             0.21191  0.42484  17.0  20.9606
  Missouri            0.81563  0.57086 Vanderbilt       0.18437  0.42914  21.0  24.6496
  Illinois            0.32687  0.42938 Minnesota        0.67313  0.57062  -6.0  -9.5696
  Tennessee           0.27196  0.57032 Alabama          0.72804  0.42968 -17.5 -13.9120
  Kansas St.          0.72299  0.56866 Texas            0.27701  0.43134  10.0  13.5109
  Michigan St.        0.78618  0.56566 Michigan         0.21382  0.43434  17.0  20.3931
  Louisiana-Monroe    0.60050  0.56334 Texas St.        0.39950  0.43666   2.0   5.2260
  Kentucky            0.24270  0.43728 Mississippi St.  0.75730  0.56272 -14.0 -17.2985
  South Alabama       0.75736  0.56181 Troy St.         0.24264  0.43819  14.0  17.2361
  Eastern Mich.       0.24713  0.56141 Northern Ill.    0.75287  0.43859 -19.5 -16.3608
  Miami (Ohio)        0.57472  0.43955 Kent             0.42528  0.56045   7.0   3.8807
  Virginia Tech       0.55642  0.55642 Miami (Fla.)     0.44358  0.44358   0.0   2.8346
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.38015  0.44375 Arkansas St.     0.61985  0.55625  -3.5  -6.3826
  Clemson             0.76214  0.55310 Syracuse         0.23786  0.44690  14.5  17.1799
  LSU                 0.38425  0.44888 Mississippi      0.61575  0.55112  -3.5  -6.0945
  Marshall            0.81901  0.45466 Florida Atlantic 0.18099  0.54534  28.0  25.6494
  Central Florida     0.66499  0.54366 Temple           0.33501  0.45634   7.0   9.2348
  TCU                 0.81379  0.54355 Texas Tech       0.18621  0.45645  22.5  24.7579
  Toledo              0.73037  0.45887 Massachusetts    0.26963  0.54113  16.5  14.3851
  Pittsburgh          0.51906  0.45912 Georgia Tech     0.48094  0.54088   3.0   0.9512
  East Carolina       0.82586  0.46116 Connecticut      0.17414  0.53884  28.5  26.5189
  California          0.25137  0.53709 Oregon           0.74863  0.46291 -18.0 -16.0994
  Washington          0.46381  0.53395 Arizona St.      0.53619  0.46605  -3.5  -1.8063
  Cincinnati          0.70636  0.53288 South Florida    0.29364  0.46712  10.5  12.1646
  Western Mich.       0.66905  0.46852 Ohio             0.33095  0.53148  11.0   9.4104
  Western Kentucky    0.70196  0.53117 Old Dominion     0.29804  0.46883  10.5  12.1174
  Utah                0.50940  0.52940 USC              0.49060  0.47060  -1.0   0.4684
  Buffalo             0.42042  0.52761 Central Mich.    0.57958  0.47239  -5.5  -4.1030
  Georgia St.         0.25849  0.52645 Georgia Southern 0.74151  0.47355 -17.0 -15.6273
  Stanford            0.70306  0.47573 Oregon St.       0.29694  0.52427  13.0  11.7853
  Penn St.            0.28768  0.52292 Ohio St.         0.71232  0.47708 -14.0 -12.8252
  Colorado            0.26088  0.47807 UCLA             0.73912  0.52193 -14.0 -15.1169
  Ball St.            0.49934  0.51909 Akron            0.50066  0.48091  -1.0  -0.0335
  Virginia            0.61406  0.48139 North Carolina   0.38594  0.51861   7.0   6.0538
  Southern Miss.      0.31779  0.48145 Louisiana Tech   0.68221  0.51855  -9.5 -10.4456
  Colorado St.        0.77903  0.51399 Wyoming          0.22097  0.48601  18.5  19.2028
  Texas-San Antonio   0.67800  0.48961 UTEP             0.32200  0.51039  11.0  10.4543
  Auburn              0.77125  0.50971 South Carolina   0.22875  0.49029  18.5  19.0074
  SMU                 0.20833  0.49139 Memphis          0.79167  0.50861 -23.0 -23.4875
  Oklahoma St.        0.51494  0.49553 West Va.         0.48506  0.50447   1.0   0.7696
  Nebraska            0.77598  0.50343 Rutgers          0.22402  0.49657  19.0  19.1752
  Wake Forest         0.28236  0.49663 Boston College   0.71764  0.50337 -13.0 -13.1712
  Rice                0.71936  0.50181 North Texas      0.28064  0.49819  13.5  13.5938