Skip to content

NFL Week 3

Last week it looked like there might be another 3-0 week but then a couple games flipped and the top 3 ended only 1-2.
Top game is now 1-1, top 3 4-2.

home           p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Arizona       0.54238   0.62220  San Francisco  0.45762   0.37780   -3.0    1.5586
 N.Y. Jets     0.46144   0.38283  Chicago        0.53856   0.61717    3.0   -1.4433
 Carolina      0.69189   0.60443  Pittsburgh     0.30811   0.39557    3.5    7.4210
 Buffalo       0.47434   0.40821  San Diego      0.52566   0.59179    2.5   -0.9591
 New Orleans   0.66254   0.41021  Minnesota      0.33746   0.58979   10.0    6.4884
 Cincinnati    0.74419   0.58619  Tennessee      0.25581   0.41381    6.5    9.7275
 N.Y. Giants   0.51866   0.56993  Houston        0.48134   0.43007   -2.0    0.7233
 Philadelphia  0.71962   0.55965  Washington     0.28038   0.44035    6.5    8.7601
 New England   0.84527   0.53239  Oakland        0.15473   0.46761   14.0   15.2167
 Jacksonville  0.29234   0.46862  Indianapolis   0.70766   0.53138   -7.0   -8.1780
 St. Louis     0.49866   0.47235  Dallas         0.50134   0.52765    1.0   -0.0507
 Cleveland     0.42104   0.47492  Baltimore      0.57896   0.52508   -2.0   -2.9228
 Miami         0.59051   0.48543  Kansas City    0.40949   0.51457    4.0    3.4494
 Detroit       0.56545   0.49815  Green Bay      0.43455   0.50185    2.5    2.4317
 Seattle       0.63340   0.50169  Denver         0.36660   0.49831    5.0    5.0627
 Atlanta       0.64463   0.49883  Tampa Bay      0.35537   0.50117    5.5    5.4569

NCAA Week 4

Last week wasn’t so great. The top game was correct but the next 4 were wrong.
That brings the top game to 2-1, and the top 5 to 6-9 for the season.

 home            p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

 Arkansas       0.59676  0.29849 Northern Ill.       0.40324  0.70151  13.5   4.2743
 Wisconsin      0.87262  0.31661 Bowling Green       0.12738  0.68339  27.0  19.0274
 Wake Forest    0.62077  0.67677 Army                0.37923  0.32323  -2.5   5.0843
 Missouri       0.88726  0.66296 Indiana             0.11274  0.33704  13.5  20.6727
 Syracuse       0.67455  0.65299 Maryland            0.32545  0.34701   1.0   7.6565
 Toledo         0.68990  0.36344 Ball St.            0.31010  0.63656  14.0   8.2119
 Arizona        0.81624  0.63649 California          0.18376  0.36351   9.5  15.5073
 West Va.       0.20600  0.36672 Oklahoma            0.79400  0.63328  -8.0 -13.6777
 Rice           0.76171  0.63317 Old Dominion        0.23829  0.36683   7.0  13.4110
 Memphis        0.64903  0.36829 Middle Tenn.        0.35097  0.63171  12.0   6.3863
 Cincinnati     0.97077  0.60941 Miami (Ohio)        0.02923  0.39059  27.5  32.2319
 Colorado       0.58051  0.39171 Hawaii              0.41949  0.60829   8.0   3.4003
 Houston        0.84612  0.41175 UNLV                0.15388  0.58825  21.0  17.2318
 Arkansas St.   0.47472  0.41423 Utah St.            0.52528  0.58577   2.5  -1.0344
 New Mexico St. 0.50268  0.58576 New Mexico          0.49732  0.41424  -3.5   0.1120
 Washington St. 0.10624  0.58508 Oregon              0.89376  0.41492 -24.0 -20.4714
 Duke           0.88913  0.58097 Tulane              0.11087  0.41903  17.0  20.4143
 Nebraska       0.74191  0.57676 Miami (Fla.)        0.25809  0.42324   7.5  10.6867
 SMU            0.04873  0.57358 Texas A&M           0.95127  0.42642 -33.5 -30.1279
 BYU            0.83793  0.57271 Virginia            0.16207  0.42729  13.5  16.5823
 Penn St.       0.96049  0.57239 Massachusetts       0.03951  0.42761  27.0  30.1298
 Michigan       0.54957  0.44039 Utah                0.45043  0.55961   4.5   2.0418
 Illinois       0.75045  0.44226 Texas St.           0.24955  0.55774  14.0  11.5239
 Wyoming        0.53903  0.44322 Florida Atlantic    0.46097  0.55678   4.0   1.6276
 Ohio           0.76220  0.44807 Idaho               0.23780  0.55193  14.0  11.8344
 Minnesota      0.74085  0.54997 San Jose St.        0.25915  0.45003   8.5  10.5513
 Kansas         0.53719  0.45261 Central Mich.       0.46281  0.54739   3.5   1.5383
 Navy           0.68660  0.54732 Rutgers             0.31340  0.45268   6.0   7.9421
 Georgia        0.98390  0.45541 Troy St.            0.01610  0.54459  41.0  38.9627
 Alabama        0.83741  0.54239 Florida             0.16259  0.45761  14.5  16.2595
 Washington     0.97954  0.54003 Georgia St.         0.02046  0.45997  34.5  36.2840
 Vanderbilt     0.12952  0.53818 South Carolina      0.87048  0.46182 -21.5 -19.8171
 South Florida  0.51153  0.46407 Connecticut         0.48847  0.53593   2.0   0.4855
 South Alabama  0.58043  0.52780 Georgia Southern    0.41957  0.47220   2.5   3.8083
 Southern Miss. 0.52765  0.47316 Appalachian St.     0.47235  0.52684   2.5   1.2685
 Michigan St.   0.97178  0.47736 Eastern Mich.       0.02822  0.52264  45.0  43.6994
 Florida St.    0.81621  0.47748 Clemson             0.18379  0.52252  16.5  15.5265
 LSU            0.70744  0.48330 Mississippi St.     0.29256  0.51670   9.5   8.8231
 Boise St.      0.85921  0.51639 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.14079  0.48361  17.0  17.6746
 Virginia Tech  0.67151  0.48398 Georgia Tech        0.32849  0.51602   8.0   7.3363
 Kansas St.     0.31119  0.51519 Auburn              0.68881  0.48481  -9.0  -8.3542
 Florida Intl.  0.07330  0.51296 Louisville          0.92670  0.48704 -27.0 -26.4087
 Oregon St.     0.72919  0.50535 San Diego St.       0.27081  0.49465  10.0  10.2245
 Pittsburgh     0.64926  0.49765 Iowa                0.35074  0.50235   7.0   6.8939
 Akron          0.29353  0.49907 Marshall            0.70647  0.50093  -9.0  -9.0390
 East Carolina  0.54789  0.50082 North Carolina      0.45211  0.49918   2.0   2.0346

I have been on vacation this week so it has been a struggle to keep up with things.
I believe the top 5 games were 3-2 last week. Making the top game 1-1 and top 5 5-5 for the season.

home              p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Bowling Green    0.53954  0.71876 Indiana             0.46046  0.28124  -8.5   1.7584
Buffalo          0.07390  0.69108 Baylor              0.92610  0.30892 -34.5 -25.6562
TCU              0.68086  0.33090 Minnesota           0.31914  0.66910  15.5   8.0290
North Texas      0.69308  0.62994 Louisiana Tech      0.30692  0.37006   3.0   8.7546
Virginia         0.24064  0.37350 Louisville          0.75936  0.62650  -6.5 -11.9944
Connecticut      0.25450  0.61956 Boise St.           0.74550  0.38044 -16.0 -10.9528
Georgia St.      0.34513  0.61644 Air Force           0.65487  0.38356 -11.5  -6.5972
Marshall         0.84625  0.39062 Ohio                0.15375  0.60938  21.5  16.9008
Fresno St.       0.32829  0.60257 Nebraska            0.67171  0.39743 -12.0  -7.5723
Miami (Fla.)     0.76691  0.40102 Arkansas St.        0.23309  0.59898  16.5  12.2763
Oregon           0.98705  0.40423 Wyoming             0.01295  0.59577  43.0  38.7802
Rutgers          0.33585  0.40570 Penn St.            0.66415  0.59430  -3.0  -6.8650
Old Dominion     0.79573  0.40602 Eastern Mich.       0.20427  0.59398  19.0  14.7546
Stanford         0.96051  0.58921 Army                0.03949  0.41079  28.0  32.1242
Vanderbilt       0.86468  0.58889 Massachusetts       0.13532  0.41111  16.0  20.0996
Duke             0.86386  0.58867 Kansas              0.13614  0.41133  14.5  18.2194
Colorado         0.13516  0.41727 Arizona St.         0.86484  0.58273 -15.0 -18.5070
Texas A&M        0.94576  0.42162 Rice                0.05424  0.57838  31.5  28.0448
Florida          0.81863  0.42363 Kentucky            0.18137  0.57637  18.5  15.2686
Utah St.         0.76621  0.42858 Wake Forest         0.23379  0.57142  15.0  12.0213
South Carolina   0.42067  0.56999 Georgia             0.57933  0.43001  -6.5  -3.4558
Georgia Tech     0.86625  0.56493 Georgia Southern    0.13375  0.43507  17.0  19.9399
Texas Tech       0.59826  0.56408 Arkansas            0.40174  0.43592   1.5   4.2649
Notre Dame       0.96536  0.56391 Purdue              0.03464  0.43609  28.0  30.7208
Texas            0.38730  0.56142 UCLA                0.61270  0.43858  -7.5  -4.8710
Alabama          0.99494  0.44234 Southern Miss.      0.00506  0.55766  48.0  45.4372
Middle Tenn.     0.48139  0.44449 Western Kentucky    0.51861  0.55551   1.5  -0.7532
Iowa             0.80853  0.55534 Iowa St.            0.19147  0.44466  12.0  14.2774
UNLV             0.24425  0.45142 Northern Ill.       0.75575  0.54858 -10.0 -12.1396
Oklahoma         0.87885  0.45185 Tennessee           0.12115  0.54815  21.0  19.0308
Ohio St.         0.96185  0.45235 Kent                0.03815  0.54765  32.0  29.9753
UTEP             0.68650  0.45297 New Mexico St.      0.31350  0.54703  10.0   8.0439
Florida Atlantic 0.54603  0.54603 Tulsa               0.45397  0.45397   0.0   1.9507
Virginia Tech    0.75455  0.54553 East Carolina       0.24545  0.45447  10.0  11.9910
Florida Intl.    0.09141  0.53528 Pittsburgh          0.90859  0.46472 -25.5 -23.9106
South Alabama    0.23675  0.53470 Mississippi St.     0.76325  0.46530 -13.5 -12.0373
Cincinnati       0.70372  0.47027 Toledo              0.29628  0.52973  10.0   8.7766
Mississippi      0.93333  0.47651 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.06667  0.52349  27.5  26.4614
Washington       0.80410  0.51817 Illinois            0.19590  0.48183  13.5  14.2585
Idaho            0.55679  0.48441 Western Mich.       0.44321  0.51559   3.0   2.3556
Missouri         0.73668  0.51411 Central Florida     0.26332  0.48589  10.0  10.5920
Boston College   0.14685  0.48607 USC                 0.85315  0.51393 -17.0 -17.5848
Maryland         0.57253  0.48869 West Va.            0.42747  0.51131   3.5   3.0299
BYU              0.83563  0.51049 Houston             0.16437  0.48951  17.0  17.4703
LSU              0.96295  0.49041 Louisiana-Monroe    0.03705  0.50959  31.0  30.5882
South Florida    0.47256  0.50938 NC St.              0.52744  0.49062  -1.5  -1.1180
Central Mich.    0.35754  0.50626 Syracuse            0.64246  0.49374  -6.5  -6.2321
Texas St.        0.28458  0.49379 Navy                0.71542  0.50621 -10.0 -10.2810
Arizona          0.85789  0.49382 Nevada              0.14211  0.50618  18.0  17.7435
Michigan         0.97214  0.49394 Miami (Ohio)        0.02786  0.50606  33.5  33.2362
Oklahoma St.     0.77792  0.49560 Texas-San Antonio   0.22208  0.50440  13.5  13.3081

NFL Week 2

Last week the top 3 NFL picks got off to a 3-0 start.

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road           p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 San Francisco  0.78582   0.62481  Chicago       0.21418   0.37519    7.0   11.6995
 Tampa Bay      0.54349   0.38152  St. Louis     0.45651   0.61848    6.0    1.5957
 Oakland        0.49926   0.58050  Houston       0.50074   0.41950   -3.0   -0.0272
 Cincinnati     0.70364   0.57804  Atlanta       0.29636   0.42196    5.0    7.9124
 Denver         0.75680   0.43089  Kansas City   0.24320   0.56911   13.0   10.3987
 Minnesota      0.47997   0.55808  New England   0.52003   0.44192   -3.0   -0.7674
 Carolina       0.61568   0.54921  Detroit       0.38432   0.45079    2.5    4.3136
 Indianapolis   0.53796   0.45778  Philadelphia  0.46204   0.54222    3.0    1.4201
 Green Bay      0.67957   0.47335  N.Y. Jets     0.32043   0.52665    8.0    6.9973
 Washington     0.63158   0.47449  Jacksonville  0.36842   0.52551    6.0    5.0403
 Baltimore      0.54364   0.47588  Pittsburgh    0.45636   0.52412    2.5    1.6109
 Tennessee      0.61511   0.52201  Dallas        0.38489   0.47799    3.5    4.3137
 San Diego      0.37112   0.51889  Seattle       0.62888   0.48111   -5.5   -4.8078
 N.Y. Giants    0.42159   0.48579  Arizona       0.57841   0.51421   -2.5   -3.0491
 Buffalo        0.48981   0.48981  Miami         0.51019   0.51019    0.0   -0.3723
 Cleveland      0.32836   0.49913  New Orleans   0.67164   0.50087   -6.5   -6.5322

NFL Week 1

 home           p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Tampa Bay     0.40572   0.34141  Carolina       0.59428   0.65859    2.5   -3.5077
 Seattle       0.76634   0.63031  Green Bay      0.23366   0.36969    6.0   11.0642
 Baltimore     0.47207   0.41839  Cincinnati     0.52793   0.58161    2.0   -1.0307
 Kansas City   0.66635   0.57500  Tennessee      0.33365   0.42500    3.5    6.2493
 Philadelphia  0.80127   0.56618  Jacksonville   0.19873   0.43382   10.0   12.4523
 Dallas        0.32301   0.43941  San Francisco  0.67699   0.56059   -4.5   -6.7360
 Pittsburgh    0.72181   0.54407  Cleveland      0.27819   0.45593    7.0    8.6227
 Atlanta       0.37925   0.45838  New Orleans    0.62075   0.54162   -3.0   -4.5454
 Chicago       0.64537   0.46220  Buffalo        0.35463   0.53780    7.0    5.5800
 St. Louis     0.62867   0.53604  Minnesota      0.37133   0.46396    3.5    4.8308
 Denver        0.72528   0.53493  Indianapolis   0.27472   0.46507    7.5    8.7870
 Detroit       0.62240   0.47442  N.Y. Giants    0.37760   0.52558    5.5    4.5613
 Houston       0.55800   0.47483  Washington     0.44200   0.52517    3.0    2.0938
 N.Y. Jets     0.66805   0.52475  Oakland        0.33195   0.47525    5.5    6.4166
 Arizona       0.58660   0.49050  San Diego      0.41340   0.50950    3.5    3.1563
 Miami         0.37089   0.50424  New England    0.62911   0.49576   -5.0   -4.8439

NCAA Week 2

I generally post the record of the top 5 games in NCAA and top 3 games in NFL. There is no meaning behind choosing these numbers. I just want an easy selection of games to track, not to many or not too few. In practice I would say something like look into all games over around 55% and make personal decisions from there. For example in the comments of the previous post on “Bad Start” a quick look of the numbers suggests subsets that might be slightly better or worse than others.

Last week the top 5 games went 2-3 ATS, and the top game was 0-1.

home                 p(win) p(cover) road              p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Wyoming             0.63877  0.68349 Air Force        0.36123  0.31651  -2.0   5.8073
Vanderbilt          0.24652  0.68248 Mississippi      0.75348  0.31752 -20.0 -11.8172
Northwestern        0.48763  0.33133 Northern Ill.    0.51237  0.66867   7.0  -0.5357
Army                0.42707  0.34731 Buffalo          0.57293  0.65269   3.5  -3.0818
NC St.              0.72401  0.34861 Old Dominion     0.27599  0.65139  17.0  10.2773
Illinois            0.50944  0.37247 Western Kentucky 0.49056  0.62753   6.0   0.4068
Texas               0.62370  0.62370 BYU              0.37630  0.37630   0.0   5.0991
Alabama             0.98162  0.38606 Florida Atlantic 0.01838  0.61394  40.5  35.5678
Penn St.            0.87798  0.61098 Akron            0.12202  0.38902  14.5  19.1284
Tennessee           0.78381  0.39417 Arkansas St.     0.21619  0.60583  17.5  13.0407
North Texas         0.67245  0.60381 SMU              0.32755  0.39619   3.0   7.3038
Hawaii              0.19448  0.40122 Oregon St.       0.80552  0.59878 -10.5 -14.7974
Toledo              0.31913  0.40731 Missouri         0.68087  0.59269  -4.0  -7.9797
Kentucky            0.70299  0.40789 Ohio             0.29701  0.59211  13.0   9.0461
Auburn              0.94454  0.41521 San Jose St.     0.05546  0.58479  32.0  28.2102
Utah                0.67538  0.42772 Fresno St.       0.32462  0.57228  10.5   7.4971
Minnesota           0.78057  0.42865 Middle Tenn.     0.21943  0.57135  16.0  12.9841
Oregon              0.69988  0.43017 Michigan St.     0.30012  0.56983  11.5   8.6094
Georgia St.         0.54563  0.56910 New Mexico St.   0.45437  0.43090  -1.0   1.9280
Ohio St.            0.80043  0.56731 Virginia Tech    0.19957  0.43269  11.0  13.7684
Louisiana-Monroe    0.84150  0.56658 Idaho            0.15850  0.43342  14.0  16.8178
South Florida       0.27564  0.56484 Maryland         0.72436  0.43516 -13.0 -10.2044
Iowa                0.80679  0.43890 Ball St.         0.19321  0.56110  17.5  14.8618
Stanford            0.62735  0.55506 USC              0.37265  0.44494   3.0   5.2283
North Carolina      0.78937  0.44617 San Diego St.    0.21063  0.55383  16.0  13.6951
Florida             0.97624  0.45015 Eastern Mich.    0.02376  0.54985  38.0  35.7403
Massachusetts       0.18949  0.54796 Colorado         0.81051  0.45204 -17.0 -14.9521
UCLA                0.92813  0.54776 Memphis          0.07187  0.45224  23.5  25.6016
Temple              0.47696  0.54700 Navy             0.52304  0.45300  -3.0  -0.9857
Notre Dame          0.63978  0.54493 Michigan         0.36022  0.45507   4.0   5.8425
Boise St.           0.69832  0.45516 Colorado St.     0.30168  0.54484  10.5   8.6292
Texas-San Antonio   0.35756  0.54483 Arizona          0.64244  0.45517  -8.0  -6.1137
Purdue              0.52900  0.45549 Central Mich.    0.47100  0.54451   3.0   1.1826
Mississippi St.     0.94786  0.54398 UAB              0.05214  0.45602  27.5  29.5064
Nevada              0.43828  0.53602 Washington St.   0.56172  0.46398  -4.0  -2.5284
Kent                0.46051  0.53452 South Alabama    0.53949  0.46548  -3.0  -1.6010
UTEP                0.13864  0.52885 Texas Tech       0.86136  0.47115 -20.5 -19.2197
South Carolina      0.81979  0.47539 East Carolina    0.18021  0.52461  17.0  15.9252
New Mexico          0.06729  0.48684 Arizona St.      0.93271  0.51316 -25.0 -25.5638
Boston College      0.41536  0.51136 Pittsburgh       0.58464  0.48864  -4.0  -3.5297
Iowa St.            0.21553  0.48977 Kansas St.       0.78447  0.51023 -12.5 -12.9210
Tulane              0.26331  0.49051 Georgia Tech     0.73669  0.50949 -10.0 -10.3904
Louisiana-Lafayette 0.80573  0.50378 Louisiana Tech   0.19427  0.49622  14.0  14.1554
Tulsa               0.08078  0.50376 Oklahoma         0.91922  0.49624 -25.0 -24.8328
Troy St.            0.14362  0.50054 Duke             0.85638  0.49946 -19.0 -18.9757

bad start

Last night there were 5 games that the prediction tracker follows. 15 systems got of to an 0-5 start straight up. And another 20 systems went 1-4. Sporttrends was the only system with a winning record, and now holds a 2 game lead on the field after only 5 games.

NCAA Week 1

Here are updated probabilities. I have also starting putting these on the prediction tracker in the top section. The probabilities will be based on the updated line. And for space I am only putting the info for the home team.

home              p(win) p(cover) road               p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

 Texas            0.80133  0.25339 North Texas       0.19867  0.74661  25.5  14.2909
 NC St.           0.73036  0.28647 Georgia Southern  0.26964  0.71353  20.5  10.6867
 UAB              0.35266  0.28755 Troy St.          0.64734  0.71245   3.0  -6.2201
 Hawaii           0.07202  0.33068 Washington        0.92798  0.66932 -17.0 -24.2801
 Colorado         0.41335  0.34607 Colorado St.      0.58665  0.65393   3.0  -3.7110
 USC              0.82264  0.34617 Fresno St.        0.17736  0.65383  22.0  15.4111
 Tulsa            0.50892  0.35758 Tulane            0.49108  0.64242   6.5   0.3753
 Tennessee        0.50371  0.36289 Utah St.          0.49629  0.63711   6.0   0.1549
 Boise St.        0.36158  0.62299 Mississippi       0.63842  0.37701 -11.0  -5.8369
 Baylor           0.95125  0.38592 SMU               0.04875  0.61408  33.0  28.0851
 Northwestern     0.81990  0.60078 California        0.18010  0.39922  11.0  15.2587
 Georgia          0.58750  0.40534 Clemson           0.41250  0.59466   7.5   3.6001
 Louisville       0.67147  0.59420 Miami (Fla.)      0.32853  0.40580   3.5   7.5575
 Michigan         0.94768  0.40637 Appalachian St.   0.05232  0.59363  34.5  30.1052
 Oklahoma St.     0.19846  0.59305 Florida St.       0.80154  0.40695 -18.0 -14.0860
 Notre Dame       0.85433  0.41560 Rice              0.14567  0.58440  21.0  17.4707
 Nebraska         0.85731  0.41771 Florida Atlantic  0.14269  0.58229  21.5  17.9995
 Florida          0.96926  0.42397 Idaho             0.03074  0.57603  36.5  33.1057
 Mississippi St.  0.96763  0.57563 Southern Miss.    0.03237  0.42437  31.0  34.5698
 Wisconsin        0.44919  0.57275 LSU               0.55081  0.42725  -5.0  -2.0527
 Arizona          0.87601  0.42747 UNLV              0.12399  0.57253  23.5  20.2892
 South Carolina   0.69259  0.43009 Texas A&M         0.30741  0.56991  11.0   8.1480
 Louisiana-Monroe 0.47202  0.43612 Wake Forest       0.52798  0.56388   1.5  -1.1618
 Auburn           0.90786  0.55894 Arkansas          0.09214  0.44106  20.0  22.5144
 Massachusetts    0.12961  0.45230 Boston College    0.87039  0.54770 -17.0 -19.0207
 Central Florida  0.58380  0.54764 Penn St.          0.41620  0.45236   1.5   3.4533
 Navy             0.18967  0.54483 Ohio St.          0.81033  0.45517 -16.0 -14.1831
 Vanderbilt       0.82932  0.54223 Temple            0.17068  0.45777  14.0  15.7562
 Connecticut      0.19553  0.54193 BYU               0.80447  0.45807 -16.0 -14.2505
 Houston          0.77006  0.53835 Texas-San Antonio 0.22994  0.46165  10.5  12.0730
 West Va.         0.06353  0.53309 Alabama           0.93647  0.46691 -26.0 -24.6580
 Kent             0.58991  0.53058 Ohio              0.41009  0.46942   2.5   3.7736
 Miami (Ohio)     0.08580  0.48058 Marshall          0.91420  0.51942 -24.0 -24.8865
 Western Kentucky 0.31724  0.48171 Bowling Green     0.68276  0.51829  -7.0  -7.7473
 New Mexico       0.69080  0.51478 UTEP              0.30920  0.48522   7.5   8.1028
 Virginia         0.09873  0.48753 UCLA              0.90127  0.51247 -21.0 -21.5221
 Washington St.   0.69506  0.50921 Rutgers           0.30494  0.49079   8.0   8.3793
 Oklahoma         0.98147  0.50588 Louisiana Tech    0.01853  0.49412  38.0  38.2706
 Purdue           0.72920  0.49752 Western Mich.     0.27080  0.50248  10.0   9.8993

Early week 1 ncaa lines

OK, The season starts two weeks from today. The lines for all the games are available in some places. Here is an early look at the games based on about 20 ratings systems that have currently posted ratings for week 1.
There are some interesting things here.
Currently 6 games are showing over 70% chances of covering. The top one is 80.5% chance by Georgia southern, a lower level power house that is moving up this year. So I am not sure if you can trust the estimates for a team with no games. Although my guess is they cover a 23 point spread. Both North Texas and Rice were underestimated last year so if they build on that they could be a good bet.
12 of the top 16 games are picking road teams.
I will update again for the final numbers.

 home              p(win) p(cover) road               p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

 NC St.           0.67126  0.19422 Georgia Southern  0.32874  0.80578  23.0   7.8096
 Texas            0.79531  0.23815 North Texas       0.20469  0.76185  25.5  13.6849
 Mississippi St.  0.98765  0.72237 Southern Miss.    0.01235  0.27763  27.5  37.2956
 UAB              0.30277  0.28168 Troy St.          0.69723  0.71832   1.0  -8.4118
 Notre Dame       0.85190  0.28514 Rice              0.14810  0.71486  26.0  16.8460
 Tennessee        0.46167  0.29038 Utah St.          0.53833  0.70962   7.5  -1.5828
 Nebraska         0.84822  0.30792 Florida Atlantic  0.15178  0.69208  25.0  16.8044
 Georgia          0.53951  0.31158 Clemson           0.46049  0.68842   9.5   1.5959
 Massachusetts    0.09387  0.32082 Boston College    0.90613  0.67918 -14.0 -21.6485
 Colorado         0.39048  0.32369 Colorado St.      0.60952  0.67631   3.0  -4.6515
 Louisville       0.73335  0.67129 Miami (Fla.)      0.26665  0.32871   3.0  10.4119
 Hawaii           0.05556  0.36215 Washington        0.94444  0.63785 -20.0 -25.6868
 USC              0.83614  0.36555 Fresno St.        0.16386  0.63445  21.5  15.9125
 Central Florida  0.56924  0.60569 Penn St.          0.43076  0.39431  -1.5   2.7941
 Kent             0.63736  0.60234 Ohio              0.36264  0.39766   1.5   5.7295
 Miami (Ohio)     0.04891  0.39960 Marshall          0.95109  0.60040 -23.0 -27.1757
 Boise St.        0.36973  0.59896 Mississippi       0.63027  0.40104  -9.5  -5.4171
 Tulsa            0.48389  0.40190 Tulane            0.51611  0.59810   3.5  -0.6793
 Oklahoma St.     0.20155  0.59790 Florida St.       0.79845  0.40210 -17.5 -13.4977
 South Carolina   0.69534  0.40291 Texas A&M         0.30466  0.59709  12.0   8.1025
 Navy             0.16829  0.58848 Ohio St.          0.83171  0.41152 -19.0 -15.4129
 Auburn           0.92932  0.58605 Arkansas          0.07068  0.41395  20.5  24.0560
 Wisconsin        0.43379  0.58300 LSU               0.56621  0.41700  -6.0  -2.6583
 Connecticut      0.19889  0.58205 BYU               0.80111  0.41795 -17.0 -13.6550
 Northwestern     0.84228  0.58136 California        0.15772  0.41864  13.0  16.3436
 Baylor           0.96304  0.43187 SMU               0.03696  0.56813  32.0  29.1963
 New Mexico       0.72345  0.56157 UTEP              0.27655  0.43843   7.0   9.4752
 Purdue           0.73274  0.44150 Western Mich.     0.26726  0.55850  12.5  10.1057
 Florida          0.98747  0.55624 Idaho             0.01253  0.44376  34.5  36.8245
 Arizona          0.91237  0.45058 UNLV              0.08763  0.54942  24.0  21.9856
 Michigan         0.97561  0.45339 Appalachian St.   0.02439  0.54661  35.0  33.0367
 Oklahoma         0.98811  0.53579 Louisiana Tech    0.01189  0.46421  38.0  39.5728
 Washington St.   0.71597  0.53186 Rutgers           0.28403  0.46814   8.0   9.3027
 Houston          0.76522  0.46847 Texas-San Antonio 0.23478  0.53153  13.0  11.7181
 Vanderbilt       0.86832  0.52730 Temple            0.13168  0.47270  17.0  18.1087
 West Va.         0.04639  0.51943 Alabama           0.95361  0.48057 -27.5 -26.7255
 Virginia         0.07286  0.51761 UCLA              0.92714  0.48239 -24.5 -23.7783
 Western Kentucky 0.30915  0.48575 Bowling Green     0.69085  0.51425  -7.5  -8.0792
 Louisiana-Monroe 0.40794  0.49187 Wake Forest       0.59206  0.50813  -3.5  -3.8359

travels

Day 1 had snow.  Day 2 had perfectly clear weather.  Today we hiked through rain most of the day.  We started this morning leaving Chamonix France and hiked a pass into Switzerland.  Raining and often very cold but ended better as we got into a pine forest.