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NCAA Week 5

Last week was poor all around. The NCAA top 5 were 2-3 and the top game last. This lowers the season total to 11-9 for the top 5 and 2-2 for the top game. This week the top 5 are all road underdogs.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

UNLV                 0.56294  0.36489 Fresno St.           0.43706  0.63511  10.5   3.2252
USC                  0.58522  0.38720 Arizona St.          0.41478  0.61280  10.5   4.4704
Washington           0.44890  0.39312 Stanford             0.55110  0.60688   3.0  -2.5971
Air Force            0.53996  0.39479 Navy                 0.46004  0.60521   7.5   2.0168
NC St.               0.59860  0.40280 Wake Forest          0.40140  0.59720  10.5   5.2902
East Carolina        0.63966  0.58056 Central Florida      0.36034  0.41944   3.5   7.7982
Duke                 0.63944  0.57864 Virginia             0.36056  0.42136   3.5   7.5828
California           0.46052  0.42248 Utah                 0.53948  0.57752   2.0  -2.0143
New Mexico           0.59652  0.42415 San Jose St.         0.40348  0.57585   9.0   5.0663
Mississippi          0.68360  0.42609 Memphis              0.31640  0.57391  14.5  10.6346
Texas Tech           0.81321  0.43009 Kansas               0.18679  0.56991  28.5  24.8164
Louisiana Tech       0.79197  0.56732 UTEP                 0.20803  0.43268  18.5  22.1402
South Alabama        0.25826  0.55865 San Diego St.        0.74174  0.44135 -19.0 -15.8824
BYU                  0.51264  0.44466 Toledo               0.48736  0.55534   3.5   0.6458
Hawaii               0.38342  0.44668 Nevada               0.61658  0.55332  -3.5  -6.2597
Auburn               0.82606  0.44890 Louisiana-Monroe     0.17394  0.55110  32.5  29.5863
Florida Intl.        0.41465  0.54852 Florida Atlantic     0.58535  0.45148  -7.0  -4.4896
Miami (Ohio)         0.40554  0.45233 Ohio                 0.59446  0.54767  -2.5  -4.9354
Georgia              0.38848  0.45276 Tennessee            0.61152  0.54724  -3.5  -5.9231
North Texas          0.28278  0.54621 Middle Tenn.         0.71722  0.45379 -15.5 -13.1367
Boston College       0.73749  0.45473 Buffalo              0.26251  0.54527  17.5  15.1526
Oklahoma St.         0.59243  0.54465 Texas                0.40757  0.45535   2.5   4.7394
Idaho                0.25926  0.45580 Troy St.             0.74074  0.54420 -13.5 -15.8479
Iowa                 0.68869  0.45609 Northwestern         0.31131  0.54391  13.0  10.7784
New Mexico St.       0.36717  0.45637 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.63283  0.54363  -5.0  -7.2583
Ball St.             0.60936  0.53999 Northern Ill.        0.39064  0.46001   4.0   6.1830
West Va.             0.60468  0.53939 Kansas St.           0.39532  0.46061   3.5   5.5073
TCU                  0.46963  0.53766 Oklahoma             0.53037  0.46234  -3.5  -1.5609
Appalachian St.      0.75470  0.46563 Georgia St.          0.24530  0.53437  18.5  16.7386
Georgia Tech         0.39593  0.53433 Miami (Fla.)         0.60407  0.46567  -7.5  -5.6848
Clemson              0.50423  0.53194 Louisville           0.49577  0.46806  -1.5   0.2278
Syracuse             0.35272  0.53027 Notre Dame           0.64728  0.46973 -10.0  -8.3946
Indiana              0.39957  0.52949 Michigan St.         0.60043  0.47051  -7.0  -5.4491
Southern Miss.       0.79977  0.47240 Rice                 0.20023  0.52760  24.0  22.5723
LSU                  0.69660  0.47263 Missouri             0.30340  0.52737  13.0  11.5933
Central Mich.        0.40732  0.47398 Western Mich.        0.59268  0.52602  -3.5  -4.8170
Washington St.       0.50580  0.52555 Oregon               0.49420  0.47445  -1.0   0.2931
Maryland             0.65678  0.47482 Purdue               0.34322  0.52518  10.0   8.7129
Alabama              0.85816  0.52443 Kentucky             0.14184  0.47557  35.0  36.3345
Boise St.            0.77248  0.47621 Utah St.             0.22752  0.52379  20.0  18.7797
Houston              0.83179  0.51697 Connecticut          0.16821  0.48303  28.0  28.9004
UCLA                 0.71140  0.48359 Arizona              0.28860  0.51641  13.5  12.6652
Temple               0.69938  0.48491 SMU                  0.30062  0.51509  12.5  11.7311
Nebraska             0.79371  0.51377 Illinois             0.20629  0.48623  21.0  21.7115
Vanderbilt           0.33362  0.51319 Florida              0.66638  0.48681 -10.0  -9.3288
Ohio St.             0.85963  0.48876 Rutgers              0.14037  0.51124  38.5  37.8687
Charlotte            0.35418  0.51038 Old Dominion         0.64582  0.48962  -8.5  -7.9724
Florida St.          0.68245  0.48975 North Carolina       0.31755  0.51025  11.0  10.4773
Kent                 0.36366  0.49133 Akron                0.63634  0.50867  -7.0  -7.4440
Colorado St.         0.63064  0.50825 Wyoming              0.36936  0.49175   6.5   6.9120
South Carolina       0.23787  0.49221 Texas A&M            0.76213  0.50779 -17.5 -17.9060
Colorado             0.76093  0.49244 Oregon St.           0.23907  0.50756  18.0  17.6095
Michigan             0.67458  0.49252 Wisconsin            0.32542  0.50748  10.5  10.1109
Bowling Green        0.55384  0.50335 Eastern Mich.        0.44616  0.49665   3.0   3.1971
Penn St.             0.56059  0.50223 Minnesota            0.43941  0.49777   3.0   3.1133
Massachusetts        0.44974  0.49813 Tulane               0.55026  0.50187  -2.5  -2.5959
Iowa St.             0.24766  0.50036 Baylor               0.75234  0.49964 -16.5 -16.4814
Cincinnati           0.43810   .      South Florida        0.56190   .         .   -3.1457
Pittsburgh           0.73154   .      Marshall             0.26846   .         .   15.350

NFL Week 4

Last week was 1-2 with the top game being the lone winner. For the season the top 3 are 4-5 and the top game is 2-1. The top 3 games are all 60%+ this week. We’ll see how that works out.

 home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)   line    lineavg

 Minnesota       0.69223    0.62732   N.Y. Giants    0.30777    0.37268    4.0    10.3304
 Tampa Bay       0.33895    0.39157   Denver         0.66105    0.60843   -3.0    -8.3285
 New England     0.68237    0.60142   Buffalo        0.31763    0.39858    4.5     9.2081
 San Francisco   0.52269    0.58688   Dallas         0.47731    0.41312   -3.0     1.0272
 Pittsburgh      0.55153    0.43031   Kansas City    0.44847    0.56969    5.5     2.3281
 San Diego       0.64707    0.56938   New Orleans    0.35293    0.43062    4.0     7.2038
 Washington      0.61629    0.45645   Cleveland      0.38371    0.54355    7.5     5.5149
 Baltimore       0.60622    0.53313   Oakland        0.39378    0.46687    3.5     5.0093
 Houston         0.66171    0.53309   Tennessee      0.33829    0.46691    6.5     7.9987
 Cincinnati      0.62071    0.47371   Miami          0.37929    0.52629    7.0     5.7961
 Arizona         0.67886    0.52364   Los Angeles    0.32114    0.47636    8.0     9.0720
 Chicago         0.45519    0.52098   Detroit        0.54481    0.47902   -3.0    -2.0466
 Jacksonville    0.42880    0.48346   Indianapolis   0.57120    0.51654   -2.5    -3.2411
 Atlanta         0.42064    0.48522   Carolina       0.57936    0.51478   -3.0    -3.6699
 N.Y. Jets       0.46171    0.49463   Seattle        0.53829    0.50537   -1.5    -1.7431

NCAA Week 4

last week the top 3 went 3-2 and the top game last. For the season the top 5 games are 9-6, the top game 2-1. That doesn’t necessarily look great with small numbers but it is 60%. For a whole season that would be a great record.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Kentucky             0.43411  0.38935 South Carolina       0.56589  0.61065   2.5  -3.4473
Notre Dame           0.74657  0.40214 Duke                 0.25343  0.59786  21.0  15.8558
South Florida        0.48102  0.59319 Florida St.          0.51898  0.40681  -6.0  -0.9919
UTEP                 0.26012  0.40700 Southern Miss.       0.73988  0.59300 -10.5 -15.4530
Virginia             0.35407  0.40768 Central Mich.        0.64593  0.59232  -3.5  -8.8538
Purdue               0.52969  0.41232 Nevada               0.47031  0.58768   6.0   1.4921
Western Mich.        0.68958  0.58052 Georgia Southern     0.31042  0.41948   7.0  11.3165
Iowa St.             0.54476  0.42045 San Jose St.         0.45524  0.57955   6.5   2.3189
Texas St.            0.16798  0.57771 Houston              0.83202  0.42229 -34.5 -30.1257
SMU                  0.26471  0.57737 TCU                  0.73529  0.42263 -20.5 -16.1162
Texas A&M            0.55482  0.43135 Arkansas             0.44518  0.56865   6.5   2.8770
Western Kentucky     0.68646  0.56742 Vanderbilt           0.31354  0.43258   7.5  11.0964
Middle Tenn.         0.52299  0.43498 Louisiana Tech       0.47701  0.56502   4.5   1.1647
Oregon               0.61971  0.43781 Colorado             0.38029  0.56219  10.5   6.9946
Buffalo              0.26845  0.43955 Army                 0.73155  0.56045 -13.5 -17.2177
Massachusetts        0.24001  0.55660 Mississippi St.      0.75999  0.44340 -21.5 -18.3952
UCLA                 0.39335  0.44794 Stanford             0.60665  0.55206  -3.0  -5.7025
Florida Intl.        0.42692  0.54692 Central Florida      0.57308  0.45308  -6.5  -3.9748
UNLV                 0.69933  0.45326 Idaho                0.30067  0.54674  14.5  12.0383
Auburn               0.47384  0.54300 LSU                  0.52616  0.45700  -3.5  -1.3207
West Va.             0.59368  0.45903 BYU                  0.40632  0.54097   7.0   4.9053
Akron                0.42563  0.54008 Appalachian St.      0.57437  0.45992  -6.0  -3.9168
Indiana              0.60770  0.46452 Wake Forest          0.39230  0.53548   7.5   5.6899
Alabama              0.88161  0.53436 Kent                 0.11839  0.46564  44.0  45.9420
Temple               0.82529  0.53273 Charlotte            0.17471  0.46727  27.0  28.8183
Minnesota            0.73263  0.46738 Colorado St.         0.26737  0.53262  16.5  14.8017
Georgia Tech         0.35564  0.52953 Clemson              0.64436  0.47047  -9.5  -7.9772
Fresno St.           0.30249  0.52888 Tulsa                0.69751  0.47112 -14.0 -12.4189
North Carolina       0.65241  0.52855 Pittsburgh           0.34759  0.47145   7.0   8.4670
Rice                 0.65482  0.52852 North Texas          0.34518  0.47148   7.0   8.4325
Troy St.             0.78596  0.52756 New Mexico St.       0.21404  0.47244  20.0  21.4847
Marshall             0.22236  0.52634 Louisville           0.77764  0.47366 -26.0 -24.3066
Tulane               0.61179  0.52191 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.38821  0.47809   5.0   6.1591
Eastern Mich.        0.43100  0.47821 Wyoming              0.56900  0.52179  -2.5  -3.6298
Michigan             0.76380  0.48160 Penn St.             0.23620  0.51840  19.0  18.0424
Cincinnati           0.76600  0.51818 Miami (Ohio)         0.23400  0.48182  17.5  18.4542
Mississippi          0.64196  0.51749 Georgia              0.35804  0.48251   7.0   7.9099
Tennessee            0.63579  0.51693 Florida              0.36421  0.48307   6.5   7.3625
Northwestern         0.37682  0.51483 Nebraska             0.62318  0.48517  -7.5  -6.7303
Utah St.             0.45452  0.51276 Air Force            0.54548  0.48724  -3.0  -2.3461
Arizona              0.30309  0.48776 Washington           0.69691  0.51224 -11.0 -11.6285
Michigan St.         0.59443  0.48983 Wisconsin            0.40557  0.51017   5.5   4.9793
Memphis              0.75054  0.50806 Bowling Green        0.24946  0.49194  16.5  16.9275
Virginia Tech        0.69295  0.49462 East Carolina        0.30705  0.50538  11.5  11.2261
Connecticut          0.57015  0.49542 Syracuse             0.42985  0.50458   4.0   3.7586
Oregon St.           0.29509  0.50431 Boise St.            0.70491  0.49569 -13.0 -12.7696
Arizona St.          0.57306  0.49607 California           0.42694  0.50393   4.0   3.7992
Rutgers              0.28752  0.49708 Iowa                 0.71248  0.50292 -13.0 -13.1531
Utah                 0.56144  0.50245 USC                  0.43856  0.49755   3.0   3.1228
Florida Atlantic     0.43451  0.50231 Ball St.             0.56549  0.49769  -3.5  -3.3825
Old Dominion         0.56494  0.49805 Texas-San Antonio    0.43506  0.50195   3.5   3.3993
Baylor               0.63743  0.50084 Oklahoma St.         0.36257  0.49916   7.5   7.5433

NFL Week 3

Last week the top 3 went 1-2, to lower the season total to 3-3. The top game is 1-1.
I post these numbers on Thursday mornings and the lines correspond to the updated line of the prediction tracker at that given time. Last week I mentioned that the top 8 games all look favorable. On Sunday morning I looked at those games again and was surprised to see that most of them had had large line moves to make the games less desirable. In other words the lines moved considerably in the direction of the system average. One game moved 2 points from the midweek line to the sunday morning line. This is something that was noticeable last season. The midweek line moves off the opening line but then at the end of the week it actually gets bet back down towards the opening line. So you end up with the midweek line being worse than both the opening and closing line.

 home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)   line    lineavg

 New England    0.58666    0.58666   Houston         0.41334    0.41334    0.0    4.10686
 Indianapolis   0.48493    0.42120   San Diego       0.51507    0.57880    3.0   -0.69228
 Seattle        0.60832    0.42214   San Francisco   0.39168    0.57786    9.5    5.57185
 Tampa Bay      0.55637    0.43900   Los Angeles     0.44363    0.56100    5.5    2.63908
 Jacksonville   0.42406    0.44495   Baltimore       0.57594    0.55505   -1.0   -3.54951
 Cincinnati     0.51306    0.44694   Denver          0.48694    0.55306    3.0    0.58843
 Dallas         0.59780    0.44826   Chicago         0.40220    0.55174    7.0    4.61480
 Miami          0.64972    0.45016   Cleveland       0.35028    0.54984    9.5    7.24916
 Buffalo        0.38884    0.46162   Arizona         0.61116    0.53838   -3.5   -5.24493
 New Orleans    0.53098    0.46411   Atlanta         0.46902    0.53589    3.0    1.38903
 Kansas City    0.59491    0.53205   N.Y. Jets       0.40509    0.46795    3.0    4.46936
 Philadelphia   0.45642    0.53096   Pittsburgh      0.54358    0.46904   -3.5   -2.04898
 N.Y. Giants    0.62284    0.53087   Washington      0.37716    0.46913    4.5    5.91657
 Carolina       0.62729    0.48167   Minnesota       0.37271    0.51833    7.0    6.15976
 Green Bay      0.64145    0.48715   Detroit         0.35855    0.51285    7.5    6.91349
 Tennessee      0.52186    0.49075   Oakland         0.47814    0.50925    1.5    1.05445

NCAA Week 3

Week 1 got off to a strong 4-1 week. But last week a 1-4 week gave it all back. The top game was the lone winner and is now 2-0 on the season. While the top 5 drop to 5-5.
Correction: Last week was actually 2-3, so the corrected record is 6-4.

 home                  phwin  phcover road                  prwin  prcover  line  lineavg

 Bowling Green        0.54427 0.65350 Middle Tenn.         0.45573 0.34650  -6.5   2.3729
 Tulane               0.28642 0.37097 Navy                 0.71358 0.62903  -6.0 -13.0591
 Massachusetts        0.58819 0.61447 Florida Intl.        0.41181 0.38553  -1.5   4.6578
 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.45741 0.40291 South Alabama        0.54259 0.59709   3.0  -2.2402
 Rice                 0.18814 0.58663 Baylor               0.81186 0.41337 -31.0 -26.1100
 Syracuse             0.32653 0.58478 South Florida        0.67347 0.41522 -14.5  -9.9997
 BYU                  0.52475 0.58193 UCLA                 0.47525 0.41807  -3.0   1.2612
 Kentucky             0.73269 0.41889 New Mexico St.       0.26731 0.58111  20.0  15.4981
 Toledo               0.81066 0.58008 Fresno St.           0.18934 0.41992  20.5  24.8153
 California           0.44674 0.57903 Texas                0.55326 0.42097  -7.0  -2.7989
 Central Mich.        0.75817 0.57771 UNLV                 0.24183 0.42229  13.0  17.0301
 Oklahoma             0.40219 0.42825 Ohio St.             0.59781 0.57175  -1.5  -5.4081
 UTEP                 0.37072 0.43164 Army                 0.62928 0.56836  -3.5  -7.1021
 Kansas St.           0.77614 0.43194 Florida Atlantic     0.22386 0.56806  23.0  19.4240
 Michigan             0.75037 0.43945 Colorado             0.24963 0.56055  20.0  16.7771
 Texas Tech           0.63518 0.44020 Louisiana Tech       0.36482 0.55980  10.5   7.3923
 Texas-San Antonio    0.20674 0.44670 Arizona St.          0.79326 0.55330 -20.0 -22.9450
 Utah St.             0.61757 0.44720 Arkansas St.         0.38243 0.55280   9.0   6.2831
 Appalachian St.      0.48466 0.55146 Miami (Fla.)         0.51534 0.44854  -3.5  -0.7988
 South Carolina       0.51791 0.44965 East Carolina        0.48209 0.55035   3.5   0.9135
 Cincinnati           0.33004 0.44971 Houston              0.66996 0.55029  -7.0  -9.5824
 Notre Dame           0.60581 0.45460 Michigan St.         0.39419 0.54540   8.0   5.6498
 Charlotte            0.48708 0.54422 Eastern Mich.        0.51292 0.45578  -3.0  -0.6750
 Marshall             0.73927 0.45780 Akron                0.26073 0.54220  17.5  15.3151
 Miami (Ohio)         0.22488 0.46134 Western Kentucky     0.77512 0.53866 -17.5 -19.5348
 Illinois             0.40551 0.46288 Western Mich.        0.59449 0.53712  -3.0  -4.8620
 LSU                  0.70583 0.46522 Mississippi St.      0.29417 0.53478  14.0  12.2237
 Florida              0.85409 0.46822 North Texas          0.14591 0.53178  36.0  34.3044
 Nevada               0.70665 0.52730 Buffalo              0.29335 0.47270  11.0  12.4051
 Northwestern         0.59227 0.52666 Duke                 0.40773 0.47334   3.5   4.8712
 Missouri             0.40278 0.52647 Georgia              0.59722 0.47353  -6.5  -5.1410
 Memphis              0.78693 0.52362 Kansas               0.21307 0.47638  20.5  21.7810
 Mississippi          0.29849 0.47787 Alabama              0.70151 0.52213 -11.0 -12.1535
 Washington St.       0.80203 0.47900 Idaho                0.19797 0.52100  24.5  23.3923
 Stanford             0.67244 0.52055 USC                  0.32756 0.47945   8.5   9.5231
 Rutgers              0.58687 0.47980 New Mexico           0.41313 0.52020   5.5   4.4824
 Southern Miss.       0.66848 0.48068 Troy St.             0.33152 0.51932  10.5   9.5119
 TCU                  0.80372 0.48136 Iowa St.             0.19628 0.51864  24.0  23.0426
 Auburn               0.55101 0.48181 Texas A&M            0.44899 0.51819   3.5   2.5851
 Oklahoma St.         0.60183 0.51555 Pittsburgh           0.39817 0.48445   4.5   5.2790
 Penn St.             0.64269 0.48453 Temple               0.35731 0.51547   8.5   7.7195
 Wisconsin            0.84819 0.48466 Georgia St.          0.15181 0.51534  34.0  33.1731
 San Jose St.         0.27767 0.48524 Utah                 0.72233 0.51476 -13.0 -13.7604
 Georgia Tech         0.63076 0.51118 Vanderbilt           0.36924 0.48882   6.5   7.0704
 Tennessee            0.82166 0.49024 Ohio                 0.17834 0.50976  27.5  26.9811
 Northern Ill.        0.31628 0.49323 San Diego St.        0.68372 0.50677 -10.5 -10.8547
 Connecticut          0.57983 0.49477 Virginia             0.42017 0.50523   4.5   4.2287
 NC St.               0.78444 0.49481 Old Dominion         0.21556 0.50519  21.5  21.2218
 Nebraska             0.55304 0.49489 Oregon               0.44696 0.50511   3.0   2.7387
 Arkansas             0.83197 0.49512 Texas St.            0.16803 0.50488  31.0  30.7254
 Louisville           0.47464 0.50430 Florida St.          0.52536 0.49570  -1.5  -1.2829
 Arizona              0.80580 0.50428 Hawaii               0.19420 0.49572  23.5  23.7231
 Georgia Southern     0.82012 0.50311 Louisiana-Monroe     0.17988 0.49689  26.0  26.1622
 Central Florida      0.34833 0.49914 Maryland             0.65167 0.50086  -8.5  -8.5448
 Virginia Tech        0.61379 0.49989 Boston College       0.38621 0.50011   6.0   5.9943

NFL Week 2

Last week the top 3 games went 2-1. The top game 1-0. The two games I said were questionable due to the quarterback situations were the two winners. This week will be interesting. The top 8 games all have favorable probabilities.

  home           phwin    phcover   road             prwin    prcover    line    lineavg

  Houston       0.47027   0.40571   Kansas City     0.52973   0.59429     3.0    -1.3286
  Minnesota     0.53822   0.59215   Green Bay       0.46178   0.40785    -2.5     1.7023
  Los Angeles   0.34562   0.41216   Seattle         0.65438   0.58784    -3.5    -7.5649
  New England   0.70073   0.58448   Miami           0.29927   0.41552     6.5    10.3556
  Denver        0.67879   0.56976   Indianapolis    0.32121   0.43024     6.0     9.2872
  Arizona       0.68746   0.56767   Tampa Bay       0.31254   0.43233     6.5     9.6029
  Chicago       0.50035   0.43441   Philadelphia    0.49965   0.56559     3.0     0.0157
  Detroit       0.67665   0.56369   Tennessee       0.32335   0.43631     6.0     8.9171
  Carolina      0.70992   0.45143   San Francisco   0.29008   0.54857    13.5    11.2655
  Cleveland     0.39369   0.54325   Baltimore       0.60631   0.45675    -7.0    -5.0215
  Buffalo       0.51468   0.53712   N.Y. Jets       0.48532   0.46288    -1.0     0.6504
  San Diego     0.58838   0.52486   Jacksonville    0.41162   0.47514     3.0     4.1355
  Oakland       0.61959   0.52482   Atlanta         0.38041   0.47518     4.5     5.6114
  Washington    0.57556   0.52132   Dallas          0.42444   0.47868     2.5     3.4588
  N.Y. Giants   0.58081   0.48105   New Orleans     0.41919   0.51895     4.5     3.6592
  Pittsburgh    0.58029   0.51510   Cincinnati      0.41971   0.48490     3.0     3.6775

NCAA week 2

The season start out well. The top game was a winner and the top 5 went 4-1.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg
Navy                 0.72828  0.68632 Connecticut          0.27172  0.31368   3.5  14.5859
Notre Dame           0.79499  0.38337 Nevada               0.20501  0.61663  28.0  21.7368
Oregon               0.77373  0.39247 Virginia             0.22627  0.60753  24.5  18.8103
Duke                 0.67938  0.59875 Wake Forest          0.32062  0.40125   5.0  10.1490
South Alabama        0.35676  0.59415 Georgia Southern     0.64324  0.40585 -13.5  -8.2780
Alabama              0.80629  0.40964 Western Kentucky     0.19371  0.59036  29.5  24.5160
Air Force            0.74442  0.41097 Georgia St.          0.25558  0.58903  20.5  15.7998
Oklahoma             0.86935  0.41781 Louisiana-Monroe     0.13065  0.58219  46.5  41.7070
Oklahoma St.         0.75748  0.41933 Central Mich.        0.24252  0.58067  21.0  16.8392
Syracuse             0.31237  0.57683 Louisville           0.68763  0.42317 -14.5 -10.5988
Washington           0.84729  0.42886 Idaho                0.15271  0.57114  37.5  33.5345
Kansas               0.48593  0.42914 Ohio                 0.51407  0.57086   3.0  -0.7284
Army                 0.70004  0.57005 Rice                 0.29996  0.42995   8.5  12.2798
Massachusetts        0.29448  0.56978 Boston College       0.70552  0.43022 -17.0 -13.1198
Texas                0.81677  0.43270 UTEP                 0.18323  0.56730  30.0  26.3322
USC                  0.70651  0.43794 Utah St.             0.29349  0.56206  16.0  12.6942
Clemson              0.84791  0.44085 Troy St.             0.15209  0.55915  36.0  32.8065
Purdue               0.43259  0.55139 Cincinnati           0.56741  0.44861  -6.0  -3.4137
Missouri             0.79165  0.44862 Eastern Mich.        0.20835  0.55138  25.0  22.2231
Auburn               0.75545  0.44907 Arkansas St.         0.24455  0.55093  20.0  17.3019
UCLA                 0.80634  0.44910 UNLV                 0.19366  0.55090  26.5  23.8234
Florida              0.73173  0.45492 Kentucky             0.26827  0.54508  16.5  14.2247
Iowa                 0.75937  0.54503 Iowa St.             0.24063  0.45497  15.0  17.3264
Baylor               0.83218  0.45813 SMU                  0.16782  0.54187  32.0  29.7113
Indiana              0.74826  0.46040 Ball St.             0.25174  0.53960  18.0  15.9797
Vanderbilt           0.55063  0.46276 Middle Tenn.         0.44937  0.53724   4.5   2.5971
Utah                 0.59960  0.53251 BYU                  0.40040  0.46749   3.5   5.1226
Nebraska             0.79985  0.46924 Wyoming              0.20015  0.53076  24.5  22.8866
Miami (Fla.)         0.80154  0.46953 Florida Atlantic     0.19846  0.53047  24.5  22.9176
Ohio St.             0.82515  0.47272 Tulsa                0.17485  0.52728  28.5  27.0760
Wisconsin            0.80181  0.47562 Akron                0.19819  0.52438  24.0  22.7469
TCU                  0.61898  0.47569 Arkansas             0.38102  0.52431   7.5   6.2757
Boise St.            0.65677  0.47714 Washington St.       0.34323  0.52286  10.5   9.2585
Michigan             0.85302  0.47977 Central Florida      0.14698  0.52023  35.5  34.4102
Colorado St.         0.68868  0.51926 Texas-San Antonio    0.31132  0.48074  10.0  10.9885
Illinois             0.36082  0.51886 North Carolina       0.63918  0.48114  -8.5  -7.5428
San Diego St.        0.61293  0.48140 California           0.38707  0.51860   7.0   6.0453
Florida Intl.        0.33697  0.51710 Maryland             0.66303  0.48290 -10.0  -9.1270
New Mexico St.       0.28940  0.48488 New Mexico           0.71060  0.51512 -12.5 -13.3127
South Florida        0.71968  0.48575 Northern Ill.        0.28032  0.51425  14.5  13.7537
Mississippi St.      0.63785  0.51245 South Carolina       0.36215  0.48755   7.0   7.6470
Arizona St.          0.57037  0.51190 Texas Tech           0.42963  0.48810   3.0   3.5992
Appalachian St.      0.78407  0.48834 Old Dominion         0.21593  0.51166  21.0  20.3976
East Carolina        0.42300  0.50999 NC St.               0.57700  0.49001  -4.5  -3.9921
Tennessee            0.69575  0.49661 Virginia Tech        0.30425  0.50339  11.5  11.3292
Pittsburgh           0.60843  0.50184 Penn St.             0.39157  0.49816   5.5   5.591

NFL Week 1

Here are probabilities for the opening week of the NFL season. I think the top two games are questionable due to quarterback situations. Minnesota has not announced their starter yet and Denver will have a new starter.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road           p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

 Tennessee       0.34540    0.38928   Minnesota     0.65460    0.61072    -2.5    -7.9838
 Denver          0.50213    0.56817   Carolina      0.49787    0.43183    -3.0     0.0954
 Kansas City     0.68315    0.56182   San Diego     0.31685    0.43818     6.5     9.3291
 Indianapolis    0.51483    0.43974   Detroit       0.48517    0.56026     3.5     0.6851
 Seattle         0.72572    0.55516   Miami         0.27428    0.44484    10.0    12.5633
 Philadelphia    0.62109    0.53701   Cleveland     0.37891    0.46299     4.0     5.6502
 New Orleans     0.49674    0.46334   Oakland       0.50326    0.53666     1.5    -0.1456
 Baltimore       0.53324    0.46634   Buffalo       0.46676    0.53366     3.0     1.4906
 Jacksonville    0.37746    0.46848   Green Bay     0.62254    0.53152    -4.5    -5.9620
 Arizona         0.59759    0.46881   New England   0.40241    0.53119     6.0     4.5783
 San Francisco   0.47035    0.52668   Los Angeles   0.52965    0.47332    -2.5    -1.3162
 Houston         0.60561    0.47466   Chicago       0.39439    0.52534     6.0     4.8718
 Dallas          0.52463    0.52463   N.Y. Giants   0.47537    0.47537     0.0     1.0976
 Atlanta         0.58938    0.52454   Tampa Bay     0.41062    0.47546     3.0     4.0974
 N.Y. Jets       0.46790    0.52389   Cincinnati    0.53210    0.47611    -2.5    -1.4341
 Washington      0.43791    0.50393   Pittsburgh    0.56209    0.49607    -3.0    -2.8235

NCAA Week 1

Here are game probabilities for week 1 as of Thursday morning. As usual I will follow the top 5 picks from NCAA and top 3 from NFL. These numbers are based on the distribution of the computer predictions and the accuracy of the system average in the past. This week the top 4 games are all road underdogs.

 home                  phwin  phcover road                  prwin  prcover  line  lineavg

 Arkansas St.         0.42968 0.35250 Toledo               0.57032 0.64750   4.5  -3.6739
 Florida              0.82749 0.36677 Massachusetts        0.17251 0.63323  36.5  28.7893
 Ohio St.             0.78381 0.37311 Bowling Green        0.21619 0.62689  28.0  20.8951
 Arkansas             0.77625 0.38512 Louisiana Tech       0.22375 0.61488  26.0  19.7000
 Western Kentucky     0.78887 0.61321 Rice                 0.21113 0.38679  16.5  23.2478
 Hawaii               0.19574 0.39864 California           0.80426 0.60136 -19.5 -25.4180
 Temple               0.77557 0.58720 Army                 0.22443 0.41280  15.0  19.7144
 Wisconsin            0.39026 0.58507 LSU                  0.60974 0.41493 -10.5  -5.9577
 Kentucky             0.53691 0.41572 Southern Miss.       0.46309 0.58428   6.5   1.9530
 Houston              0.35283 0.57329 Oklahoma             0.64717 0.42671 -12.0  -8.1614
 Washington           0.80081 0.43078 Rutgers              0.19919 0.56922  26.5  22.8512
 Colorado             0.59456 0.43339 Colorado St.         0.40544 0.56661   8.5   5.0185
 Stanford             0.77074 0.56469 Kansas St.           0.22926 0.43531  15.0  18.3111
 UTEP                 0.61303 0.43790 New Mexico St.       0.38697 0.56210   9.0   5.8712
 Florida St.          0.52271 0.43866 Mississippi          0.47729 0.56134   4.5   1.2064
 North Texas          0.37669 0.55337 SMU                  0.62331 0.44663  -9.5  -6.7147
 Michigan             0.86464 0.44837 Hawaii               0.13536 0.55163  40.5  37.7057
 Arizona              0.44961 0.44961 BYU                  0.55039 0.55039   0.0  -2.5456
 Georgia              0.50248 0.45371 North Carolina       0.49752 0.54629   2.5   0.1264
 Mississippi St.      0.83651 0.54515 South Alabama        0.16349 0.45485  28.5  30.9973
 Iowa                 0.83940 0.54346 Miami (Ohio)         0.16060 0.45654  27.5  29.7578
 Vanderbilt           0.54506 0.45700 South Carolina       0.45494 0.54300   4.5   2.3033
 Ohio                 0.77316 0.46163 Texas St.            0.22684 0.53837  21.0  19.0102
 Tennessee            0.76479 0.46662 Appalachian St.      0.23521 0.53338  20.5  18.7059
 Nebraska             0.82211 0.46792 Fresno St.           0.17789 0.53208  28.0  26.3347
 Texas                0.40221 0.46801 Notre Dame           0.59779 0.53199  -3.5  -5.1309
 West Va.             0.69073 0.53161 Missouri             0.30927 0.46839   9.5  11.1225
 Texas A&M            0.52914 0.46858 UCLA                 0.47086 0.53142   3.0   1.4431
 Auburn               0.33714 0.46921 Clemson              0.66286 0.53079  -7.5  -9.0667
 Tulsa                0.56922 0.47019 San Jose St.         0.43078 0.52981   5.0   3.5085
 Florida Intl.        0.30238 0.47219 Indiana              0.69762 0.52781 -10.5 -11.9655
 Wyoming              0.30528 0.47484 Northern Ill.        0.69472 0.52516 -10.0 -11.2730
 Minnesota            0.72226 0.52385 Oregon St.           0.27774 0.47615  12.5  13.7279
 Penn St.             0.79886 0.52306 Kent                 0.20114 0.47694  21.5  22.7061
 Alabama              0.70930 0.51921 USC                  0.29070 0.48079  11.5  12.4766
 Northwestern         0.58223 0.48534 Western Mich.        0.41777 0.51466   5.0   4.2574
 Georgia St.          0.59772 0.51376 Ball St.             0.40228 0.48624   4.5   5.2110
 Boston College       0.42909 0.48804 Georgia Tech         0.57091 0.51196  -3.0  -3.5967
 Louisville           0.86073 0.48928 Charlotte            0.13927 0.51072  38.5  37.9027
 Wake Forest          0.74857 0.49704 Tulane               0.25143 0.50296  16.5  16.3467
 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.22439 0.49858 Boise St.            0.77561 0.50142 -20.0 -20.0764

NCAA opening game

We have one game being played a week before the rest of the league kicks off. And it is being played in Australia. There is no telling how such a unusual location will effect the outcome but I have California with a 62% chance of covering the 19.5 point spread. So even at -20 it is a good deal.