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NCAA week 9

Last week was a bad 1-4 in the top 5. Perhaps you start looking at opposites as the top pick is 2-5 and the top five a lowly 12-23 for the season.

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road              p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Hawaii              0.35594  0.39854 Nevada           0.64406  0.60146  -2.5  -7.7792
  Arkansas            0.76685  0.40098 UAB              0.23315  0.59902  24.5  19.0048
  Navy                0.58290  0.40755 San Jose St.     0.41710  0.59245   9.0   4.2420
  Boise St.           0.55639  0.42019 BYU              0.44361  0.57981   7.0   2.8799
  Washington St.      0.37738  0.42195 Arizona          0.62262  0.57805  -2.5  -6.5295
  Wisconsin           0.61476  0.42439 Maryland         0.38524  0.57561  10.0   6.0894
  Utah St.            0.78809  0.57516 UNLV             0.21191  0.42484  17.0  20.9606
  Missouri            0.81563  0.57086 Vanderbilt       0.18437  0.42914  21.0  24.6496
  Illinois            0.32687  0.42938 Minnesota        0.67313  0.57062  -6.0  -9.5696
  Tennessee           0.27196  0.57032 Alabama          0.72804  0.42968 -17.5 -13.9120
  Kansas St.          0.72299  0.56866 Texas            0.27701  0.43134  10.0  13.5109
  Michigan St.        0.78618  0.56566 Michigan         0.21382  0.43434  17.0  20.3931
  Louisiana-Monroe    0.60050  0.56334 Texas St.        0.39950  0.43666   2.0   5.2260
  Kentucky            0.24270  0.43728 Mississippi St.  0.75730  0.56272 -14.0 -17.2985
  South Alabama       0.75736  0.56181 Troy St.         0.24264  0.43819  14.0  17.2361
  Eastern Mich.       0.24713  0.56141 Northern Ill.    0.75287  0.43859 -19.5 -16.3608
  Miami (Ohio)        0.57472  0.43955 Kent             0.42528  0.56045   7.0   3.8807
  Virginia Tech       0.55642  0.55642 Miami (Fla.)     0.44358  0.44358   0.0   2.8346
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.38015  0.44375 Arkansas St.     0.61985  0.55625  -3.5  -6.3826
  Clemson             0.76214  0.55310 Syracuse         0.23786  0.44690  14.5  17.1799
  LSU                 0.38425  0.44888 Mississippi      0.61575  0.55112  -3.5  -6.0945
  Marshall            0.81901  0.45466 Florida Atlantic 0.18099  0.54534  28.0  25.6494
  Central Florida     0.66499  0.54366 Temple           0.33501  0.45634   7.0   9.2348
  TCU                 0.81379  0.54355 Texas Tech       0.18621  0.45645  22.5  24.7579
  Toledo              0.73037  0.45887 Massachusetts    0.26963  0.54113  16.5  14.3851
  Pittsburgh          0.51906  0.45912 Georgia Tech     0.48094  0.54088   3.0   0.9512
  East Carolina       0.82586  0.46116 Connecticut      0.17414  0.53884  28.5  26.5189
  California          0.25137  0.53709 Oregon           0.74863  0.46291 -18.0 -16.0994
  Washington          0.46381  0.53395 Arizona St.      0.53619  0.46605  -3.5  -1.8063
  Cincinnati          0.70636  0.53288 South Florida    0.29364  0.46712  10.5  12.1646
  Western Mich.       0.66905  0.46852 Ohio             0.33095  0.53148  11.0   9.4104
  Western Kentucky    0.70196  0.53117 Old Dominion     0.29804  0.46883  10.5  12.1174
  Utah                0.50940  0.52940 USC              0.49060  0.47060  -1.0   0.4684
  Buffalo             0.42042  0.52761 Central Mich.    0.57958  0.47239  -5.5  -4.1030
  Georgia St.         0.25849  0.52645 Georgia Southern 0.74151  0.47355 -17.0 -15.6273
  Stanford            0.70306  0.47573 Oregon St.       0.29694  0.52427  13.0  11.7853
  Penn St.            0.28768  0.52292 Ohio St.         0.71232  0.47708 -14.0 -12.8252
  Colorado            0.26088  0.47807 UCLA             0.73912  0.52193 -14.0 -15.1169
  Ball St.            0.49934  0.51909 Akron            0.50066  0.48091  -1.0  -0.0335
  Virginia            0.61406  0.48139 North Carolina   0.38594  0.51861   7.0   6.0538
  Southern Miss.      0.31779  0.48145 Louisiana Tech   0.68221  0.51855  -9.5 -10.4456
  Colorado St.        0.77903  0.51399 Wyoming          0.22097  0.48601  18.5  19.2028
  Texas-San Antonio   0.67800  0.48961 UTEP             0.32200  0.51039  11.0  10.4543
  Auburn              0.77125  0.50971 South Carolina   0.22875  0.49029  18.5  19.0074
  SMU                 0.20833  0.49139 Memphis          0.79167  0.50861 -23.0 -23.4875
  Oklahoma St.        0.51494  0.49553 West Va.         0.48506  0.50447   1.0   0.7696
  Nebraska            0.77598  0.50343 Rutgers          0.22402  0.49657  19.0  19.1752
  Wake Forest         0.28236  0.49663 Boston College   0.71764  0.50337 -13.0 -13.1712
  Rice                0.71936  0.50181 North Texas      0.28064  0.49819  13.5  13.5938

NFL Week 8

The System average had a terrible week ATS, only about 30% in both NCAA and NFL. But somehow the NFL top 3 still managed to pull out 2 out of 3.
The top pick is now 3-3 and the top 3 10-8 for the season.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

 Tampa Bay      0.46823    0.41496   Minnesota      0.53177    0.58504     2.5    -1.4421
 N.Y. Jets      0.47063    0.41667   Buffalo        0.52937    0.58333     2.5    -1.3191
 Pittsburgh     0.36735    0.42531   Indianapolis   0.63265    0.57469    -3.0    -6.5217
 Kansas City    0.69821    0.56599   St. Louis      0.30179    0.43401     7.5    10.6075
 Atlanta        0.36593    0.43445   Detroit        0.63407    0.56555    -3.5    -6.5578
 New Orleans    0.44950    0.44950   Green Bay      0.55050    0.55050     0.0    -2.3290
 Denver         0.65817    0.45128   San Diego      0.34183    0.54872    10.0     7.7852
 Cincinnati     0.46339    0.46339   Baltimore      0.53661    0.53661     0.0    -1.6935
 Cleveland      0.67341    0.52877   Oakland        0.32659    0.47123     7.5     8.8191
 Dallas         0.70512    0.51810   Washington     0.29488    0.48190    10.0    10.8198
 Arizona        0.53811    0.48258   Philadelphia   0.46189    0.51742     2.5     1.7177
 Jacksonville   0.36975    0.51649   Miami          0.63025    0.48351    -7.0    -6.2525
 New England    0.65825    0.51583   Chicago        0.34175    0.48417     7.0     7.7067
 Carolina       0.40717    0.51456   Seattle        0.59283    0.48544    -5.0    -4.3383
 Tennessee      0.47816    0.50045   Houston        0.52184    0.49955    -1.0    -0.9800

NCAA Week 8

The NFL numbers are at least better than 50%. For NCAA the top game is 2-4 while the top 5 has only been 11-19.

home               phwin   phcover  road                  prwin   prcover   line   lineavg

Oregon            0.70305  0.33776  Washington           0.29695  0.66224   21.0   11.9721
Alabama           0.63908  0.37377  Texas A&M            0.36092  0.62623   14.0    7.3817
Florida Intl.     0.24225  0.60339  Marshall             0.75775  0.39661  -22.5  -17.0361
Duke              0.64162  0.59908  Virginia             0.35838  0.40092    2.5    7.6866
West Va.          0.29021  0.40560  Baylor               0.70979  0.59440   -7.5  -12.3861
Ohio St.          0.76238  0.42291  Rutgers              0.23762  0.57709   22.0   17.9077
Bowling Green     0.61931  0.57693  Western Mich.        0.38069  0.42307    2.5    6.6940
Massachusetts     0.68064  0.42599  Eastern Mich.        0.31936  0.57401   14.5   10.5727
Louisiana Tech    0.64884  0.43173  Texas-San Antonio    0.35116  0.56827   12.5    8.7329
Indiana           0.29258  0.56692  Michigan St.         0.70742  0.43308  -15.5  -12.1117
Ohio              0.37946  0.43435  Akron                0.62054  0.56565   -3.0   -6.3268
Oklahoma          0.68090  0.56505  Kansas St.           0.31910  0.43495    7.0   10.3635
Texas Tech        0.67361  0.43549  Kansas               0.32639  0.56451   13.0    9.7113
Boise St.         0.72345  0.43984  Fresno St.           0.27655  0.56016   17.0   13.8642
Florida St.       0.65128  0.44108  Notre Dame           0.34872  0.55892   11.5    8.4321
Boston College    0.35371  0.44165  Clemson              0.64629  0.55835   -5.0   -7.9947
Maryland          0.54483  0.44660  Iowa                 0.45517  0.55340    5.0    2.2784
Houston           0.59153  0.44746  Temple               0.40847  0.55254    7.5    4.7979
Texas             0.66962  0.44964  Iowa St.             0.33038  0.55036   12.0    9.4448
Pittsburgh        0.43075  0.45009  Virginia Tech        0.56925  0.54991   -1.0   -3.5098
California        0.33268  0.45201  UCLA                 0.66732  0.54799   -7.0   -9.4839
Colorado St.      0.56355  0.45403  Utah St.             0.43645  0.54597    5.5    3.1999
North Carolina    0.43517  0.45416  Georgia Tech         0.56483  0.54584   -1.0   -3.3568
Idaho             0.55210  0.45501  New Mexico St.       0.44790  0.54499    5.0    2.6859
Arkansas          0.38230  0.45712  Georgia              0.61770  0.54288   -4.0   -6.1506
LSU               0.70150  0.53821  Kentucky             0.29850  0.46179   10.0   11.9673
South Alabama     0.75968  0.46274  Georgia St.          0.24032  0.53726   20.0   18.0075
Air Force         0.70008  0.53343  New Mexico           0.29992  0.46657   10.0   11.6958
Tulsa             0.49994  0.52908  South Florida        0.50006  0.47092   -1.5   -0.0031
Middle Tenn.      0.50961  0.52889  UAB                  0.49039  0.47111   -1.0    0.4969
Minnesota         0.74463  0.52862  Purdue               0.25537  0.47138   14.0   15.4400
SMU               0.30358  0.52645  Cincinnati           0.69642  0.47355  -13.0  -11.6344
Florida           0.58112  0.47585  Missouri             0.41888  0.52415    5.5    4.2577
Oregon St.        0.42761  0.47625  Utah                 0.57239  0.52375   -2.5   -3.6931
Northern Ill.     0.73077  0.52316  Miami (Ohio)         0.26923  0.47684   13.5   14.7105
Wake Forest       0.40718  0.52237  Syracuse             0.59282  0.47763   -6.0   -4.8604
North Texas       0.67538  0.52194  Southern Miss.       0.32462  0.47806    9.0   10.1391
Florida Atlantic  0.39593  0.48160  Western Kentucky     0.60407  0.51840   -4.5   -5.4258
Kent              0.41447  0.48239  Army                 0.58553  0.51761   -3.5   -4.3811
Louisville        0.76380  0.51592  NC St.               0.23620  0.48408   17.5   18.3420
Central Florida   0.78362  0.51226  Tulane               0.21638  0.48774   19.5   20.1267
Texas St.         0.55955  0.51160  Louisiana-Lafayette  0.44045  0.48840    2.5    3.0963
USC               0.79444  0.50964  Colorado             0.20556  0.49036   21.0   21.4907
BYU               0.69892  0.49294  Nevada               0.30108  0.50706   12.0   11.6420
Northwestern      0.37323  0.50688  Nebraska             0.62677  0.49312   -7.0   -6.6580
Central Mich.     0.64454  0.50634  Ball St.             0.35546  0.49366    8.0    8.3403
TCU               0.67509  0.50547  Oklahoma St.         0.32491  0.49453   10.0   10.2885
San Diego St.     0.63429  0.49687  Hawaii               0.36571  0.50313    7.5    7.3391
Troy St.          0.61469  0.49763  Appalachian St.      0.38531  0.50237    6.5    6.3741
Mississippi       0.75478  0.49776  Tennessee            0.24522  0.50224   16.5   16.3882
Arizona St.       0.43342  0.50200  Stanford             0.56658  0.49800   -3.5   -3.3992
Wyoming           0.47119  0.50084  San Jose St.         0.52881  0.49916   -1.5   -1.457

NFL Week 7

None of the picks have really started clicking yet this season.
The top game is now 2-3 and the top 3 games 8-7 for the season to date.

Oakland        0.32199   0.38188   Arizona         0.67801   0.61812    -3.5    -9.2515
 Baltimore      0.70618   0.57779   Atlanta         0.29382   0.42221     7.5    11.1874
 Detroit        0.61929   0.57027   New Orleans     0.38071   0.42973     2.5     5.8208
 Jacksonville   0.32949   0.43220   Cleveland       0.67051   0.56780    -5.5    -8.6528
 Washington     0.56243   0.44206   Tennessee       0.43757   0.55794     5.5     2.8550
 Pittsburgh     0.51732   0.45199   Houston         0.48268   0.54801     3.0     0.7914
 New England    0.73414   0.54604   N.Y. Jets       0.26586   0.45396    11.0    13.1098
 Indianapolis   0.60442   0.54309   Cincinnati      0.39558   0.45691     3.0     5.0018
 St. Louis      0.32317   0.46560   Seattle         0.67683   0.53440    -7.5    -9.0886
 San Diego      0.61666   0.53299   Kansas City     0.38334   0.46701     4.0     5.4870
 Denver         0.62684   0.47675   San Francisco   0.37316   0.52325     7.0     5.9634
 Green Bay      0.63245   0.47692   Carolina        0.36755   0.52308     7.5     6.4413
 Dallas         0.65948   0.51928   N.Y. Giants     0.34052   0.48072     7.0     7.8720
 Chicago        0.58086   0.51508   Miami           0.41914   0.48492     3.0     3.6701
 Buffalo        0.64568   0.50226   Minnesota       0.35432   0.49774     7.0     7.1022

NFL Week 6

There are 6 games this week where the system average is within half a point of the current line. All of those games are clearly toss-ups. Two games do not currently have a line.
Season to date records for the NFL are 2-2 on the top game and 7-5 on the top 3 games of the week.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Oakland        0.25569    0.36668   San Diego       0.74431    0.63332    -8.0   -14.8532
Buffalo        0.51945    0.58231   New England     0.48055    0.41769    -3.0     0.9029
Tampa Bay      0.36234    0.41911   Baltimore       0.63766    0.58089    -3.0    -6.8604
St. Louis      0.36966    0.42880   San Francisco   0.63034    0.57120    -3.0    -6.3039
Miami          0.46891    0.53516   Green Bay       0.53109    0.46484    -3.0    -1.4070
Cincinnati     0.67019    0.53406   Carolina        0.32981    0.46594     7.0     8.5511
N.Y. Jets      0.28600    0.46999   Denver          0.71400    0.53001   -10.5   -11.9154
Cleveland      0.53204    0.50995   Pittsburgh      0.46796    0.49005     1.0     1.4485
Minnesota      0.45897    0.49108   Detroit         0.54103    0.50892    -1.5    -1.9137
Philadelphia   0.56207    0.50745   N.Y. Giants     0.43793    0.49255     2.5     2.8362
Seattle        0.67676    0.49269   Dallas          0.32324    0.50731     9.5     9.1610
Atlanta        0.57072    0.50541   Chicago         0.42928    0.49459     3.0     3.2441
Houston        0.44896    0.50370   Indianapolis    0.55104    0.49630    -2.5    -2.3323
Arizona        0.71013     .        Washington      0.28987     .           .     11.5705
Tennessee      0.68681     .        Jacksonville    0.31319     .           .      9.6215

NCAA Week 7

I wasn’t able to post these probabilities for week 6 due to a hard drive crash. Things are up and running again now. Thanks to the readers that gave advice or sent some needed data files to help me get the first month of the season restored.
These picks have not gotten off to a good start. The top pick is 2-3 while the top 5 picks are 9-16, only 26%.

home                p(win)  p(cover)  road               p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

Kent               0.60954   0.64251  Massachusetts     0.39046   0.35749   -2.0    5.8828
Syracuse           0.23993   0.61430  Florida St.       0.76007   0.38570  -24.0  -17.7474
Miami (Fla.)       0.68695   0.38717  Cincinnati        0.31305   0.61283   17.0   10.9256
Marshall           0.76799   0.39283  Middle Tenn.      0.23201   0.60717   24.5   18.6666
Wisconsin          0.78728   0.40989  Illinois          0.21272   0.59011   26.5   21.5507
Nevada             0.53944   0.58738  Colorado St.      0.46056   0.41262   -2.5    1.9821
UCLA               0.54984   0.58658  Oregon            0.45016   0.41342   -2.0    2.6088
Arizona            0.53406   0.58071  USC               0.46594   0.41929   -2.5    1.7697
Georgia St.        0.27088   0.42509  Arkansas St.      0.72912   0.57491  -10.5  -14.4524
Central Florida    0.48327   0.42585  BYU               0.51673   0.57415    3.0   -0.8546
Notre Dame         0.78326   0.57215  North Carolina    0.21674   0.42785   16.5   20.2914
Clemson            0.61001   0.43144  Louisville        0.38999   0.56856    9.5    5.9095
Troy St.           0.55598   0.43213  New Mexico St.    0.44402   0.56787    6.5    2.9301
Iowa St.           0.61892   0.56767  Toledo            0.38108   0.43233    3.0    6.6763
UAB                0.55319   0.43747  North Texas       0.44681   0.56253    6.5    2.9818
Texas-San Antonio  0.61795   0.44162  Florida Intl.     0.38205   0.55838   10.0    6.7684
Northern Ill.      0.70177   0.55725  Central Mich.     0.29823   0.44275    9.0   11.9580
Missouri           0.49875   0.55702  Georgia           0.50125   0.44298   -3.0   -0.0639
NC St.             0.51193   0.44391  Boston College    0.48807   0.55609    3.5    0.6087
California         0.50655   0.44429  Washington        0.49345   0.55571    3.5    0.3648
Kentucky           0.76344   0.44436  Louisiana-Monroe  0.23656   0.55564   21.0   18.0680
Arkansas           0.38642   0.55463  Alabama           0.61358   0.44537   -9.0   -6.1434
Iowa               0.60838   0.55232  Indiana           0.39162   0.44768    3.0    5.6407
Michigan           0.46991   0.45038  Penn St.          0.53009   0.54962    1.0   -1.5206
Hawaii             0.54536   0.45093  Wyoming           0.45464   0.54907    5.0    2.4004
Utah St.           0.66354   0.54808  Air Force         0.33646   0.45192    7.0    9.5852
Ball St.           0.58355   0.54752  Western Mich.     0.41645   0.45248    2.0    4.5435
Tulane             0.60229   0.54654  Connecticut       0.39771   0.45346    3.0    5.3800
Texas A&M          0.50224   0.45347  Mississippi       0.49776   0.54653    2.5    0.1139
Ohio               0.45523   0.45523  Bowling Green     0.54477   0.54477    0.0   -2.3824
Georgia Tech       0.59436   0.53911  Duke              0.40564   0.46089    3.0    5.0360
Temple             0.76856   0.53493  Tulsa             0.23144   0.46507   17.5   19.4021
Purdue             0.22676   0.52929  Michigan St.      0.77324   0.47071  -21.0  -19.4497
Georgia Southern   0.78776   0.47154  Idaho             0.21224   0.52846   23.5   21.9514
Eastern Mich.      0.29205   0.52784  Buffalo           0.70795   0.47216  -14.5  -13.0096
Army               0.47338   0.47338  Rice              0.52662   0.52662    0.0   -1.3611
Akron              0.73413   0.52628  Miami (Ohio)      0.26587   0.47372   13.5   14.8589
Stanford           0.74285   0.47426  Washington St.    0.25715   0.52574   17.0   15.6716
Florida            0.49316   0.52269  LSU               0.50684   0.47731   -1.5   -0.3471
Oklahoma           0.74033   0.52145  Texas             0.25967   0.47855   14.5   15.620
Kansas             0.22793   0.52134  Oklahoma St.      0.77207   0.47866  -20.5  -19.3685
New Mexico         0.43967   0.51716  San Diego St.     0.56033   0.48284   -4.0   -3.1217
Baylor             0.62928   0.48380  TCU               0.37072   0.51620    8.0    7.1527
Mississippi St.    0.42641   0.48511  Auburn            0.57359   0.51489   -3.0   -3.7444
Memphis            0.65263   0.51445  Houston           0.34737   0.48555    8.5    9.3135
Texas Tech         0.39058   0.49222  West Va.          0.60942   0.50778   -5.5   -5.9031
UNLV               0.32053   0.50499  Fresno St.        0.67947   0.49501  -10.5  -10.2462
UTEP               0.55415   0.49560  Old Dominion      0.44585   0.50440    3.0    2.7765
Minnesota          0.58158   0.50361  Northwestern      0.41842   0.49639    4.0    4.1808
South Florida      0.25727   0.49871  East Carolina     0.74273   0.50129  -16.0  -16.068

Up again

I am basically back up and running again. The only thing I left to rewrite is the code for my own PerformanZ Ratings, which wasn’t off to a great start anyway. I’ll get to that in the next couple of days.

Also I have to rederive the formulas I was using to calculate the probabilities.

And I am still missing NCAA week 5 data.

missing ncaa week 5

I had ncaa weeks 1-4 stored in the archive page of the website. I am missing week 5. Does anybody happen to have the csv file from week 5? If so could you email it to me.

almost done

I spent the entire day working on the NFL and have got that page up. I’m missing a couple of systems that I maintain. I wish I could add them but they are not something I can do quickly. In fact several of the systems I maintain are using last years final ratings for this weeks predictions.
Adding in the results from the first month is also something that will only be done over time.

ncaa update

I just put up files for NCAA for this week. By my count I still have 8 systems missing. I will try to add those tomorrow. As of right now I don’t actually have the code to score the results. Let me know if you see any mistakes, I am sure there are probably several.

I haven’t even looked at NFL yet. I don’t know what I will be able to do with that this week. Perhaps I can work on it Saturday and Sunday and just get out what I can get to. But don’t count on the numbers.

update: I’ve got a lot done on ncaa. I’m working on scoring the results next. I don’t have Pugh’s email so I can’t add his numbers right now. I’m having troubles with dwiggens and Loudsound.
After that I guess I will move to NFL. I’ll try working all day saturday and sunday on it. I can probably get something up but it may be after games have started.