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NFL Week 3

Last week the top game was correct and the top 3 were 2-1. Season totals are now 4-2 for the top 3 and 2-0 on the top game. As typical the straight up percentages tend to be very accurate while there is more error in the ATS numbers. Straight up we are doing 1 game better than expected and ATS exactly as expected. This week again expect to go 10-6 and 9-7.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Philadelphia         0.77168  0.62304 Indianapolis         0.22832  0.37696   6.5  11.2287
Washington           0.52511  0.60689 Green Bay            0.47489  0.39311  -3.0   0.9073
Arizona              0.45203  0.60257 Chicago              0.54797  0.39743  -5.5  -1.7421
Jacksonville         0.75601  0.59621 Tennessee            0.24399  0.40379   6.5  10.0181
Baltimore            0.72869  0.59389 Denver               0.27131  0.40611   5.5   9.0191
Tampa Bay            0.55074  0.58997 Pittsburgh           0.44926  0.41003  -1.5   1.9140
Cleveland            0.49701  0.41685 N.Y. Jets            0.50299  0.58315   3.0  -0.1111
Miami                0.67269  0.58103 Oakland              0.32731  0.41897   3.5   6.4484
Houston              0.59433  0.42653 N.Y. Giants          0.40567  0.57347   6.0   3.3784
Minnesota            0.82332  0.44389 Buffalo              0.17668  0.55611  16.5  14.3224
Atlanta              0.61850  0.54360 New Orleans          0.38150  0.45640   3.0   4.7103
Kansas City          0.69645  0.53383 San Francisco        0.30355  0.46617   6.5   7.7854
Detroit              0.36182  0.53218 New England          0.63818  0.46782  -6.5  -5.2915
Seattle              0.52036  0.47942 Dallas               0.47964  0.52058   1.5   0.7459
LA Rams              0.69296  0.51147 LA Chargers          0.30704  0.48853   7.0   7.4233
Carolina             0.58065  0.50041 Cincinnati           0.41935  0.49959   3.0   3.0151

NCAA Week 4

Last week was a rare 5-0 top 5. That raises the season totals to 9-5-1 on the top 5 and 2-0-1 on the top game. That last couple of years had gotten off to bad starts so this season is getting off to a very promising start. Last week the straight up numbers matched their expected value exactly while the ATS record was only off by one game. So for the season as a whole straight up is only doing 1 game worse than what they have predicted. ATS is off by 4.5 games.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Maryland             0.38933  0.35468 Minnesota            0.61067  0.64532   1.5  -4.5991
West Va.             0.70901  0.35939 Kansas St.           0.29099  0.64061  16.0   9.6729
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.45862  0.36706 Coastal Carolina     0.54138  0.63294   4.0  -1.7635
Virginia             0.49265  0.37872 Louisville           0.50735  0.62128   5.0  -0.3172
Marshall             0.28155  0.38592 NC St.               0.71845  0.61408  -5.0 -10.0297
Oklahoma             0.93171  0.38989 Army                 0.06829  0.61011  31.0  26.0981
Iowa                 0.53555  0.60621 Wisconsin            0.46445  0.39379  -3.0   1.4850
Oregon               0.35132  0.39749 Stanford             0.64868  0.60251  -2.0  -6.2636
Memphis              0.93383  0.40421 South Alabama        0.06617  0.59579  31.0  26.6985
Texas-San Antonio    0.74537  0.59560 Texas St.            0.25463  0.40440   7.0  11.0523
Michigan             0.90127  0.59260 Nebraska             0.09873  0.40740  17.5  21.3869
Louisiana-Monroe     0.31144  0.41242 Troy St.             0.68856  0.58758  -4.5  -8.1828
Old Dominion         0.05706  0.42898 Virginia Tech        0.94294  0.57102 -27.5 -31.0133
Arkansas St.         0.72624  0.56323 UNLV                 0.27376  0.43677   7.5  10.1990
South Florida        0.86213  0.43845 East Carolina        0.13787  0.56155  21.5  18.8246
USC                  0.53152  0.43916 Washington St.       0.46848  0.56084   4.0   1.3627
Mississippi          0.92712  0.44010 Kent                 0.07288  0.55990  29.0  26.2774
Ball St.             0.49580  0.44036 Western Kentucky     0.50420  0.55964   2.5  -0.1885
UTEP                 0.35934  0.44037 New Mexico St.       0.64066  0.55963  -3.5  -5.9985
Oklahoma St.         0.83733  0.55681 Texas Tech           0.16267  0.44319  14.0  16.3793
Iowa St.             0.82384  0.44603 Akron                0.17616  0.55397  19.0  16.5809
Bowling Green        0.40020  0.55363 Miami (Ohio)         0.59980  0.44637  -6.5  -4.2392
Temple               0.70238  0.55311 Tulsa                0.29762  0.44689   6.5   8.6822
Wake Forest          0.38852  0.55183 Notre Dame           0.61148  0.44817  -7.0  -4.7943
Liberty              0.29105  0.55011 North Texas          0.70895  0.44989 -12.5 -10.1721
Syracuse             0.92033  0.45035 Connecticut          0.07967  0.54965  27.5  25.2605
LSU                  0.91271  0.54853 Louisiana Tech       0.08729  0.45147  20.5  22.5233
Tennessee            0.34710  0.45232 Florida              0.65290  0.54768  -4.5  -6.4723
Miami (Fla.)         0.91904  0.45643 Florida Intl.        0.08096  0.54357  26.0  24.1132
Florida St.          0.69736  0.45702 Northern Ill.        0.30264  0.54298  10.5   8.6857
Central Florida      0.81651  0.54195 Florida Atlantic     0.18349  0.45805  13.5  15.2850
Rutgers              0.34640  0.46067 Buffalo              0.65360  0.53933  -5.0  -6.6661
San Diego St.        0.73914  0.46147 Eastern Mich.        0.26086  0.53853  12.0  10.4259
Utah St.             0.70442  0.46318 Air Force            0.29558  0.53682  10.5   8.9584
Missouri             0.21476  0.53005 Georgia              0.78524  0.46995 -14.5 -13.2368
Purdue               0.32439  0.47153 Boston College       0.67561  0.52847  -6.5  -7.7090
Ohio St.             0.97676  0.47415 Tulane               0.02324  0.52585  37.0  35.8329
Vanderbilt           0.46424  0.52460 South Carolina       0.53576  0.47540  -2.5  -1.4816
Texas                0.44908  0.52153 TCU                  0.55092  0.47847  -3.0  -2.1099
Oregon St.           0.37820  0.52100 Arizona              0.62180  0.47900  -6.0  -5.1293
Cincinnati           0.65411  0.47944 Ohio                 0.34589  0.52056   8.0   7.0794
Indiana              0.40816  0.51998 Michigan St.         0.59184  0.48002  -5.0  -4.1128
Georgia Tech         0.17540  0.51861 Clemson              0.82460  0.48139 -16.5 -15.7143
Auburn               0.95196  0.48146 Arkansas             0.04804  0.51854  30.0  29.1849
Baylor               0.68480  0.51179 Kansas               0.31520  0.48821   7.5   7.9909
Massachusetts        0.68254  0.51029 Charlotte            0.31746  0.48971   7.5   7.9307
Washington           0.83960  0.49016 Arizona St.          0.16040  0.50984  17.0  16.5880
North Carolina       0.41054  0.49100 Pittsburgh           0.58946  0.50900  -3.5  -3.8878
Alabama              0.92796  0.49154 Texas A&M            0.07204  0.50846  26.0  25.6280
Georgia St.          0.35033  0.50830 Western Mich.        0.64967  0.49170  -7.0  -6.6407
Illinois             0.06126  0.50605 Penn St.             0.93874  0.49395 -28.0 -27.7279
SMU                  0.35424  0.50574 Navy                 0.64576  0.49426  -6.5  -6.2590
Kentucky             0.28855  0.50455 Mississippi St.      0.71145  0.49545  -9.5  -9.3095
Southern Miss.       0.79336  0.49687 Rice                 0.20664  0.50313  14.0  13.8669
Toledo               0.73592  0.49760 Nevada               0.26408  0.50240  10.5  10.4008

NFL Week 2

Last week the top game was correct and the top 3 went 2-1. Opening week was better than expected, +.5 straight up and +2.5 ATS. Expectations for this week are the same as week 1, 10-6 and 9-7.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Tennessee            0.62748  0.65306 Houston              0.37252  0.34694  -1.0   4.7535
Dallas               0.69543  0.61772 N.Y. Giants          0.30457  0.38228   3.0   7.2427
New Orleans          0.81173  0.60869 Cleveland            0.18827  0.39131   9.0  13.0814
Green Bay            0.40703  0.40703 Minnesota            0.59297  0.59297   0.0  -3.3803
Chicago              0.50756  0.40831 Seattle              0.49244  0.59169   3.5   0.2643
Washington           0.73602  0.58433 Indianapolis         0.26398  0.41567   6.0   9.0562
Atlanta              0.59432  0.42713 Carolina             0.40568  0.57287   6.0   3.3905
Buffalo              0.37630  0.56842 LA Chargers          0.62370  0.43158  -7.0  -4.5256
LA Rams              0.76769  0.43642 Arizona              0.23231  0.56358  13.0  10.6656
Cincinnati           0.41212  0.43966 Baltimore            0.58788  0.56034  -1.0  -3.1604
N.Y. Jets            0.63420  0.55200 Miami                0.36580  0.44800   3.0   4.8475
San Francisco        0.61169  0.45154 Detroit              0.38831  0.54846   6.0   4.1982
Denver               0.62350  0.45497 Oakland              0.37650  0.54503   6.0   4.4136
Jacksonville         0.50133  0.54426 New England          0.49867  0.45574  -1.5   0.0466
Tampa Bay            0.37342  0.46792 Philadelphia         0.62658  0.53208  -3.5  -4.6628
Pittsburgh           0.59062  0.47710 Kansas City          0.40938  0.52290   4.0   3.1982

NCAA Week 3

Last week the top game was a push, the rest of the top 5 went 2-2. So the top game is 1-0-1 on the year and the top 5 is 4-5-1. OVerall the results were slightly less than expected last week. For the season straight up is doing 1 game worse than expected and ATS is doing 3.5 games worse than expected. This week is expected to go 36-13 and 28-21. That is pretty high ATS expectations. Look closely at the top game. Baylor is a 6 point favorite over Duke, but the computers favor Duke by 10. Maybe the biggest discrepancy I have ever seen. And the public likes Nebraska and their new coach much more than the computers do.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Baylor               0.27890  0.17436 Duke                 0.72110  0.82564   6.0 -10.0193
Nebraska             0.60758  0.34665 Troy St.             0.39242  0.65335  11.5   4.7044
Oregon               0.96379  0.34686 San Jose St.         0.03621  0.65314  41.0  33.6284
Michigan             0.95078  0.34987 SMU                  0.04922  0.65013  35.5  28.7824
Minnesota            0.86856  0.64707 Miami (Ohio)         0.13144  0.35293  12.5  18.8564
Army                 0.76427  0.64295 Hawaii               0.23573  0.35705   6.0  12.2137
Penn St.             0.98246  0.62473 Kent                 0.01754  0.37527  35.0  41.2187
Florida              0.80752  0.37866 Colorado St.         0.19248  0.62134  20.5  15.1216
Texas                0.46251  0.37891 USC                  0.53749  0.62109   3.5  -1.5379
Indiana              0.85446  0.61439 Ball St.             0.14554  0.38561  14.5  20.0118
Wisconsin            0.93251  0.60870 BYU                  0.06749  0.39130  21.0  25.7544
Wake Forest          0.48804  0.60711 Boston College       0.51196  0.39289  -5.0  -0.4966
Maryland             0.74384  0.39650 Temple               0.25616  0.60350  16.5  11.7816
Iowa St.             0.21277  0.59780 Oklahoma             0.78723  0.40220 -17.5 -13.3505
Toledo               0.36854  0.59544 Miami (Fla.)         0.63146  0.40456 -10.0  -5.8155
Texas Tech           0.57014  0.59320 Houston              0.42986  0.40680  -1.0   2.9939
Charlotte            0.53081  0.57811 Old Dominion         0.46919  0.42189  -2.0   1.2914
Kansas               0.49031  0.43104 Rutgers              0.50969  0.56896   2.5  -0.4063
Arkansas             0.59403  0.43209 North Texas          0.40597  0.56791   7.0   4.0721
TCU                  0.27396  0.56563 Ohio St.             0.72604  0.43437 -13.0 -10.1959
Texas A&M            0.92131  0.44928 Louisiana-Monroe     0.07869  0.55072  26.5  24.3083
Tulsa                0.52553  0.54980 Arkansas St.         0.47447  0.45020  -1.0   1.0474
UAB                  0.37140  0.45054 Tulane               0.62860  0.54946  -3.5  -5.6341
Memphis              0.92149  0.45200 Georgia St.          0.07851  0.54800  27.5  25.3402
San Diego St.        0.41852  0.54798 Arizona St.          0.58148  0.45202  -5.5  -3.4675
Mississippi          0.13390  0.54762 Alabama              0.86610  0.45238 -21.0 -18.9534
Purdue               0.40272  0.54646 Missouri             0.59728  0.45354  -6.0  -4.0710
Nevada               0.61477  0.54473 Oregon St.           0.38523  0.45527   3.0   4.8786
Tennessee            0.94564  0.46019 UTEP                 0.05436  0.53981  30.5  28.7108
Pittsburgh           0.44412  0.53889 Georgia Tech         0.55588  0.46111  -4.0  -2.3600
Mississippi St.      0.97292  0.53880 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.02708  0.46120  33.0  34.7582
Illinois             0.24611  0.46227 South Florida        0.75389  0.53773 -10.0 -11.5996
South Alabama        0.76855  0.53769 Texas St.            0.23145  0.46231  10.5  12.0536
Northwestern         0.90772  0.53761 Akron                0.09228  0.46239  21.0  22.6090
Auburn               0.70107  0.46528 LSU                  0.29893  0.53472  10.0   8.5821
Buffalo              0.53825  0.46550 Eastern Mich.        0.46175  0.53450   3.0   1.5775
New Mexico St.       0.44288  0.53437 New Mexico           0.55712  0.46563  -4.0  -2.4994
Florida Intl.        0.56315  0.46749 Massachusetts        0.43685  0.53251   4.0   2.6435
Utah                 0.38756  0.53060 Washington           0.61244  0.46940  -6.0  -4.7292
Kansas St.           0.91182  0.53059 Texas-San Antonio    0.08818  0.46941  21.5  22.7939
Notre Dame           0.80161  0.52905 Vanderbilt           0.19839  0.47095  13.5  14.7702
UCLA                 0.41377  0.47264 Fresno St.           0.58623  0.52736  -2.5  -3.6501
Georgia              0.97518  0.52661 Middle Tenn.         0.02482  0.47339  33.5  34.6791
Virginia             0.59807  0.51827 Ohio                 0.40193  0.48173   3.5   4.2916
Syracuse             0.44685  0.51631 Florida St.          0.55315  0.48369  -3.0  -2.2969
Northern Ill.        0.79058  0.48408 Central Mich.        0.20942  0.51592  14.0  13.3414
Clemson              0.96366  0.51591 Georgia Southern     0.03634  0.48409  32.5  33.2386
Louisville           0.90808  0.50427 Western Kentucky     0.09192  0.49573  22.5  22.6828
Oklahoma St.         0.56164  0.50109 Boise St.            0.43836  0.49891   2.5   2.5449

NFL Week 1

Here is the opening week of NFL. Expect 10-6 straight up and 9-7 ATS

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover) line  lineavg

New England          0.79206  0.66687 Houston              0.20794  0.33313  6.0  12.7693
Philadelphia         0.66211  0.63550 Atlanta              0.33789  0.36450  1.0   5.8266
Cleveland            0.28348  0.36717 Pittsburgh           0.71652  0.63283 -3.5  -8.5940
Denver               0.46157  0.38064 Seattle              0.53843  0.61936  3.0  -1.3961
Indianapolis         0.47818  0.40850 Cincinnati           0.52182  0.59150  2.5  -0.7740
Green Bay            0.62312  0.41627 Chicago              0.37688  0.58373  7.5   4.4801
N.Y. Giants          0.35950  0.43906 Jacksonville         0.64050  0.56094 -3.0  -5.2286
Miami                0.51416  0.55659 Tennessee            0.48584  0.44341 -1.5   0.4987
Minnesota            0.71907  0.55034 San Francisco        0.28093  0.44966  6.5   8.3130
Arizona              0.58890  0.54726 Washington           0.41110  0.45274  1.5   3.1807
Carolina             0.60917  0.53957 Dallas               0.39083  0.46043  2.5   3.8969
Detroit              0.69324  0.51737 N.Y. Jets            0.30676  0.48263  6.5   7.1135
New Orleans          0.75763  0.51523 Tampa Bay            0.24237  0.48477  9.5  10.0492
Baltimore            0.70637  0.51099 Buffalo              0.29363  0.48901  7.5   7.9011
Oakland              0.38694  0.49255 LA Rams              0.61306  0.50745 -4.0  -4.2782
LA Chargers          0.59916  0.50078 Kansas City          0.40084  0.49922  3.5   3.5275

NCAA Week 2

In week 1 the top game got canceled so I’ll look at the next 5. The top game was correct and the top 5 went 2-3. Overall, the straight up numbers were 2 games better than expected and ATS was 1.5 games worse than expected. This week expect to go 37-12 and 27-22

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

BYU                  0.39372  0.32726 California           0.60628  0.67274   3.0  -4.5483
Utah St.             0.84510  0.34755 New Mexico St.       0.15490  0.65245  24.0  17.3172
Florida              0.67809  0.36049 Kentucky             0.32191  0.63951  13.5   7.6165
Missouri             0.78206  0.37534 Wyoming              0.21794  0.62466  18.5  13.1411
Charlotte            0.13800  0.37738 Appalachian St.      0.86200  0.62262 -14.0 -19.6286
Texas-San Antonio    0.28959  0.61916 Baylor               0.71041  0.38084 -15.5 -10.0204
Michigan             0.91582  0.38584 Western Mich.        0.08418  0.61416  28.0  23.1278
Texas                0.86398  0.39879 Tulsa                0.13602  0.60121  23.0  18.6459
Old Dominion         0.39936  0.39936 Florida Intl.        0.60064  0.60064   0.0  -4.4209
Iowa                 0.68908  0.59889 Iowa St.             0.31092  0.40111   4.0   8.1269
Central Mich.        0.70161  0.59860 Kansas               0.29839  0.40140   5.0   9.4704
Colorado St.         0.29511  0.59586 Arkansas             0.70489  0.40414 -14.0  -9.6513
Notre Dame           0.97792  0.59459 Ball St.             0.02208  0.40541  34.5  39.1571
Kansas St.           0.37367  0.58695 Mississippi St.      0.62633  0.41305  -9.0  -5.3507
Army                 0.75848  0.58497 Liberty              0.24152  0.41503   9.0  12.9681
Northwestern         0.64285  0.58459 Duke                 0.35715  0.41541   2.5   6.0035
Georgia Southern     0.47539  0.41746 Massachusetts        0.52461  0.58254   2.5  -1.0520
Minnesota            0.48480  0.42504 Fresno St.           0.51520  0.57496   2.5  -0.6316
SMU                  0.13037  0.57459 TCU                  0.86963  0.42541 -22.5 -19.2762
Navy                 0.28585  0.43751 Memphis              0.71415  0.56249  -7.0  -9.6967
Hawaii               0.81972  0.44436 Rice                 0.18028  0.55564  17.5  15.1773
Coastal Carolina     0.31833  0.55153 UAB                  0.68167  0.44847 -10.0  -7.8481
Wisconsin            0.97808  0.55027 New Mexico           0.02192  0.44973  34.5  36.8069
East Carolina        0.19051  0.54853 North Carolina       0.80949  0.45147 -17.0 -14.9225
Bowling Green        0.20401  0.54823 Maryland             0.79599  0.45177 -16.0 -13.9559
Pittsburgh           0.25139  0.45191 Penn St.             0.74861  0.54809  -9.5 -11.5899
South Carolina       0.24496  0.45649 Georgia              0.75504  0.54351 -10.0 -11.8804
South Florida        0.46116  0.54304 Georgia Tech         0.53884  0.45696  -3.5  -1.6599
Nebraska             0.54217  0.45813 Colorado             0.45783  0.54187   3.5   1.7563
NC St.               0.93639  0.53993 Georgia St.          0.06361  0.46007  25.0  26.7592
Southern Miss.       0.66184  0.53803 Louisiana-Monroe     0.33816  0.46197   5.5   7.1308
UNLV                 0.90377  0.46241 UTEP                 0.09623  0.53759  23.5  21.9135
Purdue               0.81611  0.46254 Eastern Mich.        0.18389  0.53746  16.5  14.9402
Miami (Ohio)         0.49048  0.46692 Cincinnati           0.50952  0.53308   1.0  -0.4036
Temple               0.64387  0.52821 Buffalo              0.35613  0.47179   5.0   6.1874
Houston              0.55809  0.47476 Arizona              0.44191  0.52524   3.5   2.4421
Arizona St.          0.38266  0.52190 Michigan St.         0.61734  0.47810  -6.0  -5.0676
Indiana              0.63668  0.48110 Virginia             0.36332  0.51890   6.5   5.7239
Florida Atlantic     0.67915  0.48241 Air Force            0.32085  0.51759   9.0   8.2209
Boise St.            0.96827  0.51630 Connecticut          0.03173  0.48370  31.0  31.6978
Ohio St.             0.97016  0.48498 Rutgers              0.02984  0.51502  35.0  34.3136
Oklahoma             0.95649  0.48734 UCLA                 0.04351  0.51266  30.0  29.4535
Oklahoma St.         0.96795  0.51071 South Alabama        0.03205  0.48929  32.0  32.4709
Texas A&M            0.23081  0.49201 Clemson              0.76919  0.50799 -12.0 -12.3355
Alabama              0.97622  0.49566 Arkansas St.         0.02378  0.50434  36.0  35.8035
Northern Ill.        0.27894  0.50367 Utah                 0.72106  0.49633 -10.0  -9.8453
Washington St.       0.96112  0.49678 San Jose St.         0.03888  0.50322  34.0  33.8449
Vanderbilt           0.69610  0.49708 Nevada               0.30390  0.50292   8.5   8.3804
Stanford             0.63406  0.50088 USC                  0.36594  0.49912   5.5   5.5356

NCAA Week 1

Here are win and cover probabilities for the first week of college football.
Week one is always unpredictable. It could be really good or bad. Lately I feel the trend has been to have bad week 1’s. Expectations should be something like 33-11 straight up and 25-19 ATS.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg
Nebraska             0.81222  0.25325 Akron                0.18778  0.74675  26.0  14.8598
Iowa                 0.84404  0.65716 Northern Ill.        0.15596  0.34284  10.0  16.6734
Hawaii               0.16714  0.35233 Navy                 0.83286  0.64767 -10.0 -16.4632
Alabama              0.86122  0.36821 Louisville           0.13878  0.63179  24.0  18.3205
Oregon               0.94208  0.36994 Bowling Green        0.05792  0.63006  32.0  26.4215
Florida St.          0.55191  0.37278 Virginia Tech        0.44809  0.62722   7.5   2.1510
Tulane               0.24913  0.37835 Wake Forest          0.75087  0.62165  -6.0 -11.0596
Purdue               0.42054  0.38488 Northwestern         0.57946  0.61512   1.5  -3.2628
Minnesota            0.84658  0.38634 New Mexico St.       0.15342  0.61366  22.0  17.1514
Rice                 0.10195  0.61263 Houston              0.89805  0.38737 -26.5 -21.6284
Notre Dame           0.62752  0.60433 Michigan             0.37248  0.39567   1.0   5.3584
Western Mich.        0.49801  0.59860 Syracuse             0.50199  0.40140  -4.5  -0.0879
Kentucky             0.77273  0.40459 Central Mich.        0.22727  0.59541  17.0  12.8506
Liberty              0.44252  0.58777 Old Dominion         0.55748  0.41223  -6.5  -2.5649
Arizona              0.81285  0.57597 BYU                  0.18715  0.42403  11.5  14.6618
Wyoming              0.40192  0.42458 Washington St.       0.59808  0.57542  -1.0  -4.2682
Troy St.             0.33978  0.57503 Boise St.            0.66022  0.42497 -10.0  -6.8585
North Texas          0.54533  0.43552 SMU                  0.45467  0.56448   4.5   1.8554
Boston College       0.89120  0.56085 Massachusetts        0.10880  0.43915  18.0  20.5527
Rutgers              0.87143  0.56059 Texas St.            0.12857  0.43941  16.5  19.0654
UCLA                 0.84452  0.55556 Cincinnati           0.15548  0.44444  14.5  16.8193
Duke                 0.75889  0.44829 Army                 0.24111  0.55171  14.0  11.8147
LSU                  0.46149  0.54407 Miami (Fla.)         0.53851  0.45593  -3.5  -1.6318
Ohio St.             0.98637  0.54119 Oregon St.           0.01363  0.45881  38.5  40.3924
Florida Intl.        0.25582  0.45944 Indiana              0.74418  0.54056  -9.5 -11.2452
Stanford             0.81961  0.53352 San Diego St.        0.18039  0.46648  14.0  15.4191
USC                  0.95343  0.53001 UNLV                 0.04657  0.46999  26.5  27.7441
Vanderbilt           0.59985  0.52844 Middle Tenn.         0.40015  0.47156   3.0   4.1788
Michigan St.         0.90610  0.47273 Utah St.             0.09390  0.52727  23.5  22.3396
Wisconsin            0.98056  0.52710 Western Kentucky     0.01944  0.47290  36.0  37.2253
Auburn               0.53634  0.47556 Washington           0.46366  0.52444   2.5   1.4952
Maryland             0.22823  0.52328 Texas                0.77177  0.47672 -13.5 -12.5183
Illinois             0.82522  0.47850 Kent                 0.17478  0.52150  16.5  15.6010
South Carolina       0.95148  0.47998 Coastal Carolina     0.04852  0.52002  29.5  28.6337
Texas Tech           0.57668  0.51621 Mississippi          0.42332  0.48379   2.5   3.1651
Penn St.             0.91731  0.51418 Appalachian St.      0.08269  0.48582  23.5  24.1180
Tennessee            0.26069  0.48667 West Va.             0.73931  0.51333 -10.0 -10.5498
Colorado             0.66190  0.48728 Colorado St.         0.33810  0.51272   7.5   6.9681
Oklahoma             0.89573  0.50768 Florida Atlantic     0.10427  0.49232  21.0  21.3263
California           0.65848  0.49251 North Carolina       0.34152  0.50749   7.0   6.6922
Arizona St.          0.86259  0.49454 Texas-San Antonio    0.13741  0.50546  18.5  18.2709
South Alabama        0.27658  0.50495 Louisiana Tech       0.72342  0.49505 -10.0  -9.7952
Connecticut          0.08582  0.50199 Central Florida      0.91418  0.49801 -24.0 -23.9126
Miami (Ohio)         0.43910  0.50058 Marshall             0.56090  0.49942  -2.5  -2.4764

2018 Season

Just letting everyone know that I will be monitoring the 2018 season. However the NFL preseason will not be further collected, updated, or scored until the 3rd or 4th week.

NFL Week 17

I am back from vacation and am trying to get everything caught up. Last week the top 3 picks were 1-1-1.
The season record is no 22-25-1 for top 3 and 8-8 for top game.
The win probabilities are starting to outperform expectations, now +8. The ATS numbers are reasonably in line, now -1.5 games off expectations for the season. This weekk the expectations ars 11-5 and 10-6. But there are lots of irregularities with many good teams underdogs for resting players.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

LA Rams              0.80838  0.86682 San Francisco        0.19162  0.13318  -3.5  12.7392
Philadelphia         0.73502  0.79917 Dallas               0.26498  0.20083  -3.0   8.9466
Denver               0.37432  0.28461 Kansas City          0.62568  0.71539   3.5  -4.5085
Pittsburgh           0.89683  0.71175 Cleveland            0.10317  0.28825  10.5  18.8155
Tennessee            0.41840  0.33802 Jacksonville         0.58160  0.66198   3.0  -2.9164
Miami                0.54328  0.61401 Buffalo              0.45672  0.38599  -2.5   1.5006
Indianapolis         0.52238  0.39585 Houston              0.47762  0.60415   4.5   0.7887
Detroit              0.62172  0.43568 Green Bay            0.37828  0.56432   6.5   4.2696
Atlanta              0.56818  0.45275 Carolina             0.43182  0.54725   4.0   2.3650
N.Y. Giants          0.37380  0.45738 Washington           0.62620  0.54262  -3.0  -4.4949
Minnesota            0.81072  0.54244 Chicago              0.18928  0.45756  11.0  12.5148
Tampa Bay            0.29601  0.46824 New Orleans          0.70399  0.53176  -6.5  -7.6357
Seattle              0.71466  0.46870 Arizona              0.28534  0.53130   9.0   7.9051
Baltimore            0.76806  0.52617 Cincinnati           0.23194  0.47383   9.5  10.4354
New England          0.86176  0.51686 N.Y. Jets            0.13824  0.48314  15.0  15.6062
LA Chargers          0.72156  0.50609 Oakland              0.27844  0.49391   8.0   8.2135

NFL week 16

Merry Christmas everyone. Expect things to be later this week.
Season record is now 21-24 on the top 3 and 7-8 on the top game. Season long wide expectations are doing 6 games better than expected straight up and 1/2 game better than expected ATS.
This week look for 11-5 and 9-7. I’m posting these much closer to game time this week, so that might have some impact.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Chicago              0.75330  0.61653 Cleveland            0.24670  0.38347   5.5   9.6952
San Francisco        0.29468  0.38444 Jacksonville         0.70532  0.61556  -3.5  -7.6817
Philadelphia         0.81703  0.61363 Oakland              0.18297  0.38637   9.0  13.2240
Green Bay            0.35955  0.59631 Minnesota            0.64045  0.40369  -8.5  -5.0660
N.Y. Jets            0.39037  0.58536 LA Chargers          0.60963  0.41464  -7.0  -3.9446
Arizona              0.64880  0.56633 N.Y. Giants          0.35120  0.43367   3.0   5.3304
Washington           0.64715  0.56420 Denver               0.35285  0.43580   3.0   5.2447
New England          0.81111  0.54018 Buffalo              0.18889  0.45982  11.0  12.4206
Kansas City          0.73308  0.46147 Miami                0.26692  0.53853  10.0   8.6544
Tennessee            0.31786  0.46212 LA Rams              0.68214  0.53788  -5.5  -6.8814
Houston              0.30714  0.53433 Pittsburgh           0.69286  0.46567  -8.5  -7.2589
Baltimore            0.84336  0.53433 Indianapolis         0.15664  0.46567  13.5  14.7611
Cincinnati           0.37923  0.47653 Detroit              0.62077  0.52347  -3.5  -4.3284
Dallas               0.58516  0.48487 Seattle              0.41484  0.51513   3.5   2.9753
New Orleans          0.65334  0.51333 Atlanta              0.34666  0.48667   5.0   5.4630
Carolina             0.75215  0.50286 Tampa Bay            0.24785  0.49714   9.5   9.6009