Skip to content

almost home

i am in the amsterdam airport waiting on my flight home.  The balloon ride was a good experience but no animals were out at the time.  but later thfat day did get a rare leopard sighting.  The next day we finally found the migration. Zebra in every direction as far as the eye could see.

ngorongoro

I spent today in the ngorongoro  crater.  In the first day we’ve already seen it all, lions, cheeta, elephants, hippo, rhino, giraffe, zebra, osterich.  someone said they  counted 28 kinds of animals.  and so far much of it has been up close.  Wilderbeast, zebra, and gazelle are out in hundreds.

tonight i am in a lodge in the serengti national park.  tomorrow will start before sunset with a hot air balloon safari.

Travels

It is time to take off on my next trip.  For the next week and a half I will be in Africa.  I’ll be visiting a few game preserves in Tanzania and finishing up with a few days on Zanzibar.  In a few hours I leave Chicago on a flight to Amsterdam.  Then have a three hour layover before a flight to Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.  I think I will have an internet connection at least every few days.  So given time I will post updates.

NFL Week 17

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road           p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Atlanta        0.83977   0.74841  Tampa Bay     0.16023   0.25159    3.5   10.7322
 Denver         0.97324   0.66055  Kansas City   0.02676   0.33945   16.5   21.0031
 N.Y. Giants    0.85707   0.65872  Philadelphia  0.14293   0.34128    7.0   11.3490
 Indianapolis   0.34327   0.58404  Houston       0.65673   0.41596   -6.5   -4.2598
 Buffalo        0.54271   0.42750  N.Y. Jets     0.45729   0.57250    3.0    1.1097
 San Francisco  0.91963   0.43070  Arizona       0.08037   0.56930   16.5   14.6734
 Washington     0.67820   0.56890  Dallas        0.32180   0.43110    3.0    4.8011
 Seattle        0.88331   0.56867  St. Louis     0.11669   0.43133   11.0   12.8678
 New England    0.86961   0.56698  Miami         0.13039   0.43302   10.0   11.7646
 Minnesota      0.44893   0.56363  Green Bay     0.55107   0.43637   -3.0   -1.3346
 Tennessee      0.68767   0.54183  Jacksonville  0.31233   0.45817    4.0    5.0937
 Detroit        0.35367   0.46335  Chicago       0.64633   0.53665   -3.0   -3.9738
 New Orleans    0.64612   0.47689  Carolina      0.35388   0.52311    4.5    3.8973
 San Diego      0.81624   0.47751  Oakland       0.18376   0.52249   10.0    9.4109
 Cincinnati     0.58890   0.49360  Baltimore     0.41110   0.50640    2.5    2.3335
 Pittsburgh     0.72729    .       Cleveland     0.27271    .          .     6.2802

NFL Week 16

The NFL top 3 picks are back up to 33% after a 2-1 week last week. The top game is 4-10 and the top 3 14-28-3.
I am heading home for Christmas tomorrow morning so pages may not be updated regularly.

 home           p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Pittsburgh    0.51137   0.38016  Cincinnati     0.48863   0.61984    3.5    0.2992
 Jacksonville  0.05647   0.39312  New England    0.94353   0.60688  -14.5  -17.4929
 Baltimore     0.50438   0.59923  N.Y. Giants    0.49562   0.40077   -2.5    0.1141
 Carolina      0.84193   0.59914  Oakland        0.15807   0.40086    8.0   10.6740
 Detroit       0.28212   0.40193  Atlanta        0.71788   0.59807   -3.5   -6.1487
 Miami         0.71751   0.55642  Buffalo        0.28249   0.44358    4.5    5.9728
 Arizona       0.34160   0.54655  Chicago        0.65840   0.45345   -5.5   -4.2748
 N.Y. Jets     0.56319   0.46742  San Diego      0.43681   0.53258    2.5    1.6512
 Kansas City   0.28034   0.53234  Indianapolis   0.71966   0.46766   -7.0   -6.1431
 Dallas        0.58232   0.46821  New Orleans    0.41768   0.53179    3.0    2.1679
 Denver        0.89915   0.51627  Cleveland      0.10085   0.48373   13.0   13.4290
 Tampa Bay     0.59847   0.48535  St. Louis      0.40153   0.51465    3.0    2.6148
 Houston       0.77237   0.51125  Minnesota      0.22763   0.48875    7.5    7.7945
 Green Bay     0.88748   0.51071  Tennessee      0.11252   0.48929   12.5   12.7829
 Philadelphia  0.26949   0.50082  Washington     0.73051   0.49918   -6.5   -6.4782
 Seattle       0.53895    .       San Francisco  0.46105    .          .     1.0215

Bowl Games

OK, here are the bowl games.

  home                 p(win) p(cover) road           p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Florida St.         0.73277  0.27538 Northern Ill. 0.26723  0.72462  13.5   6.8863
  Notre Dame          0.36160  0.70595 Alabama       0.63840  0.29405 -10.0  -3.9538
  Virginia Tech       0.39873  0.31308 Rutgers       0.60127  0.68692   2.5  -2.7834
  Duke                0.14084  0.32933 Cincinnati    0.85916  0.67067  -7.0 -11.8716
  Oregon              0.66491  0.34580 Kansas St.    0.33509  0.65420   9.0   4.6598
  Central Florida     0.60932  0.36285 Ball St.      0.39068  0.63715   7.0   3.0917
  Mississippi St.     0.45475  0.38242 Northwestern  0.54525  0.61758   2.0  -1.2260
  San Jose St.        0.81760  0.60254 Bowling Green 0.18240  0.39746   7.0   9.8151
  Florida             0.93228  0.59835 Louisville    0.06772  0.40165  13.5  16.2033
  Rice                0.55242  0.58885 Air Force     0.44758  0.41115  -1.0   1.4202
  Vanderbilt          0.80243  0.58106 NC St.        0.19757  0.41894   7.0   9.2180
  Boise St.           0.61071  0.42999 Washington    0.38929  0.57001   5.0   3.0725
  Oklahoma            0.40190  0.56800 Texas A&M     0.59810  0.43200  -4.5  -2.6635
  Western Kentucky    0.74748  0.56389 Central Mich. 0.25252  0.43611   5.5   7.2492
  Tulsa               0.44211  0.44211 Iowa St.      0.55789  0.55789   0.0  -1.6126
  Kent                0.40687  0.55329 Arkansas St.  0.59313  0.44671  -4.0  -2.5499
  Arizona             0.83497  0.54259 Nevada        0.16503  0.45741   9.5  10.6719
  Fresno St.          0.89429  0.54098 SMU           0.10571  0.45902  12.5  13.6217
  Texas               0.38716  0.46052 Oregon St.    0.61284  0.53948  -2.0  -3.0566
  Texas Tech          0.84152  0.46175 Minnesota     0.15848  0.53825  12.0  10.9493
  Georgia             0.79425  0.46554 Nebraska      0.20575  0.53446  10.0   9.0472
  Mississippi         0.59458  0.46791 Pittsburgh    0.40542  0.53209   3.5   2.6189
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.71850  0.52988 East Carolina 0.28150  0.47012   5.5   6.3191
  Oklahoma St.        0.93601  0.52754 Purdue        0.06399  0.47246  16.5  17.2846
  Arizona St.         0.87262  0.47302 Navy          0.12738  0.52698  14.0  13.2146
  LSU                 0.66671  0.52365 Clemson       0.33329  0.47635   4.0   4.6386
  UCLA                0.52108  0.52108 Baylor        0.47892  0.47892   0.0   0.5719
  Louisiana-Monroe    0.75572  0.52093 Ohio          0.24428  0.47907   7.0   7.5741
  Stanford            0.74080  0.52057 Wisconsin     0.25920  0.47943   6.5   7.0644
  USC                 0.83112  0.51294 Georgia Tech  0.16888  0.48706  10.0  10.3503
  San Diego St.       0.38299  0.49029 BYU           0.61701  0.50971  -3.0  -3.2673
  Utah St.            0.82460  0.49343 Toledo        0.17540  0.50657  10.5  10.3179
  Michigan St.        0.41156  0.50476 TCU           0.58844  0.49524  -2.5  -2.3732
  South Carolina      0.67786  0.49621 Michigan      0.32214  0.50379   5.0   4.8992
  Syracuse            0.35293  0.49790 West Va.      0.64707  0.50210  -4.0  -4.0566

NFL Week 15

The top 3 went 1-2 last week. Top game is 4-9 and top 3 are 12-27-3 for the season.

  home           p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)  line   lineavg

  Chicago       0.57827   0.66899  Green Bay      0.42173   0.33101  -2.5   2.05993
  Dallas        0.58997   0.64462  Pittsburgh     0.41003   0.35538  -1.5   2.37974
  Arizona       0.40353   0.62703  Detroit        0.59647   0.37297  -6.0  -2.57871
  Tennessee     0.45837   0.38370  N.Y. Jets      0.54163   0.61630   2.0  -1.09349
  Baltimore     0.47688   0.59107  Denver         0.52312   0.40893  -3.0  -0.60336
  New Orleans   0.54598   0.41310  Tampa Bay      0.45402   0.58690   3.5   1.20646
  Atlanta       0.50875   0.43290  N.Y. Giants    0.49125   0.56710   2.0   0.22974
  Miami         0.79487   0.56626  Jacksonville   0.20513   0.43374   7.0   8.77901
  Houston       0.82199   0.52779  Indianapolis   0.17801   0.47221   9.0   9.73542
  New England   0.70439   0.52529  San Francisco  0.29561   0.47471   5.0   5.66979
  Buffalo       0.28062   0.47685  Seattle        0.71938   0.52315  -5.5  -6.11077
  Oakland       0.59265   0.47953  Kansas City    0.40735   0.52047   3.0   2.46089
  San Diego     0.63293   0.52006  Carolina       0.36707   0.47994   3.0   3.52166
  St. Louis     0.60723   0.51374  Minnesota      0.39277   0.48626   2.5   2.86232
  Cleveland     0.44816   0.48632  Washington     0.55184   0.51368  -1.0  -1.35705
  Philadelphia  0.33856   0.48634  Cincinnati     0.66144   0.51366  -4.0  -4.35848

NFL Week 14

Surprise, surprise. The top 3 NFL picks went 3-0 last week.
Season to date, top game: 4-8, top 3: 11-25-3

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road           p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Tampa Bay      0.84106   0.63151  Philadelphia  0.15894   0.36849    7.0   10.5463
 Carolina       0.28419   0.38790  Atlanta       0.71581   0.61210   -3.0   -5.9908
 Oakland        0.11362   0.39164  Denver        0.88638   0.60836  -10.0  -12.9497
 Washington     0.50979   0.39594  Baltimore     0.49021   0.60406    3.0    0.2554
 Buffalo        0.52478   0.41048  St. Louis     0.47522   0.58952    3.0    0.6463
 Pittsburgh     0.69860   0.42162  San Diego     0.30140   0.57838    7.5    5.4347
 Cincinnati     0.67215   0.56261  Dallas        0.32785   0.43739    3.0    4.6401
 San Francisco  0.86124   0.55381  Miami         0.13876   0.44619   10.0   11.4233
 N.Y. Giants    0.72392   0.54601  New Orleans   0.27608   0.45399    5.0    6.2068
 Cleveland      0.76471   0.53927  Kansas City   0.23529   0.46073    6.5    7.5288
 Jacksonville   0.35522   0.46533  N.Y. Jets     0.64478   0.53467   -3.0   -3.9182
 Green Bay      0.75943   0.53277  Detroit       0.24057   0.46723    6.5    7.3590
 Indianapolis   0.72691   0.53075  Tennessee     0.27309   0.46925    5.5    6.3062
 New England    0.63919   0.52757  Houston       0.36081   0.47243    3.0    3.7225
 Seattle        0.83805   0.51233  Arizona       0.16195   0.48767   10.0   10.3234
 Minnesota      0.37567   0.48866  Chicago       0.62433   0.51134   -3.0   -3.2958

NFL Week 13

Last week was another 0-fer in the NFL. At this point I hope you are making big money by picking opposite. The top 3 picks of the week are only 8-25-3 for the season, the top game is 3-8.

 home          p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

  Oakland      0.38306   0.32971  Cleveland      0.61694   0.67029    1.5  -3.11481
  Tennessee    0.18296   0.36393  Houston        0.81704   0.63607   -6.0  -9.75396
  Atlanta      0.71450   0.59126  New Orleans    0.28550   0.40874    3.5   5.90562
  Kansas City  0.31005   0.41598  Carolina       0.68995   0.58402   -3.0  -5.24531
  San Diego    0.50610   0.58212  Cincinnati     0.49390   0.41788   -2.0   0.15918
  Miami        0.19631   0.43896  New England    0.80369   0.56104   -7.5  -9.14276
  Chicago      0.68599   0.55862  Seattle        0.31401   0.44138    3.5   5.03146
  St. Louis    0.21737   0.45237  San Francisco  0.78263   0.54763   -7.0  -8.26654
  Buffalo      0.73621   0.54183  Jacksonville   0.26379   0.45817    5.5   6.59706
  N.Y. Jets    0.63075   0.46084  Arizona        0.36925   0.53916    4.5   3.47619
  Dallas       0.80793   0.46600  Philadelphia   0.19207   0.53400   10.0   9.10707
  Washington   0.42246   0.51787  N.Y. Giants    0.57754   0.48213   -2.5  -2.03396
  Green Bay    0.75580   0.49138  Minnesota      0.24420   0.50862    7.5   7.27323
  Detroit      0.67876   0.49513  Indianapolis   0.32124   0.50487    5.0   4.87181
  Denver       0.75159   0.50175  Tampa Bay      0.24841   0.49825    7.0   7.04541
  Baltimore    0.72370    .       Pittsburgh     0.27630    .          .    6.24361

NCAA Week 14

The NCAA picks have been inconsistent for the last several week. The top game was correct last week but the top 5 were only 1-3-1. For the season the top game is now 4-9 and the top 5 are 35-28-2.

home              p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Hawaii           0.58595  0.36836 South Alabama       0.41405  0.63164   6.0   2.3545
Stanford         0.85077  0.61412 UCLA                0.14923  0.38588   8.0  11.0955
Rutgers          0.70409  0.60027 Louisville          0.29591  0.39973   3.0   5.7014
Connecticut      0.23302  0.41458 Cincinnati          0.76698  0.58542  -5.5  -7.8127
South Florida    0.34269  0.57806 Pittsburgh          0.65731  0.42194  -6.5  -4.3739
Kent             0.33018  0.56058 Northern Ill.       0.66982  0.43942  -6.5  -4.8258
Florida Atlantic 0.16825  0.45150 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.83175  0.54850  -9.0 -10.3068
Wisconsin        0.35153  0.45588 Nebraska            0.64847  0.54412  -3.0  -4.2297
Texas St.        0.90489  0.54407 New Mexico St.      0.09511  0.45593  13.0  14.1998
Baylor           0.36648  0.53351 Oklahoma St.        0.63352  0.46649  -4.5  -3.6102
TCU              0.29397  0.52459 Oklahoma            0.70603  0.47541  -6.5  -5.8357
Kansas St.       0.86957  0.52309 Texas               0.13043  0.47691  11.5  12.1246
Arkansas St.     0.81006  0.48087 Middle Tenn.        0.18994  0.51913  10.0   9.4821
Nevada           0.19774  0.51555 Boise St.           0.80226  0.48445  -9.5  -9.0831
Georgia          0.27119  0.51080 Alabama             0.72881  0.48920  -7.0  -6.7022
Tulsa            0.56468  0.48965 Central Florida     0.43532  0.51035   2.0   1.7252
Georgia Tech     0.09577  0.49498 Florida St.         0.90423  0.50502 -14.0 -14.1361
West Va.         0.96218  0.50300 Kansas              0.03782  0.49700  19.5  19.5829