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NCAA Week 8

The NFL numbers are at least better than 50%. For NCAA the top game is 2-4 while the top 5 has only been 11-19.

home               phwin   phcover  road                  prwin   prcover   line   lineavg

Oregon            0.70305  0.33776  Washington           0.29695  0.66224   21.0   11.9721
Alabama           0.63908  0.37377  Texas A&M            0.36092  0.62623   14.0    7.3817
Florida Intl.     0.24225  0.60339  Marshall             0.75775  0.39661  -22.5  -17.0361
Duke              0.64162  0.59908  Virginia             0.35838  0.40092    2.5    7.6866
West Va.          0.29021  0.40560  Baylor               0.70979  0.59440   -7.5  -12.3861
Ohio St.          0.76238  0.42291  Rutgers              0.23762  0.57709   22.0   17.9077
Bowling Green     0.61931  0.57693  Western Mich.        0.38069  0.42307    2.5    6.6940
Massachusetts     0.68064  0.42599  Eastern Mich.        0.31936  0.57401   14.5   10.5727
Louisiana Tech    0.64884  0.43173  Texas-San Antonio    0.35116  0.56827   12.5    8.7329
Indiana           0.29258  0.56692  Michigan St.         0.70742  0.43308  -15.5  -12.1117
Ohio              0.37946  0.43435  Akron                0.62054  0.56565   -3.0   -6.3268
Oklahoma          0.68090  0.56505  Kansas St.           0.31910  0.43495    7.0   10.3635
Texas Tech        0.67361  0.43549  Kansas               0.32639  0.56451   13.0    9.7113
Boise St.         0.72345  0.43984  Fresno St.           0.27655  0.56016   17.0   13.8642
Florida St.       0.65128  0.44108  Notre Dame           0.34872  0.55892   11.5    8.4321
Boston College    0.35371  0.44165  Clemson              0.64629  0.55835   -5.0   -7.9947
Maryland          0.54483  0.44660  Iowa                 0.45517  0.55340    5.0    2.2784
Houston           0.59153  0.44746  Temple               0.40847  0.55254    7.5    4.7979
Texas             0.66962  0.44964  Iowa St.             0.33038  0.55036   12.0    9.4448
Pittsburgh        0.43075  0.45009  Virginia Tech        0.56925  0.54991   -1.0   -3.5098
California        0.33268  0.45201  UCLA                 0.66732  0.54799   -7.0   -9.4839
Colorado St.      0.56355  0.45403  Utah St.             0.43645  0.54597    5.5    3.1999
North Carolina    0.43517  0.45416  Georgia Tech         0.56483  0.54584   -1.0   -3.3568
Idaho             0.55210  0.45501  New Mexico St.       0.44790  0.54499    5.0    2.6859
Arkansas          0.38230  0.45712  Georgia              0.61770  0.54288   -4.0   -6.1506
LSU               0.70150  0.53821  Kentucky             0.29850  0.46179   10.0   11.9673
South Alabama     0.75968  0.46274  Georgia St.          0.24032  0.53726   20.0   18.0075
Air Force         0.70008  0.53343  New Mexico           0.29992  0.46657   10.0   11.6958
Tulsa             0.49994  0.52908  South Florida        0.50006  0.47092   -1.5   -0.0031
Middle Tenn.      0.50961  0.52889  UAB                  0.49039  0.47111   -1.0    0.4969
Minnesota         0.74463  0.52862  Purdue               0.25537  0.47138   14.0   15.4400
SMU               0.30358  0.52645  Cincinnati           0.69642  0.47355  -13.0  -11.6344
Florida           0.58112  0.47585  Missouri             0.41888  0.52415    5.5    4.2577
Oregon St.        0.42761  0.47625  Utah                 0.57239  0.52375   -2.5   -3.6931
Northern Ill.     0.73077  0.52316  Miami (Ohio)         0.26923  0.47684   13.5   14.7105
Wake Forest       0.40718  0.52237  Syracuse             0.59282  0.47763   -6.0   -4.8604
North Texas       0.67538  0.52194  Southern Miss.       0.32462  0.47806    9.0   10.1391
Florida Atlantic  0.39593  0.48160  Western Kentucky     0.60407  0.51840   -4.5   -5.4258
Kent              0.41447  0.48239  Army                 0.58553  0.51761   -3.5   -4.3811
Louisville        0.76380  0.51592  NC St.               0.23620  0.48408   17.5   18.3420
Central Florida   0.78362  0.51226  Tulane               0.21638  0.48774   19.5   20.1267
Texas St.         0.55955  0.51160  Louisiana-Lafayette  0.44045  0.48840    2.5    3.0963
USC               0.79444  0.50964  Colorado             0.20556  0.49036   21.0   21.4907
BYU               0.69892  0.49294  Nevada               0.30108  0.50706   12.0   11.6420
Northwestern      0.37323  0.50688  Nebraska             0.62677  0.49312   -7.0   -6.6580
Central Mich.     0.64454  0.50634  Ball St.             0.35546  0.49366    8.0    8.3403
TCU               0.67509  0.50547  Oklahoma St.         0.32491  0.49453   10.0   10.2885
San Diego St.     0.63429  0.49687  Hawaii               0.36571  0.50313    7.5    7.3391
Troy St.          0.61469  0.49763  Appalachian St.      0.38531  0.50237    6.5    6.3741
Mississippi       0.75478  0.49776  Tennessee            0.24522  0.50224   16.5   16.3882
Arizona St.       0.43342  0.50200  Stanford             0.56658  0.49800   -3.5   -3.3992
Wyoming           0.47119  0.50084  San Jose St.         0.52881  0.49916   -1.5   -1.457

NFL Week 7

None of the picks have really started clicking yet this season.
The top game is now 2-3 and the top 3 games 8-7 for the season to date.

Oakland        0.32199   0.38188   Arizona         0.67801   0.61812    -3.5    -9.2515
 Baltimore      0.70618   0.57779   Atlanta         0.29382   0.42221     7.5    11.1874
 Detroit        0.61929   0.57027   New Orleans     0.38071   0.42973     2.5     5.8208
 Jacksonville   0.32949   0.43220   Cleveland       0.67051   0.56780    -5.5    -8.6528
 Washington     0.56243   0.44206   Tennessee       0.43757   0.55794     5.5     2.8550
 Pittsburgh     0.51732   0.45199   Houston         0.48268   0.54801     3.0     0.7914
 New England    0.73414   0.54604   N.Y. Jets       0.26586   0.45396    11.0    13.1098
 Indianapolis   0.60442   0.54309   Cincinnati      0.39558   0.45691     3.0     5.0018
 St. Louis      0.32317   0.46560   Seattle         0.67683   0.53440    -7.5    -9.0886
 San Diego      0.61666   0.53299   Kansas City     0.38334   0.46701     4.0     5.4870
 Denver         0.62684   0.47675   San Francisco   0.37316   0.52325     7.0     5.9634
 Green Bay      0.63245   0.47692   Carolina        0.36755   0.52308     7.5     6.4413
 Dallas         0.65948   0.51928   N.Y. Giants     0.34052   0.48072     7.0     7.8720
 Chicago        0.58086   0.51508   Miami           0.41914   0.48492     3.0     3.6701
 Buffalo        0.64568   0.50226   Minnesota       0.35432   0.49774     7.0     7.1022

NFL Week 6

There are 6 games this week where the system average is within half a point of the current line. All of those games are clearly toss-ups. Two games do not currently have a line.
Season to date records for the NFL are 2-2 on the top game and 7-5 on the top 3 games of the week.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Oakland        0.25569    0.36668   San Diego       0.74431    0.63332    -8.0   -14.8532
Buffalo        0.51945    0.58231   New England     0.48055    0.41769    -3.0     0.9029
Tampa Bay      0.36234    0.41911   Baltimore       0.63766    0.58089    -3.0    -6.8604
St. Louis      0.36966    0.42880   San Francisco   0.63034    0.57120    -3.0    -6.3039
Miami          0.46891    0.53516   Green Bay       0.53109    0.46484    -3.0    -1.4070
Cincinnati     0.67019    0.53406   Carolina        0.32981    0.46594     7.0     8.5511
N.Y. Jets      0.28600    0.46999   Denver          0.71400    0.53001   -10.5   -11.9154
Cleveland      0.53204    0.50995   Pittsburgh      0.46796    0.49005     1.0     1.4485
Minnesota      0.45897    0.49108   Detroit         0.54103    0.50892    -1.5    -1.9137
Philadelphia   0.56207    0.50745   N.Y. Giants     0.43793    0.49255     2.5     2.8362
Seattle        0.67676    0.49269   Dallas          0.32324    0.50731     9.5     9.1610
Atlanta        0.57072    0.50541   Chicago         0.42928    0.49459     3.0     3.2441
Houston        0.44896    0.50370   Indianapolis    0.55104    0.49630    -2.5    -2.3323
Arizona        0.71013     .        Washington      0.28987     .           .     11.5705
Tennessee      0.68681     .        Jacksonville    0.31319     .           .      9.6215

NCAA Week 7

I wasn’t able to post these probabilities for week 6 due to a hard drive crash. Things are up and running again now. Thanks to the readers that gave advice or sent some needed data files to help me get the first month of the season restored.
These picks have not gotten off to a good start. The top pick is 2-3 while the top 5 picks are 9-16, only 26%.

home                p(win)  p(cover)  road               p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

Kent               0.60954   0.64251  Massachusetts     0.39046   0.35749   -2.0    5.8828
Syracuse           0.23993   0.61430  Florida St.       0.76007   0.38570  -24.0  -17.7474
Miami (Fla.)       0.68695   0.38717  Cincinnati        0.31305   0.61283   17.0   10.9256
Marshall           0.76799   0.39283  Middle Tenn.      0.23201   0.60717   24.5   18.6666
Wisconsin          0.78728   0.40989  Illinois          0.21272   0.59011   26.5   21.5507
Nevada             0.53944   0.58738  Colorado St.      0.46056   0.41262   -2.5    1.9821
UCLA               0.54984   0.58658  Oregon            0.45016   0.41342   -2.0    2.6088
Arizona            0.53406   0.58071  USC               0.46594   0.41929   -2.5    1.7697
Georgia St.        0.27088   0.42509  Arkansas St.      0.72912   0.57491  -10.5  -14.4524
Central Florida    0.48327   0.42585  BYU               0.51673   0.57415    3.0   -0.8546
Notre Dame         0.78326   0.57215  North Carolina    0.21674   0.42785   16.5   20.2914
Clemson            0.61001   0.43144  Louisville        0.38999   0.56856    9.5    5.9095
Troy St.           0.55598   0.43213  New Mexico St.    0.44402   0.56787    6.5    2.9301
Iowa St.           0.61892   0.56767  Toledo            0.38108   0.43233    3.0    6.6763
UAB                0.55319   0.43747  North Texas       0.44681   0.56253    6.5    2.9818
Texas-San Antonio  0.61795   0.44162  Florida Intl.     0.38205   0.55838   10.0    6.7684
Northern Ill.      0.70177   0.55725  Central Mich.     0.29823   0.44275    9.0   11.9580
Missouri           0.49875   0.55702  Georgia           0.50125   0.44298   -3.0   -0.0639
NC St.             0.51193   0.44391  Boston College    0.48807   0.55609    3.5    0.6087
California         0.50655   0.44429  Washington        0.49345   0.55571    3.5    0.3648
Kentucky           0.76344   0.44436  Louisiana-Monroe  0.23656   0.55564   21.0   18.0680
Arkansas           0.38642   0.55463  Alabama           0.61358   0.44537   -9.0   -6.1434
Iowa               0.60838   0.55232  Indiana           0.39162   0.44768    3.0    5.6407
Michigan           0.46991   0.45038  Penn St.          0.53009   0.54962    1.0   -1.5206
Hawaii             0.54536   0.45093  Wyoming           0.45464   0.54907    5.0    2.4004
Utah St.           0.66354   0.54808  Air Force         0.33646   0.45192    7.0    9.5852
Ball St.           0.58355   0.54752  Western Mich.     0.41645   0.45248    2.0    4.5435
Tulane             0.60229   0.54654  Connecticut       0.39771   0.45346    3.0    5.3800
Texas A&M          0.50224   0.45347  Mississippi       0.49776   0.54653    2.5    0.1139
Ohio               0.45523   0.45523  Bowling Green     0.54477   0.54477    0.0   -2.3824
Georgia Tech       0.59436   0.53911  Duke              0.40564   0.46089    3.0    5.0360
Temple             0.76856   0.53493  Tulsa             0.23144   0.46507   17.5   19.4021
Purdue             0.22676   0.52929  Michigan St.      0.77324   0.47071  -21.0  -19.4497
Georgia Southern   0.78776   0.47154  Idaho             0.21224   0.52846   23.5   21.9514
Eastern Mich.      0.29205   0.52784  Buffalo           0.70795   0.47216  -14.5  -13.0096
Army               0.47338   0.47338  Rice              0.52662   0.52662    0.0   -1.3611
Akron              0.73413   0.52628  Miami (Ohio)      0.26587   0.47372   13.5   14.8589
Stanford           0.74285   0.47426  Washington St.    0.25715   0.52574   17.0   15.6716
Florida            0.49316   0.52269  LSU               0.50684   0.47731   -1.5   -0.3471
Oklahoma           0.74033   0.52145  Texas             0.25967   0.47855   14.5   15.620
Kansas             0.22793   0.52134  Oklahoma St.      0.77207   0.47866  -20.5  -19.3685
New Mexico         0.43967   0.51716  San Diego St.     0.56033   0.48284   -4.0   -3.1217
Baylor             0.62928   0.48380  TCU               0.37072   0.51620    8.0    7.1527
Mississippi St.    0.42641   0.48511  Auburn            0.57359   0.51489   -3.0   -3.7444
Memphis            0.65263   0.51445  Houston           0.34737   0.48555    8.5    9.3135
Texas Tech         0.39058   0.49222  West Va.          0.60942   0.50778   -5.5   -5.9031
UNLV               0.32053   0.50499  Fresno St.        0.67947   0.49501  -10.5  -10.2462
UTEP               0.55415   0.49560  Old Dominion      0.44585   0.50440    3.0    2.7765
Minnesota          0.58158   0.50361  Northwestern      0.41842   0.49639    4.0    4.1808
South Florida      0.25727   0.49871  East Carolina     0.74273   0.50129  -16.0  -16.068

Up again

I am basically back up and running again. The only thing I left to rewrite is the code for my own PerformanZ Ratings, which wasn’t off to a great start anyway. I’ll get to that in the next couple of days.

Also I have to rederive the formulas I was using to calculate the probabilities.

And I am still missing NCAA week 5 data.

missing ncaa week 5

I had ncaa weeks 1-4 stored in the archive page of the website. I am missing week 5. Does anybody happen to have the csv file from week 5? If so could you email it to me.

almost done

I spent the entire day working on the NFL and have got that page up. I’m missing a couple of systems that I maintain. I wish I could add them but they are not something I can do quickly. In fact several of the systems I maintain are using last years final ratings for this weeks predictions.
Adding in the results from the first month is also something that will only be done over time.

ncaa update

I just put up files for NCAA for this week. By my count I still have 8 systems missing. I will try to add those tomorrow. As of right now I don’t actually have the code to score the results. Let me know if you see any mistakes, I am sure there are probably several.

I haven’t even looked at NFL yet. I don’t know what I will be able to do with that this week. Perhaps I can work on it Saturday and Sunday and just get out what I can get to. But don’t count on the numbers.

update: I’ve got a lot done on ncaa. I’m working on scoring the results next. I don’t have Pugh’s email so I can’t add his numbers right now. I’m having troubles with dwiggens and Loudsound.
After that I guess I will move to NFL. I’ll try working all day saturday and sunday on it. I can probably get something up but it may be after games have started.

computer problems

Looks like I have a failing hard drive. So I am not sure when any more updates will happen. I at least got the first pass of the new week of ncaa posted.

Update: It is not looking good at all. I have not been able to recover much from a crashed hard drive. I could be down for a while.

Update: I wasn’t able to recover anything football related from my hard drive. The good news is that I had a backup. The bad news is that was from the 2009 season. That will help somewhat but I still have a lot of work to do. I’ve changed the way I get the lines since then and that is a pretty big job to rewrite that. That is my first step. Then I can pull in the systems that have been with me since 09.

Update: I am working on getting the NCAA done. I think I will be able to have that collected fairly soon. This week, but it may be after some games. I have some done I could put up. I think I will have to skip the NFL and try to get it for next week. The first 4 weeks of NFL will also be lost.

NFL Week 4

The numbers have been better in the NFL. The top 3 games are 6-3 and the top game 2-1.


 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road           p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

 Chicago        0.60072   0.63877  Green Bay     0.39928   0.36123   -1.5    3.8297
 San Diego      0.87154   0.63619  Jacksonville  0.12846   0.36381   13.5   19.4867
 Pittsburgh     0.77423   0.60567  Tampa Bay     0.22577   0.39433    7.5   11.6466
 Houston        0.50744   0.41717  Buffalo       0.49256   0.58283    3.5    0.2866
 Kansas City    0.45799   0.55190  New England   0.54201   0.44810   -3.5   -1.5647
 Minnesota      0.46703   0.54658  Atlanta       0.53297   0.45342   -3.0   -1.2425
 Dallas         0.46463   0.54615  New Orleans   0.53537   0.45385   -3.0   -1.3010
 Washington     0.55180   0.45862  N.Y. Giants   0.44820   0.54138    3.5    1.9466
 San Francisco  0.60364   0.47262  Philadelphia  0.39636   0.52738    5.0    3.9639
 Baltimore      0.61444   0.52569  Carolina      0.38556   0.47431    3.5    4.4960
 Indianapolis   0.68191   0.48605  Tennessee     0.31809   0.51395    7.5    6.9837
 N.Y. Jets      0.44604   0.48720  Detroit       0.55396   0.51280   -1.5   -1.9649
 Oakland        0.39566   0.48825  Miami         0.60434   0.51175   -3.5   -3.9387