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NFL Divisional Playoffs

  home           p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)   line   lineavg

  Green Bay     0.59256    0.43811   Dallas         0.40744    0.56189    7.0    4.2221
  Denver        0.63827    0.46731   Indianapolis   0.36173    0.53269    8.0    6.5460
  Seattle       0.73402    0.51969   Carolina       0.26598    0.48031   12.0   12.8822
  New England   0.65145    0.49735   Baltimore      0.34855    0.50265    7.5    7.3808

NFL Wildcard playoffs

If the BCS was still being used the championship game would have been Alabama vs Florida St. With Alabama most likely winning easy and continuing the SEC overhype. I think now we know that all those BCS years the champ was still the ‘mythical’ national champion.

Last week the top 3 NFL picks went 3-0 to finish the regular season 30-18, 62.5. Last season the top 3 were 29-18-1. So two very similar seasons back to back. The top game of the week was 10-6, also 62.5%.
So why are you paying for a service and still getting a losing record?
Interestingly two years ago the top 3 NFL games were only 14-28. Which is about what happened with the NCAA numbers this season.
Only one of the games is worth considering this week, Arizona at Carolina playing again with their third string qb.

 home            p(win)   p(cover)      road       p(win)   p(cover)   line    lineavg

  Carolina       0.47526    0.32776   Arizona      0.52474    0.67224    7.5   -1.11671
  Indianapolis   0.60211    0.53952   Cincinnati   0.39789    0.46048    3.0    4.80465
  Dallas         0.63076    0.47145   Detroit      0.36924    0.52855    7.5    6.21634
  Pittsburgh     0.55781    0.49184   Baltimore    0.44219    0.50816    3.0    2.63254

NFL week 17

The top 3 NFL picks have been consistently getting 2 out of 3 correct. The top game is 9-6, the top 3 are 27-18.
Be aware that that week the top two games are picking teams playing their 3rd string quarterbacks.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

San Francisco   0.49136    0.33912   Arizona        0.50864    0.66088     7.5    -0.3868
Baltimore       0.68905    0.39458   Cleveland      0.31095    0.60542    14.5     9.6077
Washington      0.32669    0.39938   Dallas         0.67331    0.60062    -4.0    -8.6984
New England     0.69718    0.57052   Buffalo        0.30282    0.42948     7.0    10.2317
Kansas City     0.58543    0.56412   San Diego      0.41457    0.43588     1.0     3.8825
Tennessee       0.28948    0.43899   Indianapolis   0.71052    0.56101    -8.5   -11.3231
Houston         0.72578    0.56042   Jacksonville   0.27422    0.43958     9.5    12.2395
Miami           0.68528    0.55274   N.Y. Jets      0.31472    0.44726     7.0     9.3845
Green Bay       0.64259    0.45142   Detroit        0.35741    0.54858     9.0     6.8178
N.Y. Giants     0.47360    0.45147   Philadelphia   0.52640    0.54853     1.0    -1.1790
Atlanta         0.59758    0.54455   Carolina       0.40242    0.45545     2.5     4.5055
Seattle         0.72498    0.48390   St. Louis      0.27502    0.51610    13.0    12.2725
Tampa Bay       0.42778    0.51590   New Orleans    0.57222    0.48410    -4.0    -3.2880
Pittsburgh      0.56425    0.48649   Cincinnati     0.43575    0.51351     3.5     2.8985
Denver          0.76674    0.51061   Oakland        0.23326    0.48939    15.5    15.9797
Minnesota       0.64332    0.49735   Chicago        0.35668    0.50265     7.0     6.8813

Bowl games

The regular season didn’t go so well so not sure I would trust these either.

home                  p(win)  p(cover)  road            p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

Alabama              0.57766   0.38654  Ohio St.       0.42234   0.61346   10.0    4.0067
Kansas St.           0.56155   0.58990  UCLA           0.43845   0.41010   -1.5    3.1128
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.43583   0.41763  Nevada         0.56417   0.58237    1.0   -3.3877
South Carolina       0.49100   0.56977  Miami (Fla.)   0.50900   0.43023   -4.0   -0.4505
Auburn               0.57192   0.43662  Wisconsin      0.42808   0.56338    7.0    3.7278
Western Kentucky     0.61703   0.56156  Central Mich.  0.38297   0.43844    3.0    6.1036
Texas A&M            0.49164   0.56053  West Va.       0.50836   0.43947   -3.5   -0.4201
Air Force            0.53581   0.55538  Western Mich.  0.46419   0.44462   -1.0    1.7992
Cincinnati           0.50463   0.44602  Virginia Tech  0.49537   0.55398    3.0    0.2350
USC                  0.58207   0.44645  Nebraska       0.41793   0.55355    7.0    4.2579
Mississippi St.      0.59965   0.45586  Georgia Tech   0.40035   0.54414    7.5    5.2407
Rice                 0.49835   0.45900  Fresno St.     0.50165   0.54100    2.0   -0.0835
LSU                  0.66941   0.54038  Notre Dame     0.33059   0.45962    7.5    9.5736
Oregon               0.64144   0.46071  Florida St.    0.35856   0.53929   10.0    7.9328
Georgia              0.66025   0.53581  Louisville     0.33975   0.46419    7.0    8.8066
Stanford             0.70421   0.46647  Maryland       0.29579   0.53353   14.0   12.2639
North Carolina       0.52664   0.46676  Rutgers        0.47336   0.53324    3.0    1.3337
San Diego St.        0.51761   0.46759  Navy           0.48239   0.53241    2.5    0.8787
Arkansas St.         0.45857   0.52760  Toledo         0.54143   0.47240   -3.5   -2.1034
Houston              0.41709   0.47533  Pittsburgh     0.58291   0.52467   -3.0   -4.2337
Baylor               0.52596   0.47561  Michigan St.   0.47404   0.52439    2.5    1.2893
Arkansas             0.63101   0.52083  Texas          0.36899   0.47917    6.0    7.0596
Boston College       0.56710   0.51735  Penn St.       0.43290   0.48265    2.5    3.3558
Tennessee            0.55491   0.48535  Iowa           0.44509   0.51465    3.5    2.7681
Bowling Green        0.46461   0.51409  South Alabama  0.53539   0.48591   -2.5   -1.7899
Florida              0.64773   0.51386  East Carolina  0.35227   0.48614    7.5    8.2150
TCU                  0.57115   0.51357  Mississippi    0.42885   0.48643    3.0    3.6929
Washington           0.59421   0.48734  Oklahoma St.   0.40579   0.51266    5.5    4.8650
Oklahoma             0.56827   0.50989  Clemson        0.43173   0.49011    3.0    3.4992
Louisiana Tech       0.61612   0.50938  Illinois       0.38388   0.49062    6.0    6.5019
Marshall             0.66703   0.49186  Northern Ill.  0.33297   0.50814   10.0    9.5770
Central Florida      0.54483   0.49550  NC St.         0.45517   0.50450    2.5    2.2733
Utah St.             0.68143   0.50414  UTEP           0.31857   0.49586   10.0   10.2070
Arizona              0.56281   0.50397  Boise St.      0.43719   0.49603    3.0    3.1999
Memphis              0.53636   0.49652  BYU            0.46364   0.50348    2.0    1.8262
Arizona St.          0.64021   0.49869  Duke           0.35979   0.50131    7.5    7.4349
Missouri             0.59650   0.49877  Minnesota      0.40350   0.50123    5.0    4.9390
Colorado St.         0.44165   0.50058  Utah           0.55835   0.49942   -3.0   -2.9706

NFL wek 16

The NFL numbers continue to be consistently pretty good. They top game is now 9-5 on the season and the top 3 are 25-17.
You might want to think twice about any game this week. The top 3 games all involve quarterback issues and a fourth game is off the board due to a QB injury.

home             p(win)   p(cover)   road            p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Arizona         0.47199    0.66834   Seattle        0.52801    0.33166    -9.5    -1.2460
Chicago         0.37942    0.58149   Detroit        0.62058    0.41851    -9.5    -5.7312
Houston         0.46310    0.57390   Baltimore      0.53690    0.42610    -5.0    -1.6499
New Orleans     0.58167    0.42771   Atlanta        0.41833    0.57229     7.0     3.7217
Dallas          0.48488    0.42968   Indianapolis   0.51512    0.57032     2.5    -0.6712
N.Y. Jets       0.25526    0.44072   New England    0.74474    0.55928   -11.5   -14.2813
Pittsburgh      0.50941    0.44336   Kansas City    0.49059    0.55664     3.0     0.4237
Miami           0.63438    0.47476   Minnesota      0.36562    0.52524     7.5     6.3725
Cincinnati      0.40424    0.47856   Denver         0.59576    0.52144    -3.5    -4.4726
Tampa Bay       0.29495    0.51230   Green Bay      0.70505    0.48770   -11.5   -10.9370
St. Louis       0.62340    0.50721   N.Y. Giants    0.37660    0.49279     5.5     5.8230
Oakland         0.35139    0.49348   Buffalo        0.64861    0.50652    -7.0    -7.2968
Washington      0.32266    0.50258   Philadelphia   0.67734    0.49742    -9.0    -8.8843
Jacksonville    0.57751    0.50240   Tennessee      0.42249    0.49760     3.5     3.6096
San Francisco   0.49980    0.49980   San Diego      0.50020    0.50020     0.0    -0.0088
Carolina        0.54716     .        Cleveland      0.45284     .           .      2.1440

NFL Week 15

The highest game of the week is 8-5, the top 3 games of the week are 23-16.
There is a Thursday night pick on Arizona. And note the #2 game involves Carolina which lost their QB.

home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

St. Louis      0.51433    0.41659   Arizona         0.48567    0.58341     4.5     0.6470
Carolina       0.63206    0.57184   Tampa Bay       0.36794    0.42816     3.0     6.2665
Buffalo        0.46259    0.56206   Green Bay       0.53741    0.43794    -4.5    -1.6840
Philadelphia   0.62249    0.56089   Dallas          0.37751    0.43911     3.0     5.7492
Chicago        0.49898    0.55427   New Orleans     0.50102    0.44573    -2.5    -0.0457
Baltimore      0.77102    0.54519   Jacksonville    0.22898    0.45481    14.5    16.5749
Detroit        0.65810    0.45809   Minnesota       0.34190    0.54191     9.5     7.6345
Kansas City    0.73241    0.52934   Oakland         0.26759    0.47066    11.5    12.8242
San Diego      0.43168    0.52063   Denver          0.56832    0.47937    -4.0    -3.0823
New England    0.68742    0.51337   Miami           0.31258    0.48663     9.0     9.6045
Atlanta        0.48799    0.51006   Pittsburgh      0.51201    0.48994    -1.0    -0.5442
Indianapolis   0.64790    0.49034   Houston         0.35210    0.50966     7.5     7.0718
Tennessee      0.48262    0.50459   N.Y. Jets       0.51738    0.49541    -1.0    -0.7913
Cleveland      0.51809    0.49573   Cincinnati      0.48191    0.50427     1.0     0.8094
Seattle        0.70228    0.50289   San Francisco   0.29772    0.49711    10.5    10.6310
N.Y. Giants    0.64496    0.49993   Washington      0.35504    0.50007     7.0     6.9968

NFL Week 14

Top game is 7-5, top 3 are 21-15


home            p(win)   p(cover)   road             p(win)   p(cover)    line    lineavg

Oakland        0.37845    0.57665   San Francisco   0.62155    0.42335    -9.5    -5.8952
Arizona        0.55121    0.55121   Kansas City     0.44879    0.44879     0.0     2.2998
Chicago        0.46845    0.54658   Dallas          0.53155    0.45342    -3.5    -1.4101
New Orleans    0.68313    0.45988   Carolina        0.31687    0.54012    11.0     9.2019
Cincinnati     0.60234    0.53894   Pittsburgh      0.39766    0.46106     3.0     4.7555
Miami          0.58940    0.53619   Baltimore       0.41060    0.46381     2.5     4.1380
Philadelphia   0.53307    0.53307   Seattle         0.46693    0.46693     0.0     1.4863
Detroit        0.72103    0.53228   Tampa Bay       0.27897    0.46772    10.5    11.9619
Denver         0.67359    0.47063   Buffalo         0.32641    0.52937    10.0     8.6767
Tennessee      0.47190    0.47190   N.Y. Giants     0.52810    0.52810     0.0    -1.2496
San Diego      0.39963    0.47395   New England     0.60037    0.52605    -3.5    -4.6756
Washington     0.42177    0.47547   St. Louis       0.57823    0.52453    -2.5    -3.6119
Green Bay      0.72424    0.48133   Atlanta         0.27576    0.51867    13.0    12.1599
Cleveland      0.40708    0.48277   Indianapolis    0.59292    0.51723    -3.5    -4.2701
Jacksonville   0.36887    0.48421   Houston         0.63113    0.51579    -5.5    -6.2051
Minnesota      0.64084    0.49405   N.Y. Jets       0.35916    0.50595     7.0     6.7341

NCAA Week 15

The top game is 5-8 ATS, the top 5 only 21-43.

 home            p(win)  p(cover)  road              p(win)  p(cover)   line   lineavg

  Ohio St.       0.52501   0.61047  Wisconsin        0.47499   0.38953   -4.5    1.2524
  Oregon         0.68198   0.40408  Arizona          0.31802   0.59592   15.0   10.1143
  Alabama        0.67270   0.40536  Missouri         0.32730   0.59464   14.5    9.6141
  East Carolina  0.56920   0.43028  Central Florida  0.43080   0.56972    7.0    3.4866
  Georgia Tech   0.46408   0.55027  Florida St.      0.53592   0.44973   -4.5   -1.8708
  Boise St.      0.77121   0.45507  Fresno St.       0.22879   0.54493   21.0   18.6780
  Baylor         0.61336   0.45634  Kansas St.       0.38664   0.54366    8.0    5.8349
  Tulane         0.40110   0.45861  Temple           0.59890   0.54139   -3.0   -5.0615
  Marshall       0.66461   0.46177  Louisiana Tech   0.33539   0.53823   11.0    9.0744
  TCU            0.84598   0.46627  Iowa St.         0.15402   0.53373   34.0   32.2000
  Bowling Green  0.35681   0.47615  Northern Ill.    0.64319   0.52385   -6.5   -7.6963
  Oklahoma       0.77219   0.47842  Oklahoma St.     0.22781   0.52158   20.0   18.8849
  Connecticut    0.69634   0.48823  SMU              0.30366   0.51177   12.0   11.4050
  Cincinnati     0.63352   0.50205  Houston          0.36648   0.49795    7.0    7.1028

NFL tip

A few years ago I started a new rating system. The idea was to simply take the least squares regression model and add in a term for turnovers. The thought is the line is an accurate predictor of the outcome, except that it has a (rather large actually) random error. If turnovers can explain some of that random error then theoretically this least squares adjusted for turnovers should do well against the spread. The results have been good so far, 58% ATS last year, 58% ATS this year.
But narrowing it down a bit, Look at games where the difference between this systems predictions and the line is between 1.5 and 4.5 it has been accurate 69% of the time.
Something to watch going forward.

NCAA week 14

The NCAA picks continue to lose. They have gone from bad to interesting.
The top game is 5-7, the top 5 are 19-40-1. So the NFL games are hitting over 60% while the NCAA games are only 32%.
This is early and plenty of games do not have a line yet.

  home               p(win) p(cover) road                 p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

  Massachusetts     0.55665  0.59452 Buffalo             0.44335  0.40548  -2.0   2.8524
  Marshall          0.78073  0.42787 Western Kentucky    0.21927  0.57213  23.5  19.7506
  Temple            0.42658  0.56477 Cincinnati          0.57342  0.43523  -7.0  -3.7263
  Memphis           0.81160  0.56001 Connecticut         0.18840  0.43999  21.0  24.0896
  Eastern Mich.     0.21443  0.55870 Toledo              0.78557  0.44130 -23.0 -20.0193
  Southern Miss.    0.36953  0.44262 UAB                 0.63047  0.55738  -4.0  -6.8905
  South Alabama     0.37485  0.55505 Navy                0.62515  0.44495  -9.5  -6.6845
  Fresno St.        0.65131  0.44545 Hawaii              0.34869  0.55455  11.0   8.2322
  Northwestern      0.68859  0.55399 Illinois            0.31141  0.44601   8.0  10.7296
  Washington St.    0.38995  0.44655 Washington          0.61005  0.55345  -3.0  -5.6666
  Kansas St.        0.82284  0.44931 Kansas              0.17716  0.55069  28.5  25.9109
  California        0.53861  0.44991 BYU                 0.46139  0.55009   4.5   1.9549
  Wisconsin         0.70550  0.45034 Minnesota           0.29450  0.54966  14.5  11.9953
  Texas-San Antonio 0.54722  0.45040 North Texas         0.45278  0.54960   5.0   2.4375
  Mississippi       0.49992  0.54928 Mississippi St.     0.50008  0.45072  -2.5  -0.0040
  Virginia Tech     0.52946  0.54917 Virginia            0.47054  0.45083  -1.0   1.4759
  Florida St.       0.67323  0.54863 Florida             0.32677  0.45137   7.5  10.0591
  Boise St.         0.62668  0.45159 Utah St.            0.37332  0.54841   9.0   6.5956
  UCLA              0.63783  0.54777 Stanford            0.36217  0.45223   5.0   7.4308
  New Mexico        0.54426  0.45361 Wyoming             0.45574  0.54639   4.5   2.1966
  UNLV              0.29705  0.45444 Nevada              0.70295  0.54556  -9.5 -11.7948
  Western Mich.     0.60818  0.45604 Northern Ill.       0.39182  0.54396   8.0   5.7426
  Miami (Ohio)      0.46837  0.53888 Ohio                0.53163  0.46112  -3.5  -1.5685
  Louisville        0.72971  0.53830 Kentucky            0.27029  0.46170  12.5  14.4913
  North Carolina    0.65367  0.53797 NC St.              0.34633  0.46203   6.5   8.4268
  Bowling Green     0.64968  0.46336 Ball St.            0.35032  0.53664  10.0   8.1466
  Georgia Southern  0.71177  0.46343 Louisiana-Monroe    0.28823  0.53657  14.5  12.6409
  Colorado          0.31005  0.46413 Utah                0.68995  0.53587  -9.0 -10.7989
  Texas A&M         0.47387  0.53398 LSU                 0.52613  0.46602  -3.0  -1.3029
  Oregon St.        0.20647  0.46695 Oregon              0.79353  0.53305 -19.5 -21.1727
  Iowa              0.46729  0.46729 Nebraska            0.53271  0.53271   0.0  -1.6290
  Tulsa             0.24832  0.52976 East Carolina       0.75168  0.47024 -17.5 -16.0140
  Georgia           0.69306  0.47311 Georgia Tech        0.30694  0.52689  12.5  11.1401
  Indiana           0.57458  0.52617 Purdue              0.42542  0.47383   2.5   3.8183
  SMU               0.20951  0.52060 Houston             0.79049  0.47940 -22.0 -20.9501
  Vanderbilt        0.25221  0.51961 Tennessee           0.74779  0.48039 -17.0 -15.9993
  Troy St.          0.32674  0.51857 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.67326  0.48143 -10.5  -9.5761
  Texas             0.35392  0.48166 TCU                 0.64608  0.51834  -7.0  -7.9252
  Arkansas St.      0.79585  0.48172 New Mexico St.      0.20415  0.51828  22.5  21.5740
  Georgia St.       0.28760  0.51814 Texas St.           0.71240  0.48186 -13.5 -12.5885
  Appalachian St.   0.76138  0.51678 Idaho               0.23862  0.48322  17.0  17.8783
  Duke              0.77441  0.48420 Wake Forest         0.22559  0.51580  19.5  18.7034
  South Florida     0.30274  0.51435 Central Florida     0.69726  0.48565 -12.0 -11.2864
  Air Force         0.37739  0.51287 Colorado St.        0.62261  0.48713  -7.0  -6.3647
  UTEP              0.56713  0.48745 Middle Tenn.        0.43287  0.51255   4.0   3.3776
  Kent              0.44134  0.51088 Akron               0.55866  0.48912  -3.5  -2.9575
  Maryland          0.65692  0.51057 Rutgers             0.34308  0.48943   8.0   8.5272
  USC               0.62447  0.49164 Notre Dame          0.37553  0.50836   7.0   6.5805
  Texas Tech        0.18132  0.49213 Baylor              0.81868  0.50787 -25.0 -25.4022
  Alabama           0.67640  0.50634 Auburn              0.32360  0.49366   9.5   9.8158
  Louisiana Tech    0.63339  0.50428 Rice                0.36661  0.49572   7.0   7.2181
  Boston College    0.69176  0.49721 Syracuse            0.30824  0.50279  11.0  10.8615
  Ohio St.          0.79241  0.49766 Michigan            0.20759  0.50234  21.0  20.8828
  Penn St.          0.28167  0.50044 Michigan St.        0.71833  0.49956 -13.0 -12.9783
  Florida Atlantic  0.55854  0.49977 Old Dominion        0.44146  0.50023   3.0   2.9884
  Arizona           0.56229   .      Arizona St.         0.43771   .         .    3.1547
Clemson         0.58926       .      South Carolina   0.41074       .        .      4.6889
Iowa St.        0.29011       .      West Va.         0.70989       .        .    -12.7140
Miami (Fla.)    0.67891       .      Pittsburgh       0.32109       .        .     10.0933
Missouri        0.51100       .      Arkansas         0.48900       .        .      0.5610
San Diego St.   0.69468       .      San Jose St.     0.30532       .        .     11.346