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testing

I think it is clear at this point that these ‘angles’ don’t work. They were situations that had worked over the past years but since posting them they are all basically 50%.

NFL
Indianapolis -1.5, 61%
Detroit 4.5, 57%
Washington -3, 57%

These have a 61% chance of covering: 5-4
Ohio St. -14
Northwestern +3
Michigan St -0
Louisiana Tech +2
USC -2.5

These have 58% chance of covering: now 9-9
LOuis. Monroe +7.5
Mass. +41
WIsconsin +4

These have 55% chance of covering: now 0-7
Colorado st +28.5
Kansas St +6.5
San Jose St +15
Tennessess +6.5
Virginia Tech +6.5

These have 55% chance of covering: to date 5-4
None this week

NFL Week 11

The NFL results have been fairly consistent too, doing a little better. Now 17-13 on the top 3 games, 5-5 on the top game.
Straight up expectations are +2 for the season, ATS is -4.
This week expect 8-5 and 6-6.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover) line  lineavg

Washington           0.51242  0.56977 Houston              0.48758  0.43023 -3.0   0.4329
Detroit              0.43173  0.54314 Carolina             0.56827  0.45686 -4.5  -2.3865
LA Rams              0.54234  0.45908 Kansas City          0.45766  0.54092  3.5   1.4873
Seattle              0.62306  0.52780 Green Bay            0.37694  0.47220  3.0   4.3625
New Orleans          0.76167  0.52650 Philadelphia         0.23833  0.47350  9.0  10.3268
Indianapolis         0.50689  0.47439 Tennessee            0.49311  0.52561  1.5   0.2416
N.Y. Giants          0.50277  0.48180 Tampa Bay            0.49723  0.51820  1.0   0.0986
Chicago              0.60897  0.51797 Minnesota            0.39103  0.48203  3.0   3.8845
LA Chargers          0.71091  0.51594 Denver               0.28909  0.48406  7.0   7.7830
Atlanta              0.58658  0.49023 Dallas               0.41342  0.50977  3.5   3.0234
Jacksonville         0.32770  0.49209 Pittsburgh           0.67230  0.50791 -6.0  -6.3929
Arizona              0.65412  0.49216 Oakland              0.34588  0.50784  6.0   5.6126
Baltimore            0.70617   .      Cincinnati           0.29383   .        .    7.7424

NCAA Week 12

One thing you can certainly say about this college season is it has been consistent. The ATS numbers have been a consistently bad 38-40% for over a month now. Another 1-4 week drops the season record of the top 5 games to 21-33-1. The top game is 4-6-1. All games as a whole are running 49%, so this is saying that it is only the games at the top that are bad.
Straight up performance continues to do well, they matched the expected record exactly last week. ATS under-performed as usual. Straight up is +4 on the season while ATS is -38.5. This week expect 45-16 and 33-28.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Northern Ill.        0.66435  0.61889 Miami (Ohio)         0.33565  0.38111   0.0   6.9585
Nebraska             0.33248  0.40348 Michigan St.         0.66752  0.59652  -1.5  -7.1314
Minnesota            0.39173  0.40549 Northwestern         0.60827  0.59451   1.0  -4.4898
Florida St.          0.33586  0.40677 Boston College       0.66414  0.59323  -1.5  -6.9076
Oklahoma             0.96420  0.40949 Kansas               0.03580  0.59051  35.5  30.1793
Akron                0.76041  0.58725 Bowling Green        0.23959  0.41275   6.5  11.5609
Marshall             0.90672  0.41549 Texas-San Antonio    0.09328  0.58451  27.0  22.0462
East Carolina        0.76957  0.41790 Connecticut          0.23043  0.58210  17.0  12.2096
Illinois             0.12871  0.42097 Iowa                 0.87129  0.57903 -14.5 -19.1606
Wyoming              0.45093  0.42202 Air Force            0.54907  0.57798   2.5  -2.0061
Washington           0.95814  0.43017 Oregon St.           0.04186  0.56983  33.5  29.3793
SMU                  0.40203  0.56746 Memphis              0.59797  0.43254  -8.0  -4.0843
Texas A&M            0.78206  0.43589 UAB                  0.21794  0.56411  17.0  13.2218
Washington St.       0.80739  0.56313 Arizona              0.19261  0.43687  10.5  14.1420
Colorado             0.26102  0.44090 Utah                 0.73898  0.55910  -7.0 -10.4036
Clemson              0.93299  0.44328 Duke                 0.06701  0.55672  28.5  25.1778
Fresno St.           0.83249  0.55541 San Diego St.        0.16751  0.44459  13.0  16.2506
Wake Forest          0.40090  0.55110 Pittsburgh           0.59910  0.44890  -7.0  -4.0647
Colorado St.         0.07104  0.54848 Utah St.             0.92896  0.45152 -28.0 -25.1352
Kent                 0.19493  0.45206 Toledo               0.80507  0.54794 -11.5 -14.2894
LSU                  0.99195  0.54764 Rice                 0.00805  0.45236  42.0  44.9538
California           0.39114  0.45669 Stanford             0.60886  0.54331  -2.0  -4.4901
Baylor               0.48920  0.45774 TCU                  0.51080  0.54226   2.0  -0.4461
Oregon               0.53024  0.46020 Arizona St.          0.46976  0.53980   3.5   1.2223
Michigan             0.94152  0.46040 Indiana              0.05848  0.53960  28.5  26.1914
Houston              0.67631  0.46474 Tulane               0.32369  0.53526   9.5   7.4690
Navy                 0.59866  0.46623 Tulsa                0.40134  0.53377   6.0   4.0601
Purdue               0.56450  0.46774 Wisconsin            0.43550  0.53226   4.5   2.6445
Oklahoma St.         0.33831  0.46796 West Va.             0.66169  0.53204  -5.0  -6.8508
Georgia              0.99202  0.53019 Massachusetts        0.00798  0.46981  41.5  43.3294
Mississippi St.      0.91390  0.52886 Arkansas             0.08610  0.47114  21.5  23.1963
UCLA                 0.39007  0.47367 USC                  0.60993  0.52633  -3.0  -4.5070
Central Florida      0.69176  0.52527 Cincinnati           0.30824  0.47473   7.0   8.4820
North Texas          0.62614  0.52453 Florida Atlantic     0.37386  0.47547   4.0   5.4371
Tennessee            0.33877  0.47565 Missouri             0.66123  0.52435  -5.5  -6.9147
Notre Dame           0.75650  0.52428 Syracuse             0.24350  0.47572  10.0  11.4008
Appalachian St.      0.94608  0.47593 Georgia St.          0.05392  0.52407  28.0  26.6050
Temple               0.76498  0.47633 South Florida        0.23502  0.52367  13.5  12.1187
Virginia Tech        0.39845  0.52258 Miami (Fla.)         0.60155  0.47742  -5.5  -4.2009
Maryland             0.20315  0.52173 Ohio St.             0.79685  0.47827 -15.0 -13.7410
Southern Miss.       0.49064  0.51917 Louisiana Tech       0.50936  0.48083  -1.5  -0.3887
Coastal Carolina     0.35441  0.51621 Georgia Southern     0.64559  0.48379  -7.0  -6.0697
Louisville           0.17764  0.51612 NC St.               0.82236  0.48388 -16.5 -15.5579
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.84294  0.48420 South Alabama        0.15706  0.51580  17.5  16.5869
Texas                0.55534  0.48659 Iowa St.             0.44466  0.51341   3.0   2.2350
Charlotte            0.34418  0.48776 Florida Intl.        0.65582  0.51224  -6.0  -6.7134
Ball St.             0.34904  0.51216 Western Mich.        0.65096  0.48784  -7.0  -6.3023
Kentucky             0.82883  0.48841 Middle Tenn.         0.17117  0.51159  16.5  15.8259
Hawaii               0.63701  0.48868 UNLV                 0.36299  0.51132   6.5   5.8417
BYU                  0.92794  0.50926 New Mexico St.       0.07206  0.49074  24.0  24.5408
Auburn               0.94194  0.49253 Liberty              0.05806  0.50747  28.0  27.5538
Arkansas St.         0.69732  0.50735 Louisiana-Monroe     0.30268  0.49265   8.0   8.4222
Georgia Tech         0.63274  0.49271 Virginia             0.36726  0.50729   6.0   5.5788
Kansas St.           0.35327  0.49482 Texas Tech           0.64673  0.50518  -6.0  -6.3019
Rutgers              0.05210  0.50328 Penn St.             0.94790  0.49672 -28.0 -27.8064
San Jose St.         0.19086  0.49801 Nevada               0.80914  0.50199 -14.5 -14.6160
Vanderbilt           0.57489  0.50143 Mississippi          0.42511  0.49857   3.0   3.0820
Ohio                 0.49811  0.49864 Buffalo              0.50189  0.50136   0.0  -0.0786
New Mexico           0.11276  0.49927 Boise St.            0.88724  0.50073 -20.0 -20.0425
Troy St.             0.92483  0.49979 Texas St.            0.07517  0.50021  23.5  23.4878
Western Kentucky     0.66664  0.49986 UTEP                 0.33336  0.50014   7.0   6.9917

testing

NFL
Tennessee +6.5, 66% 0-0 to date, now 1-0
Pittsburgh -3.5, 61%, 1-0 to date, posted after game
Cincinnati -6, 57%, 0-1 to date, now 0-2

69% 1-2
58% 1-2
57% 0-1

last week was bad for these too.

These have a 61% chance of covering: now 5-4
LSU -12
Purdue -10.5
Appalachian St. -19.5

These have 58% chance of covering: now 9-9
New Mexico +13
Bowling Green +6.5
North Carolina +9.5
Akron +11
Miami FL +2.5
East Carolina +11.5
California +4

These have 55% chance of covering: now 0-7
Colorado +6.5
South Alabama +7

These have 55% chance of covering: to date 5-4
South Carolina +6.5
Illinois +17.5
Liberty +24

NFL Week 10

The NFL numbers are doing much better than college. A 2-1 week brought the season record up to 15-12, 5-4 on the top game. Straight up probabilities are doing 3 games better than expected, ATS 6 games worse. Expect 10-5 and 8-7 next week.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Green Bay            0.67860  0.43114 Miami                0.32140  0.56886  10.0   6.5777
LA Rams              0.71193  0.45660 Seattle              0.28807  0.54340  10.0   7.8596
Tennessee            0.37357  0.53994 New England          0.62643  0.46006  -6.5  -4.5309
Chicago              0.72420  0.53910 Detroit              0.27580  0.46090   6.5   8.4358
Chicago              0.72001  0.53584 Detroit              0.27999  0.46416   6.5   8.2755
Cincinnati           0.37858  0.53273 New Orleans          0.62142  0.46727  -6.0  -4.3806
San Francisco        0.62038  0.52756 N.Y. Giants          0.37962  0.47244   3.0   4.3674
N.Y. Jets            0.70966  0.52618 Buffalo              0.29034  0.47382   6.5   7.7918
Pittsburgh           0.62278  0.51686 Carolina             0.37722  0.48314   3.5   4.3232
Philadelphia         0.67314  0.48467 Dallas               0.32686  0.51533   7.0   6.2486
Indianapolis         0.60213  0.51379 Jacksonville         0.39787  0.48621   3.0   3.6831
Oakland              0.23682  0.49166 LA Chargers          0.76318  0.50834 -10.0 -10.4176
Cleveland            0.38373  0.50795 Atlanta              0.61627  0.49205  -4.5  -4.1108
Tampa Bay            0.57559  0.49420 Washington           0.42441  0.50580   3.0   2.7129
Kansas City          0.88014  0.50114 Arizona              0.11986  0.49886  17.0  17.0569

NCAA Week 11

Last week was another bad week in the NCAA, 1-4. Season totals are only 20-29-1. 4-5-1 on the top game. As I believe I mentioned last week I believe the evidence is saying that the computer average is not a good ATS measure. Straight up probabilities were dead on the expected value last week. ATS was -3/5. So for the year Straight up is doing 4 games better than expected while ATS 33 games worse. This week expect to go 47-14 and 33-28

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Arkansas             0.11449  0.37738 LSU                  0.88551  0.62262 -13.5 -20.9049
Utah                 0.74757  0.60877 Oregon               0.25243  0.39123   4.5  10.8144
Duke                 0.83509  0.60594 North Carolina       0.16491  0.39406  10.0  16.2304
Nebraska             0.75708  0.40726 Illinois             0.24292  0.59274  17.0  11.5705
Texas Tech           0.56256  0.57897 Texas                0.43744  0.42103  -2.0   2.5884
NC St.               0.82162  0.42650 Wake Forest          0.17838  0.57350  19.5  15.2225
Coastal Carolina     0.44296  0.57129 Arkansas St.         0.55704  0.42871  -6.5  -2.3608
Notre Dame           0.89319  0.57127 Florida St.          0.10681  0.42873  16.5  20.6580
Buffalo              0.92156  0.56995 Kent                 0.07844  0.43005  20.0  24.1358
Tennessee            0.28220  0.43121 Kentucky             0.71780  0.56879  -5.5  -9.4949
Virginia             0.88014  0.43746 Liberty              0.11986  0.56254  23.5  19.8273
Rutgers              0.02152  0.55568 Michigan             0.97848  0.44432 -39.0 -35.6555
Eastern Mich.        0.71932  0.44474 Akron                0.28068  0.55526  12.5   9.3361
UAB                  0.82040  0.55195 Southern Miss.       0.17960  0.44805  12.0  14.9998
Boston College       0.15954  0.55187 Clemson              0.84046  0.44813 -19.5 -16.4874
Old Dominion         0.15435  0.44998 North Texas          0.84565  0.55002 -14.5 -17.4594
UTEP                 0.16695  0.45209 Middle Tenn.         0.83305  0.54791 -13.5 -16.3102
Connecticut          0.15915  0.54732 SMU                  0.84085  0.45268 -19.5 -16.7341
Central Mich.        0.73036  0.54492 Bowling Green        0.26964  0.45508   7.5  10.0992
Central Florida      0.94944  0.54321 Navy                 0.05056  0.45679  25.0  27.5266
Missouri             0.80488  0.45904 Vanderbilt           0.19512  0.54096  16.5  14.1312
Michigan St.         0.47152  0.53968 Ohio St.             0.52848  0.46032  -3.5  -1.1904
Houston              0.56643  0.46082 Temple               0.43357  0.53918   5.0   2.7395
Georgia Southern     0.51830  0.53902 Troy St.             0.48170  0.46098  -1.5   0.7513
Alabama              0.90032  0.46377 Mississippi St.      0.09968  0.53623  23.5  21.3908
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.76485  0.46415 Georgia St.          0.23515  0.53585  14.0  11.9233
Texas A&M            0.75241  0.46606 Mississippi          0.24759  0.53394  13.0  11.0528
USC                  0.66570  0.53372 California           0.33430  0.46628   5.0   6.9344
Texas St.            0.09370  0.46631 Appalachian St.      0.90630  0.53369 -20.5 -22.4847
Northern Ill.        0.53906  0.46682 Toledo               0.46094  0.53318   3.5   1.5938
Indiana              0.49189  0.46808 Maryland             0.50811  0.53192   1.5  -0.3287
Pittsburgh           0.61414  0.53158 Virginia Tech        0.38586  0.46842   3.0   4.8379
Massachusetts        0.23345  0.53128 BYU                  0.76655  0.46872 -14.0 -12.1758
Memphis              0.80158  0.46886 Tulsa                0.19842  0.53114  15.5  13.7148
Georgia              0.83080  0.53057 Auburn               0.16920  0.46943  14.0  15.7677
Florida Atlantic     0.86702  0.46984 Western Kentucky     0.13298  0.53016  20.5  18.7357
Georgia Tech         0.54336  0.47080 Miami (Fla.)         0.45664  0.52920   3.5   1.8057
Louisiana Tech       0.93984  0.52741 Rice                 0.06016  0.47259  24.5  26.1012
Tulane               0.81735  0.52739 East Carolina        0.18265  0.47261  13.5  15.0938
Stanford             0.93763  0.52650 Oregon St.           0.06237  0.47350  24.0  25.5401
Oklahoma             0.88147  0.47400 Oklahoma St.         0.11853  0.52600  21.0  19.4960
Colorado             0.32639  0.47693 Washington St.       0.67361  0.52307  -6.0  -7.3262
Arizona St.          0.81392  0.52079 UCLA                 0.18608  0.47921  13.5  14.7021
Iowa St.             0.82866  0.51990 Baylor               0.17134  0.48010  14.5  15.6513
Miami (Ohio)         0.40522  0.51982 Ohio                 0.59478  0.48018  -5.0  -3.8665
Florida              0.60906  0.48222 South Carolina       0.39094  0.51778   5.5   4.4815
South Alabama        0.36725  0.51677 Louisiana-Monroe     0.63275  0.48323  -6.5  -5.5351
West Va.             0.77382  0.51633 TCU                  0.22618  0.48367  11.5  12.4467
San Diego St.        0.90034  0.48598 UNLV                 0.09966  0.51402  22.5  21.6790
Minnesota            0.22545  0.48678 Purdue               0.77455  0.51322 -12.0 -12.7751
Air Force            0.78151  0.48679 New Mexico           0.21849  0.51321  13.5  12.7387
Texas-San Antonio    0.28426  0.51308 Florida Intl.        0.71574  0.48692 -10.0  -9.2499
Utah St.             0.96472  0.51147 San Jose St.         0.03528  0.48853  31.0  31.6848
Iowa                 0.72969  0.49076 Northwestern         0.27031  0.50924  10.5   9.9689
Syracuse             0.88954  0.50893 Louisville           0.11046  0.49107  21.0  21.5344
Penn St.             0.71885  0.50746 Wisconsin            0.28115  0.49254   9.0   9.4284
Kansas St.           0.73055  0.49325 Kansas               0.26945  0.50675  10.5  10.1100
Boise St.            0.44793  0.50613 Fresno St.           0.55207  0.49387  -2.5  -2.1468
Cincinnati           0.79349  0.50518 South Florida        0.20651  0.49482  14.0  14.3087
Marshall             0.80056  0.50165 Charlotte            0.19944  0.49835  14.0  14.0958
Nevada               0.79975  0.49875 Colorado St.         0.20025  0.50125  14.0  13.9273

Last minute angles

Here are this weeks last minute angles. Week 2 did much better than the first week.

The NCAA numbers sucked yesterday, here is NFL
Rams -2, 69% 1-1
Minnesota -5, 61%, 0-0
Tampa Bay +5.5, 58 %, 1-1

These have a 61% chance of covering: now 4-2
None this week

These have 58% chance of covering: 2-3 last week: 5-5 to date, 5-6
Texas-San Antonio +21.5

These have 55% chance of covering: 0-4 to date, 0-5
Kentucky +9.5

These have 55% chance of covering: 2-1 to date, 3-3
BYU +13.5
Louisville +39.5
Missouri +6.5

NFL Week 9

It has been a very see-saw week in the NFL. Seems to go back and forth between 3-0 and 0-3. 3-0 last week raises season total to 13-11 on the top 3 and 4-4 for the top game. Compared to expected values the straight up numbers are now +3 while ATS is -7. This week expect to see 8-5 and 7-6.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

New England          0.72833  0.55180 Green Bay            0.27167  0.44820   6.0  8.55945
Buffalo              0.29715  0.54695 Chicago              0.70285  0.45305 -10.0 -7.65648
San Francisco        0.63952  0.54054 Oakland              0.36048  0.45946   3.0  4.99305
Washington           0.59793  0.54027 Atlanta              0.40207  0.45973   1.5  3.48544
Carolina             0.69973  0.52794 Tampa Bay            0.30027  0.47206   6.0  7.37832
Miami                0.55103  0.47508 N.Y. Jets            0.44897  0.52492   3.0  1.78066
Seattle              0.57203  0.52109 LA Chargers          0.42797  0.47891   1.5  2.53518
New Orleans          0.51543  0.48081 LA Rams              0.48457  0.51919   1.5  0.54989
Baltimore            0.56198  0.48334 Pittsburgh           0.43802  0.51666   3.0  2.18166
Cleveland            0.24234  0.48428 Kansas City          0.75766  0.51572  -9.0 -9.77205
Minnesota            0.65051  0.50691 Detroit              0.34949  0.49309   5.0  5.33699
Denver               0.54114  0.49859 Houston              0.45886  0.50141   1.5  1.43135
Dallas               0.66606  0.49914 Tennessee            0.33394  0.50086   6.0  5.95811

NCAA week 10

Last week was the first positive week for the NCAA in a month. A 4-1 record raises the season record to 19-25-1 in the top 5 and 4-4-1 on the top game. I had predicted a less accurate than typical straight up week and it ended up being even worse than expected. But slightly better ATS. Now +4 straight up for the season and -29.5 ATS. This week has a lot of games, expect 44-17 and 33-28.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Army                 0.80265  0.62072 Air Force            0.19735  0.37928   7.0  14.1080
LSU                  0.29551  0.59211 Alabama              0.70449  0.40789 -14.5  -9.0634
Ohio St.             0.91253  0.58800 Nebraska             0.08747  0.41200  17.5  22.6642
Louisiana-Monroe     0.22538  0.41376 Georgia Southern     0.77462  0.58624  -7.5 -12.5484
Texas Tech           0.29459  0.57826 Oklahoma             0.70541  0.42174 -13.5  -8.9378
Purdue               0.46636  0.42427 Iowa                 0.53364  0.57573   3.0  -1.3712
Middle Tenn.         0.84767  0.56877 Western Kentucky     0.15233  0.43123  13.5  17.5743
Washington St.       0.80417  0.56834 California           0.19583  0.43166  10.0  13.9447
Tulsa                0.78543  0.43186 Connecticut          0.21457  0.56814  17.5  13.4734
Massachusetts        0.45446  0.43309 Liberty              0.54554  0.56691   2.0  -1.8851
Michigan             0.65693  0.43498 Penn St.             0.34307  0.56502  10.5   6.7109
North Carolina       0.28322  0.43963 Georgia Tech         0.71678  0.56037  -6.0  -9.5153
Mississippi St.      0.87813  0.44043 Louisiana Tech       0.12187  0.55957  23.5  19.9735
Washington           0.65845  0.44182 Stanford             0.34155  0.55818  10.0   6.6466
Cincinnati           0.82795  0.55571 Navy                 0.17205  0.44429  13.0  16.3071
Georgia St.          0.70263  0.55535 Texas St.            0.29737  0.44465   5.5   8.6960
Florida Intl.        0.64480  0.55436 Florida Atlantic     0.35520  0.44564   3.0   6.1633
Western Mich.        0.50292  0.55395 Ohio                 0.49708  0.44605  -3.0   0.1200
Buffalo              0.72367  0.54881 Miami (Ohio)         0.27633  0.45119   7.0   9.8352
SMU                  0.24479  0.54733 Houston              0.75521  0.45267 -14.0 -11.2724
Miami (Fla.)         0.66269  0.45338 Duke                 0.33731  0.54662   9.5   6.8193
Mississippi          0.43538  0.45408 South Carolina       0.56462  0.54592   0.0  -2.6382
Texas                0.48962  0.45818 West Va.             0.51038  0.54182   2.0  -0.4329
Southern Miss.       0.37456  0.46047 Marshall             0.62544  0.53953  -3.0  -5.2931
Hawaii               0.15997  0.53618 Utah St.             0.84003  0.46382 -19.0 -16.8746
Northwestern         0.32403  0.53603 Notre Dame           0.67597  0.46397  -9.5  -7.4280
East Carolina        0.25449  0.53228 Memphis              0.74551  0.46772 -13.0 -11.1125
Akron                0.39810  0.53179 Northern Ill.        0.60190  0.46821  -6.0  -4.1778
Virginia Tech        0.41029  0.46956 Boston College       0.58971  0.53044  -2.0  -3.7688
Clemson              0.98576  0.53035 Louisville           0.01424  0.46965  38.5  40.3643
Auburn               0.55506  0.47025 Texas A&M            0.44494  0.52975   4.0   2.2796
Kentucky             0.33735  0.52773 Georgia              0.66265  0.47227  -8.5  -6.8982
Maryland             0.40458  0.47416 Michigan St.         0.59542  0.52584  -2.5  -3.9982
Oregon St.           0.17436  0.52542 USC                  0.82564  0.47458 -17.0 -15.5257
Tennessee            0.87601  0.47482 Charlotte            0.12399  0.52518  21.0  19.5249
Central Florida      0.76267  0.52497 Temple               0.23733  0.47503  10.5  11.9552
NC St.               0.73228  0.52443 Florida St.          0.26772  0.47557   9.0  10.4280
Oregon               0.71292  0.47681 UCLA                 0.28708  0.52319  10.5   9.1659
Arkansas St.         0.82092  0.48109 South Alabama        0.17908  0.51891  16.0  14.9152
Baylor               0.34809  0.51868 Oklahoma St.         0.65191  0.48132  -7.5  -6.4211
Eastern Mich.        0.81070  0.51596 Central Mich.        0.18930  0.48404  13.5  14.4195
Wisconsin            0.95732  0.51533 Rutgers              0.04268  0.48467  28.0  28.8947
Kansas               0.17627  0.48488 Iowa St.             0.82373  0.51512 -14.5 -15.3756
Florida              0.64972  0.51469 Missouri             0.35028  0.48531   5.5   6.3498
UNLV                 0.06068  0.48557 Fresno St.           0.93932  0.51443 -26.0 -26.8563
Arizona St.          0.31566  0.48674 Utah                 0.68434  0.51326  -7.0  -7.7593
South Florida        0.67715  0.51262 Tulane               0.32285  0.48738   7.0   7.7373
Wyoming              0.80080  0.51193 San Jose St.         0.19920  0.48807  13.5  14.1967
New Mexico           0.27358  0.51062 San Diego St.        0.72642  0.48938 -10.5  -9.8871
Arizona              0.55787  0.48951 Colorado             0.44213  0.51049   3.0   2.3943
Troy St.             0.72895  0.48995 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.27105  0.51005  10.5   9.9229
Coastal Carolina     0.19898  0.50995 Appalachian St.      0.80102  0.49005 -15.0 -14.4146
Bowling Green        0.52212  0.49071 Kent                 0.47788  0.50929   1.5   0.9518
Rice                 0.53633  0.50896 UTEP                 0.46367  0.49104   1.0   1.5210
Toledo               0.86419  0.49231 Ball St.             0.13581  0.50769  18.5  18.0564
Boise St.            0.78280  0.49453 BYU                  0.21720  0.50547  13.0  12.6862
Virginia             0.67407  0.49704 Pittsburgh           0.32593  0.50296   7.5   7.3300
Illinois             0.28331  0.50250 Minnesota            0.71669  0.49750  -9.5  -9.3562
UAB                  0.90810  0.50232 Texas-San Antonio    0.09190  0.49768  22.0  22.1346
TCU                  0.68550  0.49920 Kansas St.           0.31450  0.50080   8.0   7.9537
Wake Forest          0.36080  0.50024 Syracuse             0.63920  0.49976  -6.0  -5.9862

more testing

Call these angles based on going through past years of data. If they are true the should work at around the probability listed. If they were just random then they should revert back to the mean(50%) which would mean they should perform badly. (like last week).

NFL: 0-4 last week
Washington -1.5, 69% 0-1, now 1-1
Green Bay +7.5, 58% 0-1, now 1-1

These have a 61% chance of covering, 2-1 last week. now 4-2
Massachusetts -4
San Diego St. -1.5
UAB -15

These have 58% chance of covering: 2-3 last week, now 5-5
BYU -6.5
Mississippi St. -1.5
Syracuse +2
Tulsa – 1
Utah St -20

These have 55% chance of covering:0-3 last wee, now 0-4
Florida St. +17

These have 55% chance of covering: 1-1 last week, now 2-1
Tennesse +8.5