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2018 Season

Just letting everyone know that I will be monitoring the 2018 season. However the NFL preseason will not be further collected, updated, or scored until the 3rd or 4th week.

NFL Week 17

I am back from vacation and am trying to get everything caught up. Last week the top 3 picks were 1-1-1.
The season record is no 22-25-1 for top 3 and 8-8 for top game.
The win probabilities are starting to outperform expectations, now +8. The ATS numbers are reasonably in line, now -1.5 games off expectations for the season. This weekk the expectations ars 11-5 and 10-6. But there are lots of irregularities with many good teams underdogs for resting players.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

LA Rams              0.80838  0.86682 San Francisco        0.19162  0.13318  -3.5  12.7392
Philadelphia         0.73502  0.79917 Dallas               0.26498  0.20083  -3.0   8.9466
Denver               0.37432  0.28461 Kansas City          0.62568  0.71539   3.5  -4.5085
Pittsburgh           0.89683  0.71175 Cleveland            0.10317  0.28825  10.5  18.8155
Tennessee            0.41840  0.33802 Jacksonville         0.58160  0.66198   3.0  -2.9164
Miami                0.54328  0.61401 Buffalo              0.45672  0.38599  -2.5   1.5006
Indianapolis         0.52238  0.39585 Houston              0.47762  0.60415   4.5   0.7887
Detroit              0.62172  0.43568 Green Bay            0.37828  0.56432   6.5   4.2696
Atlanta              0.56818  0.45275 Carolina             0.43182  0.54725   4.0   2.3650
N.Y. Giants          0.37380  0.45738 Washington           0.62620  0.54262  -3.0  -4.4949
Minnesota            0.81072  0.54244 Chicago              0.18928  0.45756  11.0  12.5148
Tampa Bay            0.29601  0.46824 New Orleans          0.70399  0.53176  -6.5  -7.6357
Seattle              0.71466  0.46870 Arizona              0.28534  0.53130   9.0   7.9051
Baltimore            0.76806  0.52617 Cincinnati           0.23194  0.47383   9.5  10.4354
New England          0.86176  0.51686 N.Y. Jets            0.13824  0.48314  15.0  15.6062
LA Chargers          0.72156  0.50609 Oakland              0.27844  0.49391   8.0   8.2135

NFL week 16

Merry Christmas everyone. Expect things to be later this week.
Season record is now 21-24 on the top 3 and 7-8 on the top game. Season long wide expectations are doing 6 games better than expected straight up and 1/2 game better than expected ATS.
This week look for 11-5 and 9-7. I’m posting these much closer to game time this week, so that might have some impact.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Chicago              0.75330  0.61653 Cleveland            0.24670  0.38347   5.5   9.6952
San Francisco        0.29468  0.38444 Jacksonville         0.70532  0.61556  -3.5  -7.6817
Philadelphia         0.81703  0.61363 Oakland              0.18297  0.38637   9.0  13.2240
Green Bay            0.35955  0.59631 Minnesota            0.64045  0.40369  -8.5  -5.0660
N.Y. Jets            0.39037  0.58536 LA Chargers          0.60963  0.41464  -7.0  -3.9446
Arizona              0.64880  0.56633 N.Y. Giants          0.35120  0.43367   3.0   5.3304
Washington           0.64715  0.56420 Denver               0.35285  0.43580   3.0   5.2447
New England          0.81111  0.54018 Buffalo              0.18889  0.45982  11.0  12.4206
Kansas City          0.73308  0.46147 Miami                0.26692  0.53853  10.0   8.6544
Tennessee            0.31786  0.46212 LA Rams              0.68214  0.53788  -5.5  -6.8814
Houston              0.30714  0.53433 Pittsburgh           0.69286  0.46567  -8.5  -7.2589
Baltimore            0.84336  0.53433 Indianapolis         0.15664  0.46567  13.5  14.7611
Cincinnati           0.37923  0.47653 Detroit              0.62077  0.52347  -3.5  -4.3284
Dallas               0.58516  0.48487 Seattle              0.41484  0.51513   3.5   2.9753
New Orleans          0.65334  0.51333 Atlanta              0.34666  0.48667   5.0   5.4630
Carolina             0.75215  0.50286 Tampa Bay            0.24785  0.49714   9.5   9.6009

NFL Week 15

Last week the top 3 picks went 1-2, but the other games went 10-2. So for the season the top 3 picks of the week are 19-23. That is 45%. Strip out the top 3 games and the rest are 59%. So this year would have been great if you just ignored the top games. You can probably make an argument that the top games are off because there is some form of information about those games that the computers don’t know about. The top games is 6-8, even worse than the top 3.
Another tip if you want to try playing something ATS is look at the computer adjusted line. It is generally good year in and year out and is hitting 60% this year. Another very strong trend that we seem to observe every year is that the updated line does amazingly well against the midweek line. You can’t really play this in reality, you can use the current line to bet against the line from 2 days ago. But what this is saying is that when the line moves late in the week it tends to be in the correct direction. Which seems to make sense.
As for season expectations, The ATS numbers are almost exactly as the numbers predict. They are now doing 1 game better than expectations. Straight up they are doing 5 games better than expected. This week the expectations are 10-6 and 8-7.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

N.Y. Giants          0.20387  0.36034 Philadelphia         0.79613  0.63966  -7.0 -12.3216
Carolina             0.69530  0.61645 Green Bay            0.30470  0.38355   3.0   7.1369
Cleveland            0.22776  0.39566 Baltimore            0.77224  0.60434  -7.0 -10.8456
Pittsburgh           0.50895  0.59447 New England          0.49105  0.40553  -3.0   0.3107
San Francisco        0.46271  0.42055 Tennessee            0.53729  0.57945   1.5  -1.3137
Indianapolis         0.50480  0.57544 Denver               0.49520  0.42456  -2.5   0.1687
Minnesota            0.81328  0.56418 Cincinnati           0.18672  0.43582  10.5  12.8291
Seattle              0.51518  0.44438 LA Rams              0.48482  0.55562   2.5   0.5348
Oakland              0.45170  0.53741 Dallas               0.54830  0.46259  -3.0  -1.6912
Jacksonville         0.76449  0.46426 Houston              0.23551  0.53574  11.5  10.2272
Tampa Bay            0.36727  0.53543 Atlanta              0.63273  0.46457  -6.0  -4.7535
New Orleans          0.83597  0.47518 N.Y. Jets            0.16403  0.52482  15.0  14.1025
Detroit              0.66810  0.51559 Chicago              0.33190  0.48441   5.5   6.0434
Kansas City          0.49643  0.49643 LA Chargers          0.50357  0.50357   0.0  -0.1273
Washington           0.62825  0.50123 Arizona              0.37175  0.49877   4.5   4.5427
Buffalo              0.58325   .      Miami                0.41675   .         .    2.9271

NFL Week 14

The poor season continues with another 1-2 week last week. Season numbers are 18-21 on the top 3 and 6-7 and the top game. But yet these numbers are 54.5% across all games. So jut taking the top games seems to be the problem this year. We continue to slightly outperform straight up expections, +7 on the season, and fairly close ATS, -1.5 games. This week look for 10-6 and 8-6.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Houston              0.71231  0.63507 San Francisco        0.28769  0.36493   3.0   7.8216
Cleveland            0.32674  0.40487 Green Bay            0.67326  0.59513  -3.0  -6.4692
Atlanta              0.44958  0.42170 New Orleans          0.55042  0.57830   1.0  -1.7898
Arizona              0.47445  0.56047 Tennessee            0.52555  0.43953  -3.0  -0.8891
LA Rams              0.51738  0.44541 Philadelphia         0.48262  0.55459   2.5   0.6025
Carolina             0.46787  0.55373 Minnesota            0.53213  0.44627  -3.0  -1.1212
Cincinnati           0.63360  0.44949 Chicago              0.36640  0.55051   6.5   4.7382
Kansas City          0.65502  0.54421 Oakland              0.34498  0.45579   4.0   5.5432
Pittsburgh           0.60987  0.46993 Baltimore            0.39013  0.53007   5.0   3.9357
Denver               0.45556  0.48348 N.Y. Jets            0.54444  0.51652  -1.0  -1.5897
LA Chargers          0.67757  0.51466 Washington           0.32243  0.48534   6.0   6.5201
Miami                0.22185  0.49203 New England          0.77815  0.50797 -11.0 -11.2947
Jacksonville         0.57629  0.50532 Seattle              0.42371  0.49468   2.5   2.6861
N.Y. Giants          0.38356  0.49664 Dallas               0.61644  0.50336  -4.0  -4.1172
Buffalo              0.68947   .      Indianapolis         0.31053   .         .    6.8681
Tampa Bay            0.46508   .      Detroit              0.53492   .         .   -1.2176

NFL Week 13

Another losing week in the NFL as well, 1-2 for the top 3. Season record is now 17-19. Top game is 6-6.
Season expectations are still fairly good, +4 straight up and -2.5 ATS. This week loook for 10-6 straight up and 9-7 ATS.


home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Chicago              0.70545  0.62876 San Francisco        0.29455  0.37124   3.0   7.6588
Tennessee            0.56131  0.37740 Houston              0.43869  0.62260   6.5   2.1494
Green Bay            0.61273  0.61273 Tampa Bay            0.38727  0.38727   0.0   3.9779
Oakland              0.65420  0.40296 N.Y. Giants          0.34580  0.59704   9.0   5.5579
Atlanta              0.49406  0.40934 Minnesota            0.50594  0.59066   3.0  -0.2083
Miami                0.54760  0.58994 Denver               0.45240  0.41006  -1.5   1.6642
Dallas               0.53338  0.57557 Washington           0.46662  0.42443  -1.5   1.1768
Jacksonville         0.79237  0.56457 Indianapolis         0.20763  0.43543   9.5  11.8683
New Orleans          0.67169  0.54861 Carolina             0.32831  0.45139   4.5   6.2049
LA Chargers          0.84842  0.53861 Cleveland            0.15158  0.46139  13.5  14.9031
Baltimore            0.55267  0.46742 Detroit              0.44733  0.53258   3.0   1.8548
Seattle              0.37978  0.53185 Philadelphia         0.62022  0.46815  -5.5  -4.3611
Arizona              0.30531  0.47479 LA Rams              0.69469  0.52521  -6.5  -7.4218
Cincinnati           0.33944  0.47785 Pittsburgh           0.66056  0.52215  -5.0  -5.7749
Buffalo              0.28862  0.51573 New England          0.71138  0.48427  -8.5  -7.9385
N.Y. Jets            0.40657  0.50265 Kansas City          0.59343  0.49735  -3.5  -3.4042

NCAA Week 14

I think this goes down for the worst season ever for these college ATS numbers. A 1-4 record on the top 5 games last weeks drops the season record to 26-38-1, under 41%. I hope you are picking opposite them. The games as a whole are 48%, so the are greatly under performing at the top. Last week the system average was one of 13 systems that did worse that 40% ATS across all games. The straight up numbers continue to slightly over perform, now doing 9 games better than expected, while the ATS a whopping 58.5 games below expectation. Championship expectations are 10-6 and 9-7.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Toledo               0.82268  0.35946 Akron                0.17732  0.64054  21.5  15.4807
USC                  0.47600  0.37880 Stanford             0.52400  0.62120   4.0  -0.9691
Wisconsin            0.46714  0.61906 Ohio St.             0.53286  0.38094  -6.5  -1.3905
New Mexico St.       0.65528  0.42581 South Alabama        0.34472  0.57419   9.5   6.4711
Oklahoma             0.60985  0.43949 TCU                  0.39015  0.56051   7.0   4.5283
Georgia St.          0.60301  0.45835 Idaho                0.39699  0.54165   6.0   4.2841
Auburn               0.52272  0.46085 Georgia              0.47728  0.53915   2.5   0.9176
Florida St.          0.91800  0.46233 Louisiana-Monroe     0.08200  0.53767  27.0  25.2823
Clemson              0.67355  0.47048 Miami (Fla.)         0.32645  0.52952   8.5   7.2981
Coastal Carolina     0.45319  0.52600 Georgia Southern     0.54681  0.47400  -3.0  -1.9297
Boise St.            0.67778  0.48230 Fresno St.           0.32222  0.51770   8.5   7.7544
Arkansas St.         0.51651  0.51651 Troy St.             0.48349  0.48349   0.0   0.6647
Florida Intl.        0.53423  0.51019 Massachusetts        0.46577  0.48981   1.0   1.4234
Central Florida      0.65513  0.49051 Memphis              0.34487  0.50949   7.0   6.6062
Appalachian St.      0.79666  0.49156 Louisiana-Lafayette  0.20334  0.50844  14.5  14.1394
Florida Atlantic     0.75647  0.49832 North Texas          0.24353  0.50168  11.5  11.4307

NFL Week 12

The top 3 picks went 2-1 last week. The NFL picks are now 16-17 for the top 3 and 5-6 for the top game. Like in college the top picks are doing worse than across all games. Across all games these numbers are 54% ATS, which is pretty good. Overall the seem pretty accurate, doing 3 games better than expected straight up and only 2 games worse than expected ATS. I keep moving up the fivethirtyeight leaderboard. Now in the top 1%. this week should be good straight up, 11-5, but close ATS 9-7.
Green Bay is the top pick for the 4th consecutive week. You would think eventually the ratings would adjust to them being a different team without Rogers.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Pittsburgh           0.75252  0.37644 Green Bay            0.24748  0.62356  14.0   9.5800
Dallas               0.56846  0.61007 LA Chargers          0.43154  0.38993  -1.5   2.4166
LA Rams              0.46965  0.39934 New Orleans          0.53035  0.60066   2.5  -1.0642
Detroit              0.47645  0.54804 Minnesota            0.52355  0.45196  -2.5  -0.8214
Arizona              0.31294  0.45688 Jacksonville         0.68706  0.54312  -5.5  -7.0708
San Francisco        0.28481  0.45732 Seattle              0.71519  0.54268  -6.5  -8.0101
Washington           0.71209  0.54177 N.Y. Giants          0.28791  0.45823   6.5   7.9996
Indianapolis         0.43389  0.53392 Tennessee            0.56611  0.46608  -3.5  -2.3159
Baltimore            0.66398  0.47146 Houston              0.33602  0.52854   7.0   5.9875
Cincinnati           0.73161  0.52278 Cleveland            0.26839  0.47722   8.0   8.8153
N.Y. Jets            0.36841  0.52277 Carolina             0.63159  0.47723  -5.5  -4.7012
Atlanta              0.72384  0.47825 Tampa Bay            0.27616  0.52175   9.0   8.2433
Philadelphia         0.83736  0.51267 Chicago              0.16264  0.48733  13.5  13.9503
New England          0.86551  0.51248 Miami                0.13449  0.48752  16.0  16.4661
Kansas City          0.74595  0.49335 Buffalo              0.25405  0.50665   9.5   9.2664
Oakland              0.62986  0.50467 Denver               0.37014  0.49533   4.5   4.6649

NCAA Week 13

I forgot to get these posted yesterday but I don’t think anyone missed them. The results for the NCAA have been very consistently bad. 25-34-1 for the top 5. And the top game was wrong for the 6th consecutive week, dropping to 4-8. For some reason the top 5 are significantly under performing the picks as as a whole. The top 5 have been 42% while all picks are 48.5%. As for how they perform against expectations, straight up the are +7, while they are -49 ATS. This weeks expected values are 44-18 and 34-28

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Tennessee            0.64824  0.62491 Vanderbilt           0.35176  0.37509   1.0   6.1217
Middle Tenn.         0.65632  0.38588 Old Dominion         0.34368  0.61412  11.5   6.6828
Oklahoma             0.86414  0.38689 West Va.             0.13586  0.61311  22.5  17.8356
Charlotte            0.06365  0.39076 Florida Atlantic     0.93635  0.60924 -22.0 -26.8911
New Mexico St.       0.63314  0.39095 Idaho                0.36686  0.60905  10.0   5.5134
Pittsburgh           0.17650  0.39194 Miami (Fla.)         0.82350  0.60806 -11.0 -15.6093
Oregon               0.89439  0.40025 Oregon St.           0.10561  0.59975  25.0  20.7964
Michigan             0.31754  0.59587 Ohio St.             0.68246  0.40413 -12.0  -7.9400
Virginia             0.26381  0.40610 Virginia Tech        0.73619  0.59390  -6.5 -10.4191
San Jose St.         0.08192  0.40967 Wyoming              0.91808  0.59033 -20.0 -23.9248
UCLA                 0.58557  0.41294 California           0.41443  0.58706   7.0   3.4693
Oklahoma St.         0.98597  0.41319 Kansas               0.01403  0.58681  41.0  37.2774
Arizona St.          0.53233  0.58132 Arizona              0.46767  0.41868  -2.0   1.3074
Rice                 0.19676  0.41977 North Texas          0.80324  0.58023 -11.0 -14.4224
Tulsa                0.49513  0.58023 Temple               0.50487  0.41977  -3.5  -0.1990
Illinois             0.11503  0.42014 Northwestern         0.88497  0.57986 -16.5 -19.8297
Kansas St.           0.47958  0.42068 Iowa St.             0.52042  0.57932   2.5  -0.8597
Ball St.             0.19179  0.57904 Miami (Ohio)         0.80821  0.42096 -18.0 -14.6474
Texas                0.74649  0.57880 Texas Tech           0.25351  0.42120   7.5  10.7090
Akron                0.86411  0.57320 Kent                 0.13589  0.42680  15.0  18.0269
Marshall             0.64255  0.57163 Southern Miss.       0.35745  0.42837   3.0   5.9314
Mississippi St.      0.84071  0.57022 Mississippi          0.15929  0.42978  13.5  16.4113
Kentucky             0.33090  0.56542 Louisville           0.66910  0.43458 -10.0  -7.2643
Utah                 0.68624  0.43527 Colorado             0.31376  0.56473  10.5   7.8600
TCU                  0.94029  0.56362 Baylor               0.05971  0.43638  24.0  26.7510
Florida Intl.        0.49166  0.56284 Western Kentucky     0.50834  0.43716  -3.0  -0.3502
South Carolina       0.17883  0.44614 Clemson              0.82117  0.55386 -13.0 -15.2443
Central Florida      0.74935  0.55324 South Florida        0.25065  0.44676   9.0  11.2370
Purdue               0.61219  0.55267 Indiana              0.38781  0.44733   2.5   4.6691
Nebraska             0.33207  0.44838 Iowa                 0.66793  0.55162  -5.0  -7.1310
Eastern Mich.        0.81398  0.55143 Bowling Green        0.18602  0.44857  12.5  14.6168
Toledo               0.71953  0.45045 Western Mich.        0.28047  0.54955  11.5   9.4714
Houston              0.56159  0.45056 Navy                 0.43841  0.54944   4.5   2.4978
Florida              0.42197  0.54475 Florida St.          0.57803  0.45525  -5.0  -3.1827
Air Force            0.49287  0.45684 Utah St.             0.50713  0.54316   1.5  -0.2960
Rutgers              0.23260  0.54137 Michigan St.         0.76740  0.45863 -13.5 -11.8188
Minnesota            0.13050  0.46028 Wisconsin            0.86950  0.53972 -17.0 -18.6552
Georgia St.          0.37197  0.53917 Appalachian St.      0.62803  0.46083  -7.0  -5.3800
Memphis              0.94608  0.46191 East Carolina        0.05392  0.53809  28.5  26.9004
LSU                  0.70487  0.46579 Texas A&M            0.29513  0.53421  10.0   8.6248
Hawaii               0.39520  0.46752 BYU                  0.60480  0.53248  -3.0  -4.3267
Cincinnati           0.60274  0.46807 Connecticut          0.39726  0.53193   5.5   4.2060
Georgia Tech         0.27785  0.53118 Georgia              0.72215  0.46882 -11.0  -9.7106
Arkansas             0.34304  0.52844 Missouri             0.65696  0.47156  -8.0  -6.7995
NC St.               0.82218  0.47189 North Carolina       0.17782  0.52811  16.5  15.3298
Auburn               0.41694  0.52626 Alabama              0.58306  0.47374  -4.5  -3.4244
Wake Forest          0.74178  0.47608 Duke                 0.25822  0.52392  11.5  10.5267
Washington           0.72452  0.47958 Washington St.       0.27548  0.52042  10.5   9.6697
Louisiana-Monroe     0.32730  0.51910 Arkansas St.         0.67270  0.48090  -8.0  -7.2263
Maryland             0.09817  0.51709 Penn St.             0.90183  0.48291 -22.0 -21.2938
San Diego St.        0.90210  0.51636 New Mexico           0.09790  0.48364  20.5  21.1712
Stanford             0.43738  0.48475 Notre Dame           0.56262  0.51525  -2.0  -2.6406
Nevada               0.56030  0.48623 UNLV                 0.43970  0.51377   3.0   2.4438
Troy St.             0.93140  0.48663 Texas St.            0.06860  0.51337  24.5  23.9596
Syracuse             0.40259  0.48699 Boston College       0.59741  0.51301  -3.5  -4.0332
Fresno St.           0.34163  0.50659 Boise St.            0.65837  0.49341  -7.0  -6.7274
UAB                  0.88997  0.50528 UTEP                 0.11003  0.49472  20.5  20.7235
Buffalo              0.34043  0.49660 Ohio                 0.65957  0.50340  -6.5  -6.6375
SMU                  0.68863  0.49686 Tulane               0.31137  0.50314   8.0   7.8740
Central Mich.        0.42407  0.49802 Northern Ill.        0.57593  0.50198  -3.0  -3.0797
Louisiana Tech       0.53783  0.50080 Texas-San Antonio    0.46217  0.49920   1.5   1.5322
Louisiana-Lafayette  0.63521  0.50075 Georgia Southern     0.36479  0.49925   6.0   6.0327

NFL Week 11

The only bright side about the NFL numbers is that they are not as bad as the college numbers. Although if you look at them across all games the they are not that bad. Straight up they have done 2 games better than expected and ATS is only 2.5 games below expected. So that suggests on average all of these probabilities are pretty accurate in the NFL. I continue a slow climb up the fivethirtyeight leaderboard. I’m currently in the 98th percentile, in the top 350 out of 12,000+.
Last week the top three were 2-1, Raising the season record to 14-16. Top game is now 5-5. Expectations this week are 9-5 and 8-6. Green Bay without Aaron Rogers is the top game for the third week in a row. It has been 1-1 so far.

home                  p(win) p(cover) road                  p(win) p(cover)  line  lineavg

Green Bay            0.58321  0.63826 Baltimore            0.41679  0.36174  -2.0   2.9244
New Orleans          0.78509  0.60360 Washington           0.21491  0.39640   7.5  11.2393
Houston              0.64263  0.60210 Arizona              0.35737  0.39790   1.5   5.1369
Cleveland            0.22395  0.40677 Jacksonville         0.77605  0.59323  -7.5 -10.8817
Oakland              0.26862  0.43593 New England          0.73138  0.56407  -6.5  -8.8009
Dallas               0.44095  0.55532 Philadelphia         0.55905  0.44468  -4.0  -2.0656
Minnesota            0.51812  0.44722 LA Rams              0.48188  0.55278   2.5   0.6377
Pittsburgh           0.72923  0.54344 Tennessee            0.27077  0.45656   7.0   8.5234
Denver               0.53269  0.46081 Cincinnati           0.46731  0.53919   2.5   1.1365
N.Y. Giants          0.27067  0.53887 Kansas City          0.72933  0.46113 -10.0  -8.6222
LA Chargers          0.59253  0.48078 Buffalo              0.40747  0.51922   4.0   3.3170
Seattle              0.57023  0.48502 Atlanta              0.42977  0.51498   3.0   2.4747
Chicago              0.42386  0.50996 Detroit              0.57614  0.49004  -3.0  -2.6549
Miami                0.49278  0.49278 Tampa Bay            0.50722  0.50722   0.0  -0.2510