I am currently calculating five methods of obtaining a prediction for the total runs
scored per game.
| over_under | The run total line. |
| Method 3 | Simply the average number of runs scored per game at this stadium. |
| Method 2 | (PPGhome + ERAroad)/2 + (PPGroad + ERAhome)/2 |
| Method 1 | Similar to method 2 except using the starting pitcher's ERA rather than the team ERA |
| Method 4 | Same as method 2 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
| Method 5 | Same as method 1 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
And four ways of calculating run differential.
| Line | +/- means home/road is favored with odds of line/100 |
| Prediction 2 | (PPGhome + ERAroad)/2 - (PPGroad + ERAhome)/2 |
| Prediction 1 | Similar to method 2 except using the starting pitcher's ERA rather than the team ERA |
| Prediction 3 | Same as method 2 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
| Prediction 4 | Same as method 1 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
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